Kansas State vs Texas Pick & Prediction for Wednesday

Kansas State vs Texas Pick & Prediction for Wednesday article feature image
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John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas guard Max Abmas.

Kansas State vs Texas Pick, Prediction

Wednesday, March 13
7 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Kansas State Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
+4
-110
143.5
-105o / -115u
+170
Texas Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-4
-110
143.5
-105o / -115u
-210
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

The Big 12 tournament took a turn of events when Kansas head coach Bill Self announced that star guard Kevin McCullar and big man Hunter Dickinson are out until the NCAA tournament begins next week.

The news gives other teams the opportunity to go further than expected in Kansas City.

Texas is playing some of its best basketball of the season despite the epic collapse at Baylor last Monday evening. The Longhorns comfortably defeated Oklahoma on Saturday and are now getting ready to face Jerome Tang's Kansas State squad.

The Wildcats have had a bizarre season, especially playing away from home. They ended their regular season with an impressive home win over Iowa State.


Kansas State Wildcats

Tang's Wildcats were tenacious on the defensive side of the ball all season. The Cats enter the matchup 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

They've defended inside and outside the arc exceptionally well and sit 19th in opponent field-goal percentage.

However, their issues on the defensive side of the ball include their lack of rebounding and ability to force turnovers.

Along with those struggles on defense, the K-State offense also concerns me. The Wildcats rank 220th in adjusted offensive efficiency and don't have a chance if they struggle offensively.

They're one of the worst teams in the country in protecting basketball, sitting 349th in turnover rate. That's a recipe for disaster against a Texas team that forces turnovers in abundance.

The Cats have struggled with their 3-point shooting all season, and it's unlikely they'll improve drastically now. In order to defeat the Longhorns, they'll have to make a lot of triples and improve their ball protection.

Even though the tournament is held in Kansas City, that's easier said than done.


Texas Longhorns

Head coach Rodney Terry's Longhorns have become one of the most intriguing stories in the Big 12. Despite having immense talent, the Horns let a few games slip away, costing them at least three more victories.

Many have questioned their composure and camaraderie, wondering if they have what it takes to make a sneaky deep run in the conference tournament.

Nonetheless, Texas has a great matchup against Kansas State.

Playing at a neutral site, the Horns have a much stronger offensive game. They rank among the top 55 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency.

The backcourt duo of Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter is among the best in the country and can lead Texas to victory on any given night.

Despite Kansas State's stingy defense, Texas should still find a way to crack the code offensively.

On the other end of the floor, the Cats struggle from deep, and the Longhorns are due for positive regression in their perimeter defense. Their strength lies in defending the inside of the arc, where K-State scores most of its most points.

It's highly unlikely that the Wildcats will be able to score consistently throughout the game, making it a great matchup for the Longhorns.


Kansas State vs Texas

Betting Pick & Prediction

Despite Texas' recent meltdowns, I believe it's a slam-dunk pick with a great matchup.

Plus, Kansas State finds itself in a potential letdown spot after a big home victory over a top-10 Iowa State team.

I particularly like the Horns on the defensive end of the floor, and I think they'll be able to contain the Wildcats offense throughout the game.

I even put a future on them to win the Big 12 Tournament at 30-1 because I believe they have the talent to make it to the championship even if they're not as good a team as Houston. The current odds make that a hedgeable game, though, which will be big if Terry's team can put it all together.

Pick: Texas -4.5

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