The ACC-Big Ten Challenge rolls along Tuesday evening, with Duke hosting Indiana after the Blue Devils' thrilling loss to Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational. But first, Nevada visits Loyola-Chicago in the Mountain West-Missouri Valley Challenge — a rematch of their thrilling Sweet 16 contest from a campaign ago.
How will these matchups boil down? Let's dig in.
>> All odds as of 11 p.m. ET on Monday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and track your bets
Betting odds: Nevada Wolf Pack at Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
- Spread: Nevada -5.5
- Over/under: 149
- Tip: 8 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPNews/Watch ESPN
After ranking seventh overall in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AjO) last season, the Wolf Pack (4-1 against the spread) enter this game with the highest AjO in the country despite point guard Lindsey Drew still recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon.
Without three impactful defensive pieces from last season — Ben Richardson, Donte Ingram and Aundre Jackson — the Ramblers (2-4 ATS) will struggle to stick with Nevada's lengthy position-less lineup that's led by the 6-foot-7 Caleb Martin (21.0 points per game). Not only is Martin the Wolf Pack's top scorer, but he also owns the 95th-highest Assist Rate (31.1%) in Division I.
What Eric Musselman's unit didn't present a season ago was a boatload of size in the frontcourt. The program reeled in two big men transfers and 6-foot-11 five-star Jordan Brown. Although Brown has yet to assert himself for the bulk of playing time, Loyola-Chicago's tallest player within its consistent rotation is the 6-foot-9 Cameron Krutwig.
Nevada should have its way on the glass, yielding the 58th-lowest Offensive Rebounding Rate (24.4%) in the nation, while controlling the tempo with its quick-paced attack (16.4 seconds per possession). Portland transfer Jazz Johnson has played a major role in that department, generating the third-highest Offensive Rating in the county.
The Wolf Pack are 14-10-2 (58.3%) ATS over the last regular season-plus when laying at least 5.5 points, per our Bet Labs data. They'll build off that while avenging their loss from last March in the process.
THE PICK: Nevada -5.5
Betting odds: Indiana Hoosiers at Duke Blue Devils
- Spread: Duke -14.5
- Over/under: 158.5
- Tip: 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN
Blue Devils' product Jay Williams has finally stopped preaching that his alma mater could beat the Cavaliers following Duke's loss to Gonzaga.
Shutting down the undefeated talk will likely be the best thing for Duke (3-3 ATS), placing less pressure on one of the best freshmen classes in college basketball history.
Expect the Blue Devils' second-rated AjO to bounce back against Indiana (2-3 ATS), which slipped up defensively in a road loss at Arkansas and was involved in a back-and-forth affair against a woeful UC Davis bunch in its last matchup.
The Hoosiers don't have anyone who can matchup with the 6-foot-7, 285-pound Zion Williamson, who should be a centerpiece of Duke's game plan after waiting until the second half against Gonzaga to truly assert his physical presence. In fact, fellow freshman R.J. Barrett has racked up 8.3 more shots per game than Williamson, proving Mike Krzyzewski needs to involve Williamson earlier in games.
On the flip side, Indiana has the third-highest 2-point percentage (63.4%) in the country, but it won't deliver the same success against Duke's sizable frontcourt, which owns the 10th-highest block rate.
Williamson and the 6-foot-11 Marques Bolden should dominate defensively against a group with 58.1% of its scoring from inside the arc.
According to Bet Labs, Duke is 6-3 (66.7%) ATS when favored by at least 14.5 points over the last regular season-plus. I expect that trend on Tuesday.
THE PICK: Duke -14.5; Over 157.5
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
