College Basketball Player Props: 3 Picks for Jan. 15, Including Cal’s Jordan Shepherd
Photo by Matt Cohen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Shepherd (Cal)
Today’s slate of college hoops is glorious, as there are 130 games on tap. While that may seem overwhelming, fortunately, for the sake of this piece, the slate is reduced significantly. You see, prop bets have taken off in the last few years and have become a very popular and profitable market.
Though when it comes to college basketball props, books are just starting to get around to them. Currently, they are not hard to find per se — as props are available at a couple of major books — but only a handful offers them, so line shopping is not an option most of the time.
I have found — while grinding out player props recently — that books set these lines solely based on averages and don’t factor in the matchup that heavily. That is what we will capitalize on this season.
Today, I have three selections for you, and two of them are juicy. So let’s dive in and beat the books together.
If you know Syracuse basketball, you know the Boeheim name is synonymous with success. Well, coach Jim’s son has been a significant factor in the Orange’s success this season.
Buddy is a sniper from long range and can carry this Syracuse team if he gets hot from deep. In this matchup against the Florida State Seminoles, he will have plenty of opportunities to do so.
With Buddy, it’s not just the accuracy at which he shoots, but it’s the volume as well. He is shooting 34.2% from behind the arc this season, and while that may not be the most eye-popping number, there is another factor at play here.
This game is taking place at home, where Buddy loves to let it fly. He averages 7.5 3-point attempts at home, which is about two more attempts than he averages on the road.
Boehiem not only attempts more 3s at home, but he also makes more of them as well. He averages 2.7 makes per game, and his percentage ticks up to 36%.
His uptick in volume at home only raises the chance that he goes over this number, especially when looking at the matchup.
The Seminoles are a solid defensive team, but where they are weak is from behind the arc. They are 205th in 3-point percentage allowed and allow a whopping 43% of points from beyond the arc.
The Wake Forest big man will be a part of a slugfest in this matchup with the Virginia Cavaliers.
LaRavia is a staple down low for the Demon Deacons. He plays 75% of available minutes, but the slow pace in this one will allow him to be fresher for the duration of the game.
LaRavia also has a significant edge in this matchup, as the one thing this Virginia team does not do well is rebound. The Cavs are 233rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 244th in offensive rebounding percentage allowed.
Lastly, this line is flat-out wrong. LaRavia averages 6.1 rebounds per game, but has not had under six rebounds in a game since November 20th. He will have to deal with Jayden Gardner down low, but LaRavia is two inches taller than him.
The senior guard for the Bears is second on Cal in scoring, but is undoubtedly its most-used player on offense. He averages 14.2 points per game, though that number is surprising when you look at how he’s been shooting. Shepherd shoots 37.7% from the field overall and 28.6% from 3.
Now, this matchup against Washington State is on the road where those below-average shooting numbers only become amplified. In his three road appearances this season, Shepherd has shot 29.7% from the field and 18.2% from 3.
Not to mention the Cougars are a very stout defensive team. They are 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 36th in opponent effective field goal percentage.
Shepherd has gone under this number in seven of 17 games this season, but most of those games were against defenses far more inferior than that of the Cougars.