Georgetown vs. Creighton Odds

Georgetown ended its four-game Big East losing streak with a 73-72 home win over Providence on Saturday. It was the Hoyas' second conference win, both coming at home in Washington, D.C.

They now travel to Omaha to play in one of the toughest venues in the Big East against a Creighton team (13-4) that has won three straight games after a brief two-game skid. The Bluejays are 9-3 in conference, sitting in sole possession of second place.

Creighton has dominated this series, winning six of the past seven games. However, the Bluejays failed to cover at home earlier this year in a five-point win over Xavier and a surprising outright loss to Marquette.

Can Georgetown reverse recent history, or will the explosive Bluejays roll at home?

The Matchup

Most teams try to slow Creighton down, but Georgetown will not. The Hoyas rank third in Big East play in tempo, actually playing a faster pace than Creighton.

Georgetown has embraced the 3-pointer and has scored 36.3% of their points from deep (51st-most in the nation). This is a huge increase from last season when it produced only 25.9% of its points from deep (287th).

The Hoyas are led by senior Jahvon Blair. The 6-foot-4 guard leads the team with 17.3 points per game and is balanced inside by 6-foot-11 center Qudus Wahab (11.8 points, 7.8 rebounds), who has four double-doubles on the season.

Georgetown has also gotten strong production from senior forward Jamorko Pickett (11.6 points, 8.5 rebounds). Over the past three games, Pickett is averaging 14 points and nine rebounds per game.

The biggest problem for Georgetown is that it brings the worst overall defensive in Big East play to Omaha for this one. The Hoyas are dead last in adjusted defensive efficiency, turnovers forced and steal percentage in the conference.

That is simply not the way to defend Creighton. The Bluejays have success against up-tempo teams that defend poorly. Creighton scored 98 and 97 points at home against Nebraska and St. John's, respectively, and scored 84 at home in a loss to a poor defensive team in Marquette.

The Bluejays are shooting a robust 36.9% overall from beyond the arc (52nd-best), and an even better 37.3% in Big East play.

They are led by senior Denzel Mahoney (15.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 36% 3-point), junior Marcus Zegarowski (14.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 41.5% 3-point), senior Damien Jefferson (12.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 38% 3P) and junior Christian Bishop (11 points, 5.1 rebounds).

Defending Creighton is more complicated than just defending the 3-boll. The Bluejays rank first in Big East play in 2-point percentage as well at 55.4%. The Hoyas' interior strength should limit that output, but will Creighton's shooters pull the Georgetown bigs away from the basket?

The Hoyas hold an advantage at the free-throw line, shooting 78.6% in conference play, the best mark in the Big East.

Creighton is second-worst  at 64.7%. However, neither team fouls enough to make this an issue. In fact, Georgetown ranks 57th in fewest fouls per game, adding even more support to a high-scoring game in Omaha.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Since joining the Big East, Creighton has been a strong home betting favorite. The Bluejays are covering at a 56% rate in over 60 conference games over the past eight years.

The teams that have found success in Omaha have not tried to run with the Bluejays. The style of play that a Marquette, Xavier or Connecticut plays is much different than Georgetown.

I expect a high-scoring game by both teams that will end with a comfortable Creighton win. Georgetown's low defensive turnover rate will allow Creighton to get comfortable on offense.

That's a bad recipe for a visiting team, even getting almost 14 points.

Pick: Creighton -13.5 (up to 14.5) | Over 148.5 (up to 150.5)