College Basketball Player Props: 3 Picks for Feb. 19, Including Virginia’s Jayden Gardner
Photo by Nicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jayden Gardner (Virginia)
With March just a few short weeks away, we’re starting to heat up at just the right time.
With back-to-back winning weeks, our record for this piece is now sitting at 7-8.
This is one of the last full Saturday slates, and there are many props to capitalize on, but today, I found three that are under the radar.
So, let’s make it three winning weeks in a row and get in the green.
The Hokies are set to square off with the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, and it has the potential to be a barnburner. Rather surprisingly, Virginia Tech is second in the country in 3-point percentage, and a big part of that has been Hunter Cattoor.
The junior guard has quickly become one of the best sharpshooters in the nation by shooting 45.1% from 3.
Though, as always, it’s not just about making shots that are important to hitting overs — it’s the volume of attempts. Cattoor has both volume and the ability to make them, as he actually averages 2.5 makes per game on five attempts this season.
His volume also tends to skyrocket against up-tempo teams, as he had six 3-point attempts in the first meeting vs. UNC, and has had outings where he has attempted as many as 11.
Cattoor did sink 3-of-6 attempts in the first meeting vs. the Tar Heels this season, and is in line to do so again, as North Carolina has the 278th worst 3-point percentage allowed in the nation.
This matchup is a complete contrast of styles, as the Cavaliers are one of the slowest teams in the nation and the Hurricanes are a guard-heavy squad that likes to break out and run.
That strategy means that the Hurricanes essentially abandon the glass, and their metrics show it. Miami (FL) is 322nd in offensive rebounding rate and 243rd in defensive rebounding rate.
Those are the types of numbers that will allow for plenty of boards to be pulled down by the Cavaliers’ leading rebounder Jayden Gardner. Gardner is an excellent rebounder for only standing at 6-foot-6.
He averages seven boards on the season, and has gone over this number in 13 of 26 games played this year.
His opportunities to get over this number should increase exponentially, as the Hurricanes will be putting up plenty of shots and won’t make an effort to crash the boards on either end.
The Buckeyes’ senior guard has become the team’s facilitator. Wheeler has shot the ball exceedingly well this season, though, as he’s hitting 50% from the field and over 38% from behind the arc.
However, his role in the offense significantly limits his shot opportunities.
Wheeler only averages about five field goal attempts per game, and half of them are usually from behind the arc. In a game where the market expects this to be lower scoring, his opportunities may only diminish even more so.
He has gone under this mark in 14 of 21 games this season. This is a case where his scoring prop is not adjusting to how the market is betting the game.
A number above his average would be reasonable for a game that is expected to be high scoring and go way over, but that is not the case here.
This line is a mistake, and we will jump on it.