Friday College Basketball Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets (Dec. 9)

Friday College Basketball Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets (Dec. 9) article feature image

Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images. Pictured: Vanderbilt University Memorial Gymnasium

Like Thursday's college basketball slate, Friday's is rather thin, both in terms of volume and marquee matchups.

That will all change with Saturday's loaded schedule, but before we get there, there's still value on the board on Friday, despite only 12 games being played.

Matt Cox from Three Man Weave tells you the three matchups (and bets) you should be targeting on Friday in college hoops.

Dive in below.

Friday's Three Man Weave College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Matt is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

7 p.m. ET
Grambling +14.5
7 p.m. ET
Central Connecticut +1.5
7 p.m. ET
Over 154
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Grambling vs. Vanderbilt

Friday, Dec. 9
7 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Grambling +14.5

By Matt Cox

Keep riding the SWAC wave of momentum.

Grambling is the latest SWAC program to enjoy a Renaissance in college basketball’s free agency era. Head coach Donte’ Jackson is one of the longer-tenured head honchos in the conference and the latest to properly attack the newly-minted immediate eligibility rule.

However, the Tigers’ X-factor this season is Carte'Are Gordon, a former top-100 big man prospect out of St. Louis, who took the road less traveled by last year: sitting out.

Gordon’s reinstatement this season has shattered the ceiling for Grambling’s 2023 outlook. Surrounded by a veteran supporting cast, Gordon has been a wrecking ball in the paint all year long.

Tonight, he’ll face his stiffest test of the season in Vanderbilt’s 7-foot behemoth Liam Robbins.

Jerry Stackhouse recently realized Robbins is his team’s best outlet for offense, as the ‘Dores continue to soul search for their optimal identity. Robbins is a beast, but one Gordon can contain — or at least neutralize — which strips Vandy of it’s clear power-conference advantage.

There’s a reason Grambling is sitting at 5-3 on the year, including an impressive win over Colorado. This team is flushed with power conference-caliber athleticism, buoyed by the insertion of Gordon up front.

Situationally, this is Vandy’s third game since last Saturday. It’s less than 48 hours removed from a taxing, barnburner victory over Pittsburgh. Consequently, expect a drowsy ‘Dores squad to sleepwalk through this one, while the Tigers scrap and claw all the way to the final horn.

Pick: Grambling +14.5 (Play to +13)

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Dartmouth vs. Central Connecticut

Friday, Dec. 9
7 p.m. ET
NEC Front Row
Central Connecticut +1.5

By Matt Cox

The “due theory” anyone? The simple notion that a repeated string of failures must eventually lead to success.

Those who subscribe to this will like this angle for Central Connecticut, which currently boasts an 0-9 record.

The winless Blue Devils are not hopeless, however, evidenced by multiple furious comebacks this season — albeit, in losing efforts.

In fact, CCSU has out-rebounded its opponents on the offensive end in the last three games, including against Rutgers. The issue has been finishing those second- and third-chance opportunities.

The Blue Devils don’t profile as an elite scoring or shooting team, but they are far superior than the surface level results. In fact, ShotQuality confirms this anecdote, per their revised scores based upon shots taken and expected value of said shots.

Against Rutgers, ShotQuality scored the result as a 17-point expected loss, far more competitive than the final 83-49 score. Last weekend, CCSU’s six-point loss to Holy Cross was graded as a 67-66 win.

In short, CCSU isn’t a bottom-feeding team in disarray. The Blue Devils are bad, yes, but they are trending in the right direction.

Tonight marks their last legitimate chance at an outright win in the non-conference with a beatable Dartmouth opponent coming to New Britain. That opportunistic hope should fuel CCSU to a max effort, one that could be rewarded by the shooting regression gods.

Pick: Central Connecticut +1.5 (Play to PK)

Queens University (NC) vs. High Point

Friday, Dec. 9
7 p.m. ET
Over 154

By Matt Cox

Don’t be deterred about catching a bad number on this total. The sharps pounced all over the angles laid forth below, but you can still get the best of it at the current number. At such a high total, the value of a half-point or point is considerably less than a total, say, in the low 130s.

Queens and High Point are two teams that thrive in the open floor, and the fusion of their collective styles shapes up for a blistering track meet.

Queens, a first-year D-I program under the direction of Grant Leonard, employs a full-court pressing scheme, which aims to speed up opponents out of their comfort zone.

High Point thrives in chaos, as evidenced by its 27th-fastest offensive pace, per KenPom.

The market has not fully caught onto HPU’s identity shift under first-year head coach G.G. Smith, son of the legendary Tubby Smith. G.G. is modernizing HPU’s brand into a pace-and-space based attack, and he has a cadre of athletes to deploy it.

KenPom projects a pedestrian pace of 70 possessions tonight, which would mark High Point’s lowest tempo of the season — the Panthers clocked over 70 possessions in every game to date. There’s no reason to believe they’ll set a season-low against Queens’ pressing scheme.

Queens has played only two sub-70 possession games, and both were against teams that featured prominent post players, Bowling Green (Rashaun Agee) and George Mason (Josh Oduro).

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