Friday’s Power Rating Values: UNC vs. Iona Spread Is Off by 3 Points

Friday’s Power Rating Values: UNC vs. Iona Spread Is Off by 3 Points article feature image
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Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cam Johnson

  • Not sure if you should pull the trigger on that three-team moneyline parlay in Friday's NCAA Tournament? We can help.
  • Below, you can download a sheet and plug in your sportsbook's spreads, moneyline and parlay values to see how they align with our game projections.
  • Easily view the projected edge for each game and take advantage of each slate's best betting spots.

With our awesome app and tools, we try to make sports betting as non-overwhelming as possible. But it still has its moments for all of us: You like that spread at +7 with -110 juice, but is it still viable at +8 and -120 juice?

In the ramp up to this year's NCAA Tournament, we've released a ton of data, including proprietary power ratings that have allowed us to give "true" odds on every team to win each game and thus the "true" spread on it.

So we thought it might help if we gave out a handy sheet (download it below) that has our win probabilities built in, and at your own leisure, you can insert the spreads, moneylines and parlay values at your own sportsbooks and see how they stack up to our projections. It's another way to make betting less of a math headache.

Below you'll find a sheet with three tabs, one for spreads, one for moneylines and another with a parlay calculator. Again, just insert your book's numbers and we'll spit out the projected edge. Yes, it's literally that simple.

But first, let me highlight a couple Friday spots in which there's likely an edge for everyone. I'll be doing this for each day's slate of games throughout the Big Dance.


Biggest Betting Edges for Friday's NCAA Tournament

The three biggest edges in spread betting currently are as follows:

  • Virginia -21.5 (projected spread of -24.5, 8.4% edge)
  • UNC -22 (projected spread of -25, 8.4% edge)
  • Iowa +4.5 (projected spread of +1.5, 8.4% edge)

There are even bigger edges (see the sheet for those) in betting the moneylines, including an underdog in Washington that has better odds of winning than its +140 line suggests.

And if you really like betting parlays, there are some potential edges there today as well.

For example, we have the "true" odds of underdogs Iowa and Washington both winning at 23%, which could be a deal depending on your book's parlay odds.

There are many more edges, so download the sheet below. Talk to you guys Saturday.


NCAA Tournament Friday Betting Slate: Best Spread, Moneyline and Parlay Values

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.

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