College Basketball Six Pack: Friday Best Bets From Three Man Weave & Our Experts
Justin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego State’s Matt Mitchell.
Friday night’s college basketball slate features just one ranked team, but the slate is jam-packed with mid-major action. Our experts have found five games with plenty of value and discuss their favorite bets of the night.
They broke down each of their favorite bets on The Action Network podcast.
Ky McKeon: Wright State (-11) vs. IUPUI
12 p.m. ET
Starting out in the Horizon League, I’m going with Wright State to take down the drags of the conference. While IUPUI hasn’t been quite a dumpster fire this year, I think that changes tonight against Wright State, which ranks No. 1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the Horizon during conference play.
Wright State has been lackadaisical in the first leg of these back-to-backs, as seen against Cleveland State and Youngstown, respectively. But rest assured, the best team of the conference will outclass the Jaguars in an up-tempo game that favors the heavy favorite.
Loudon Love and company will bludgeon IUPUI inside, as the Jaguars are one of the smallest teams in the country. Tack on the fact that Wright State is one of the best in the nation at denying the 3-ball, which IUPUI relies on to score, and the Raiders will take care of business on Friday.
The pick: Wright State -11
Jim Root: Purdue Fort Wayne vs. Green Bay
5 p.m. ET
This is a buy-low, sell-high spot for Green Bay, which has been much better playing on their home floor. Head coach Will Ryan’s offense empowers his guards in the pick-and-roll. Whether it’s Amari Davis, Josh Jefferson or PJ Pipes, all three can get to the rim and score. That’s where the Phoenix can take advantage, as the Mastodons rank in the bottom 40 in 2-point percent allowed on defense.
Purdue Fort Wayne leads the country in 3–point shooting, a number that is not sustainable. They have three players — Jarred Godfrey, Deonte Billups and Bobby Planutis — that are shooting at least 15% higher than their marks from last season. I don’t think that’s going to last and the regression monster bites the Mastodons on Friday, as Green Bay gets it done.
The pick: Green Bay +2
Stuckey: Purdue Fort Wayne vs. Green Bay
5 p.m. ET
I am siding with Jim again here. There is massive regression coming for this Fort Wayne team shooting way over their heads. Everyone on their team is shooting around 47% from 3, and it’s not like these are knockdown shooters. No one is there. Look at their track record, regression is coming hard. Great minds or dumb minds, I don’t know, but I’m with Jim.
The pick: Green Bay PK or better
Mike Randle: UIC @ Youngstown State
5 p.m. ET
Barring the COVID-19 outbreak, UIC has started to form into the kind of stout defense that head coach Luke Yaklich is famous for. The Flames have hit three unders in a row and play Youngstown State, the second-slowest team in the Horizon and the worst at shooting 3-pointers.
This line is projected at 140 on KenPom and opened at 142. I already hit it.
Youngstown State doesn’t turn the ball over and it doesn’t force many, either. I’m going to continue to ride with the Flames coming off back-to-back wins against a good Robert Morris team. I think this is a close battle with a slow pace.
The pick: Under 140.5
Matt Cox: UC San Diego vs. UC Davis
7 p.m. ET
It’s been a tough go for San Diego, one of the four new Division I programs this season. They have faced UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine, the two Goliaths of the Big West Conference, out of the gate. It hasn’t exactly been a warm welcome for the Tritons, who have only had a Division II tune up series against Saint Katherine before the gauntlet of conference play began.
But against UC Davis, they now finally catch a team in their weight class and one they can beat. UC Davis has had a long break because of COVID-19, and the Aggies have not played a Division I game since late November. The strict protocols have also left UC Davis with limited practice and preparation, an advantage for the Tritons as they look for their first win in the Big West. Look for anything above a pick here.
The pick: UC San Diego +2.5 (down to a PK)
Collin Wilson: San Diego State vs. Air Force
11 p.m. ET
Based on the paces of San Diego State and Air Force, this will be the slowest game of the day. The two teams rank 331st and 355th in adjusted tempo, and KenPom projects this game around 120 on the total and the market is at 129 right now.
San Diego State is top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency and faces an Air Force team that is not good as far as getting up the court. The Falcons are one of the slowest teams and should have zero put-backs. Even if they get a shot up, I can’t see them getting offensive rebounds. They rank almost dead last in the nation in forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding percentage.
I expect no quick points in what will be a slow-paced affair. Take the under.
The pick: Under 125