The Memphis Tigers take on the USF Bulls in Tampa, Fla. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
USF is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here’s my Memphis vs. USF prediction and college basketball picks for February 19, 2026.
Memphis vs USF Prediction
My Pick: Memphis +8.5
My Memphis vs USF best bet is on the Tigers against the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Memphis vs. USF Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Memphis vs USF spread: USF -8.5
- Memphis vs USF over/under: 158.5 points
- Memphis vs USF moneyline: Memphis +350, USF -450
Memphis vs USF College Basketball Betting Preview
Memphis Basketball
Penny Hardaway has won 20+ games in every season since taking the Memphis job back in 2018. That streak is in jeopardy this season, with the Tigers sitting at 12-13 overall and 7-5 in the league in late February.
Once again, Memphis was at the bottom of the country in minutes continuity entering the season — this time all the way down at 0%. This roster Hardaway put together has high-major talent, per usual, but not at the same caliber we’ve been used to, and things just haven’t really clicked.
Making matters worse, there has been some off-court drama. Hasan Abdul Hakim was just kicked off the team, but Zach Davis will return for this one following his suspension.
This group is rock solid defensively, coming in at 43rd nationally in KenPom. The Tigers play opportunistic defense, ranking 35th in the country in block rate and 14th in steal rate.
Offense has been the struggle. Dug McDaniel started the season well, but he hasn’t been great in conference play. Sincere Parker has become the go-to scorer for this team and has scored 20+ in four of his last six games — including a 40-point explosion in a road win over UAB.
USF Basketball
Bryan Hodgson’s pace-and-space USF team is one of the most fun groups to watch in the country. Hodgson, a Nate Oats disciple in year one at the helm, has the Bulls in sole possession of first place in the AAC.
South Florida is 18-8 on the season and 10-3 in conference play. Those three losses in the American are by a combined five points, and two of them came in overtime.
The Bulls are 10th in the country in points per game at 88.8, playing at the 18th-fastest tempo. They're 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and tops in the American in foul rate and assist rate.
Big man Izaiyah Nelson is tied for third in the country with 16 double-doubles. He’s a monster to deal with on the interior. USF also has two elite volume 3-point shooters in Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion, with 85 and 84 makes from deep on the season, respectively.
While this team thrives on the offensive end, it's solid defensively too. The Bulls specifically thrive at guarding the interior, where they lead the league in 2-point percentage defense.
However, in overall defensive efficiency in league play, they're middle of the pack, ranking seventh in the AAC.
Memphis vs. USF Betting Analysis
We have a matchup between two teams and coaches on opposite trajectories. Hodgson and USF are firing on all cylinders and are clearly the best team in the league. Hardaway and Memphis, on the other hand, are reeling and are having their worst season in years.
Although I’m super high on this USF team, I like this spot for Memphis. The Tigers are in the midst of a really tough part of their schedule, playing their third road game in a row after losing at North Texas and getting blown out in a random non-conference matchup at Utah State.
This group is still just a half-game back of second place in the league and is, of course, still alive to make the Big Dance should it win the conference tournament. After kicking a guy off the team and in as desperate a spot as it gets, I expect this battle-tested Memphis squad to put forth its best effort here.
This is also the best defensive team USF has seen in a while, and things may not come as easily as we’ve seen lately.
I’ll take the points here with the underdog.
My Pick: Memphis +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
