CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting West Virginia-TCU, 3 Other Tuesday Games
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bob Huggins
- Wiseguys are betting four College Basketball games on Tuesday night, headlined by West Virginia-TCU (7 p.m. ET on ESPNU).
- Sharps are also betting Miami Ohio-Toledo (7 p.m. ET on ESPN3), Ball State-Bowling Green (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and Marquette-Georgetown (8:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys went 2-1 with their Monday plays thanks to a pair of massive covers by Nebraska and Texas.
Tonight, sharps will continue to exploit the conference-dog edge, knowing that the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspect levels the playing field and leads to tighter games.
After examining today’s 24-game college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified four games that sharps are targeting on Tuesday night, with three starting at 7, and one tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
West Virginia @ TCU
7 p.m. ET | ESPNU
Sharp angle: West Virginia (moved from +8 to +6)
Almost heaven, West Virginia … Blue Ridge Mountains, Shenandoah River …
On paper, this looks an easy layup for the public. TCU (12-3) is at home against a struggling WVU (8-8) squad that has last four straight. Horned Frogs all day!
As always, follow the money.
The Mountaineers are getting only 34% of bets but 68% of dollars, indicating heavy smart money in their favor. We also noticed a big steam move on Bob Huggins’ boys, with wiseguys pounding WVU at +6.5. This combination of heavy respected money and steam forced oddsmakers to adjust the spread toward West Virginia.
Take me home, country roads!
Miami Ohio @ Toledo
7 p.m. ET | ESPN3
Sharp angle: Miami Ohio (moved from +9 to +8)
Casual bettors are taking one look at the win-loss records of these teams and their minds are made up. Miami Ohio is a pedestrian 8-8 while Toledo is an impressive 13-3 — and at home. Lay the points!
But once again, wiseguys are capitalizing on public bias and zigging while Average Joes zag.
This line opened at Toledo -9. Despite receiving 74% of spread bets, Toledo has fallen to -8, with some books even showing -7.5.
Pros hit Miami at +9 and then again at +8.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t seen a single conflicting play on Toledo.
The RedHawks also enjoy one of the biggest smart money discrepancies of the night. They’re getting only 26% of bets but 90% of dollars wagered, further evidence of professional money grabbing the points, not laying them.
Since 2005, road conference dogs receiving less than 40% of bets with at least one point of reverse line movement, and more money than bets by at least 20 percentage points, have gone 57% ATS, producing a 9.4% ROI.
Ball State @ Bowling Green
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Ball State (moved from +1 to -1.5)
Recreational bettors see two evenly matched teams — 10-6 Ball State vs. 11-5 Bowling Green — and say “give me the home team with the slightly bettor record.”
Not the sharps. They’re all in on Ball-So-Hard University.
This game opened at a virtual coin-flip, with Bowling Green listed at -1. However, despite receiving 58% of bets, Bowling Green has flipped from a 1-point favorite to a 1.5-point underdog.
Wiseguys were solely responsible for this big line move. Using Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, we tracked five separate steam and reverse line moves on Ball State, with four moves coming at +1 and the fifth at a pick’em. This overload of sharp action flipped Ball State from a dog to a fave.
Marquette @ Georgetown
8:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Georgetown (moved from +2.5 to +1.5)
This Big East showdown might be the biggest Pros vs. Joes matchup of the night.
Marquette (14-3) is ranked 15th overall and laying only a few points against unranked Georgetown (12-5), so naturally the public is all over the Golden Eagles.
But wiseguys are buying low on the home dog.
This game opened at Marquette -2.5. Despite 70% of bets laying the points, the Golden Eagles have fallen to -2, or even -1.5 at some books. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for public bettors to cover?
As always, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
Georgetown is receiving only 30% of bets but 63% of dollars. This gives the Hoyas excellent contrarian value in one of the most heavily bet games of the night, and also signals bigger, sharper wagers in their favor.