March Madness Odds, Pick for Utah State vs Purdue

Can any team stop Purdue?

Can anyone stop Zach Edey?

I think Great Osobor and the Utah State Aggies have a shot.

Utah State’s interior defensive metrics are a mess.

The Aggies rank 330th nationally in post-up PPP allowed (.98) and 270th in paint points per game allowed (34).

So, how do you expect them to stop Edey?

Well, the Aggies have Osobor, who grades out decently as a post-defender (.78 PPP allowed, 65th percentile).

They’re also an excellent defensive rebounding team that can prevent Edey from playing volleyball with the glass. And they’re excellent at closing out on shooters, ranking in the top 100 nationally in Open 3 Rate Allowed while guarding 60% of opposing catch-and-shoot opportunities.

So, if Osobor can contain Edey one-on-one (a tough ask), that’ll allow the Utah State defenders to close out on every Purdue shooter.

That’s a solid defensive game plan.

Conversely, I wonder if Purdue can defend Utah State.

Danny Sprinkle has built a dominant cut-and-post offense behind Osobor. The Aggies score around 18 points per game on the two sets, primarily by feeding Osobor on drop-cuts.

Purdue is an excellent post-up defense behind Edey, but the Boilers are vulnerable against cutters, ranking 280th nationally in cutting PPP allowed (1.24).

The wild matchup is Osobor against Edey on both ends. Both can be exploited when forced to defend out of position, and both can dominate the post while drawing fouls.

I think Osobor is slightly more versatile. He’s an incredible all-around scorer, defender and playmaker.

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If Osobor can defend with Edey one-on-one, he can score on him on the other end.

If that happens, the Aggies can close out on Purdue’s shooters while generating rim-running, cutting offense via short-roll opportunities.

Betting on Osobor outplaying Edey is a questionable wager, but he’s been near-perfect since March started, averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and four “stocks” per game over his past five games.

When Osobor is playing at his best, he’s among the most impactful players in the sport. And I expect his best effort on Sunday against Edey and Purdue, which should lead to a single-digit game.

At a minimum, the ShotQualityBets model projects the Aggies as only a seven-point ‘dog in this second-round neutral-court game.

I’m willing to bet that Osobor and the Aggies will give the Boilers a scare in the second round — or at least keep it within single digits.

Pick: Utah State +11.5 (Play to +10)