Recency bias can be difficult to overcome, but the only time you place bets on top teams and get value at the same time is when they’ve suffered a recent defeat.
This is just the fact of the matter.
Here are three teams I’m bundling into my college basketball parlay for Tuesday, Feb. 10.
College Basketball Parlay for Tuesday
- BYU -2.5
- Duke -15.5
- Gonzaga -20.5
Parlay Odds: +611 (DraftKings)
BYU vs Baylor Pick
Despite a four-game skid, there are plenty of reasons to believe in the Cougars.
Both KenPom and EvanMiya rank the BYU offense 10th nationally. AJ Dybantsa is averaging over 25 points per game in Big 12 play.
Most promisingly, the Cougs have held second-half leads against nationally ranked opponents Texas Tech and Houston over the past three weeks.
They’ve just failed to spring through the finish line tape, but that shouldn’t be a problem against Baylor.
The Bears have been in a nose-dive since early January. Five of Baylor’s last seven losses have come by double digits.
Scott Drew’s dynamic backcourt of Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou desperately needs a frontcourt complement.
Perhaps Drew and his staff can find one in the offseason, because his current bigs are stiffs. Baylor gets worked over on the defensive glass (256th), and Drew’s constant tinkering with the lineup hasn’t helped. The Bears are barely inside the top 200 in average height, and Drew doesn’t trust a single player taller than 6-foot-9 to log serious minutes.
Even if BYU’s perimeter shots aren’t falling, the Cougars should get double-digit offensive rebounds and run away from Baylor in the second half.
Pick: BYU -2.5
Duke vs Pitt Pick
As a college basketball community, I think we’re underrating the job that Jon Scheyer has done in Durham.
Replacing a coaching legend is never easy. Look no further than Adrian Autry at Syracuse to understand the pitfalls of following a coaching icon.
But Scheyer has made it look effortless, increasing his ACC win total in each of his first three seasons while leading Duke to the Round of 32, the Elite Eight, and the Final Four.
Scheyer has also been a gambler’s best friend, covering 60.8% of his games, the best mark in the ACC since his arrival in 2022.
Coming off an ACC regular-season loss has been an ideal time to target the Devils.
Under Scheyer, Duke is 9-1 SU in ACC regular-season play following a conference loss. The Devils have won those games by an average margin of 16 points.
Meanwhile, Pitt is rudderless, complete with a lame duck coach, a 2-9 record in ACC play, and a 10-14 ATS record at the window.
The Panthers have attempted to slow the pace down (337th), but that hasn’t worked against skilled offensive teams like Louisville and SMU in recent weeks. Duke only scores 10 fast-break points per game, and it’s comfortable playing through Cameron Boozer in the post, which means a slower game won’t help the Panthers.
EvanMiya catalogues which teams play up and play down to their competition. When it comes to struggling against quality opponents, Pitt ranks 364th nationally.
This should be a runaway for a Duke team looking to get right after its tough loss to North Carolina.
Pick: Duke -15.5
Washington State vs Gonzaga Pick
Gonzaga was upset last week by Portland, a truly stunning outcome out of the WCC.
But here’s something I know about Mark Few: when his teams lose, they go on a warpath — especially when they get to lick their wounds in Spokane.
In Gonzaga’s first game back home following a loss, the Bulldogs have won 23 straight, demolishing their competition by an average margin of 25 points per game. That streak reaches back to 2015.
Washington State has been dreadful on the road (2-8 SU), particularly when it comes to shooting the basketball. The Cougars' effective field goal percentage dips by 7.4% on the road, and they fail to apply pressure to opposing ball handlers. Wazzu ranks outside the top 290 nationally in turnover rate and 3-point shooting allowed.
With little to no resistance, Gonzaga will destroy Washington State just as it did earlier this year, when the Bulldogs covered as a 16.5-point favorite in Pullman.
Pick: Gonzaga -20.5
