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Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Prediction: How to Bet In-State Rivalry

Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Prediction: How to Bet In-State Rivalry article feature image
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Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A.J. Hoggard (Michigan State)

Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds

Saturday, Jan. 7
2:30 p.m. ET
FOX
Michigan Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4.5
-120
138.5
-110o / -110u
+146
Michigan State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4.5
-102
138.5
-110o / -110u
-178
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

You know conference play has truly returned when Michigan and Michigan State meet on a Saturday afternoon.

This will be the 183rd meeting between the two schools dating back to 1909. The Wolverines hold the all-time advantage in the series, 96-87, although Sparty has won six of the last nine contests.

Michigan comes into East Lansing off back-to-back Big Ten wins against Maryland and Penn State.

These were two important victories for a Michigan team that was on a two-game losing streak going into conference play, which included being upset by Central Michigan.

On the other side, Michigan State will bring a five-game winning streak into this matchup. The Spartans’ most recent win came in their Big Ten season opener against Nebraska, 74-56.

The Spartans were led by Tyson Walker, who tops the team with 13.9 points per game this season.

Michigan State has also welcomed senior forward Malik Hall back into the lineup after an eight-game absence due to a foot injury.

This will be a matchup of two teams that are rolling coming into one of the most historical rivalries in all of college basketball.


Michigan Wolverines

Michigan had an up and down non-conference, with its only substantial win coming on November 16 against Pittsburgh.

Things got even worse, as the Wolverines were upset on their home floor by Central Michigan just before conference play began.

Fortunately for the Wolverines, they have turned the tide in their last two outings. Michigan notched double-digits wins at home against Maryland and Penn State, two teams both inside the top 50.

Michigan has returned to its winning ways on the back of Hunter Dickinson, who led the team in both contests with 32- and 17-point performances.

On Saturday, Dickinson will be matched up with Michigan State’s Mady Sissoko, who has been able to hold his own so far this season.

Most notably, Sissoko was able to turn in double-digit scoring performances against Drew Timme and Oscar Tshiebwe, two of the premier big men in college basketball.

Take a few more looks at that Mady Sissoko @MSU_Basketball block. 👀 pic.twitter.com/Gp9KoCannK

— Michigan State on BTN (@MichiganStOnBTN) December 10, 2022

What will also be a concern for the Wolverines, is if they are able to create enough ball pressure to disrupt Michigan State’s elite backcourt.

So far this season, the Wolverines have managed to create turnovers on just 16.7% of their opponents’ possessions (296th nationally). This comes as a result of generating steals on just 7.7% of their defensive possessions.

If Michigan does not disrupt the flow of an ultra-talented Michigan State backcourt, it could be a long afternoon for the Wolverines.

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Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is starting to get healthy at just the right time — Hall returned to the lineup on December 30 against Buffalo and played again against Nebraska.

Although Hall played limited minutes in both games, he was still efficient, scoring 11 points against Buffalo and adding five points, four rebounds and two assists in just 19 minutes against Nebraska.

Welcome back, Malik Hall. 🤩@iammalikhall x @MSU_Basketball pic.twitter.com/BJSLCsbN5U

— Michigan State on BTN (@MichiganStOnBTN) December 30, 2022

Hall will give the Spartans a much-needed boost off the bench, as they rank 202nd nationally in bench minutes at just 30.2%. Hall’s efficiency around the rim will also boost a Spartans offense that ranks 243rd in 2-point percentage.

What will be most important for the Spartans on Saturday will be their ability to take advantage of their superior backcourt of A.J. Hoggard and Walker. The junior duo is averaging 25.8 points and 9.7 assists per game to lead the Spartans’ offense.

As a result of these two playmakers, 63.9% of the Spartans’ total baskets come on assists, the 12th-highest rate in the country.

Michigan State will look to continue this level of shot creation against a Michigan backcourt that has struggled to find consistency.

Through 14 games, Michigan’s Dug McDaniel and Kobe Bufkin are averaging just 5.8 assists per game. This has created an offense that is heavily reliant on the play of Dickinson to get the offense going.

For Michigan to steal a win on the road, it will have to have an offense that is not reliant on Dickinson to do it all.


Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Pick

Overall, I see this as a great matchup for Tom Izzo and the Spartans on their home floor.

Izzo will have had four full days to prepare an offensive scheme to limit the effectiveness of Dickinson.

In addition, the Spartans will be able to control the tempo offensively through their superior guard play and average tempo that ranks 300th nationally.

Look for a Spartans team that is finally at full strength to make a statement in East Lansing on Saturday.

Pick: Michigan State -4.5 or Better

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