SEMO vs Tennessee Tech Odds, Prediction: How to Bet OVC Championship
Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tennessee Tech’s Jaylen Sebree.
SEMO vs Tennessee Tech Odds
-110o / -110u
|Tennessee Tech Odds|
-110o / -110u
We made it. It’s finally time to start punching tickets to the NCAA Tournament, and we begin with an OVC Championship matchup between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks and Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles.
For the Redhawks, this will be their fourth game in four days. They started their tournament with a 19-point win over a struggling Longwood team before winning back-to-back games over Tennessee State and top-seed Morehead State.
On the other side, this will be just the second game for Tennessee Tech in this OVC Tournament. The Golden Eagles earned the No. 2 seed through an 11-7 finish in conference play.
In their quarterfinal matchup, the Golden Eagles handed it to UT Martin thanks to a 28-point performance from senior Jaylen Sebree.
This championship game will be a highly-anticipated rematch after double-overtime was needed to decide the first matchup between these two. In the end, SEMO won the second overtime period, 14-7, to take down the Golden Eagles on their home floor.
In order to pick which team will punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament in this OVC Tournament title game, let’s take look at the odds and make a prediction for Southeast Missouri State vs. Tennessee Tech.
Although Southeast Missouri State earned the 5-seed in this OVC Tournament, it was because it lost tiebreakers with UT Martin and Tennessee State, as all three finished at 10-8 in conference play.
The Redhawks have certainly proven their place among the OVC’s best, taking down the No. 4 and No. 1 seeds on their way to the championship.
Offensively, SEMO thrives on its ability to get out in space and get to the free-throw line. The Redhawks rank sixth nationally in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 72.6 possessions per game.
This desire to play at a high tempo will be important against a Tennessee Tech team that has been one of the few in the OVC to slow things down on the offensive end. The Golden Eagles rank 203rd nationally in Adjusted Tempo at 67.1 possessions per game.
Another contrast in tendencies on the offensive end will come at the free-throw line.
SEMO scores 21.2% of its points from the charity stripe, the 39th-highest rate in college basketball. These points will be hard-earned against a Tennessee Tech defense that allows opponents to attempt just 24.8% of their total shots from the free-throw line, the 26th-lowest rate in the country.
John Pelphrey’s Golden Eagles have made their first OVC Tournament final in 11 years.
Tech put itself in this position with its lethal outside shooting and its ability to take care of the basketball. It ranks third in the OVC in turnover percentage at just 16.7%.
This will be an important factor against a SEMO team that wants to turn its defense into instant offense. The Redhawks have the highest defensive turnover rate in the OVC at 19.4%, which helps SEMO rank 72nd nationally in potential quick points off breakaway steals, according to Haslametrics.
Not only will Tech’s ability to take care of the basketball limit the Redhawks offensively, but it will also open things up for its perimeter offense.
Tennessee Tech takes the most 3-point attempts in the OVC with 45.3% of its attempts coming from beyond the arc. This offensive system has been successful, as the Golden Eagles are averaging the third-highest 3-point percentage in the conference at 38%.
This high-level perimeter offense is likely to continue against a SEMO defense that allows opponents to shoot 40.3% from deep in conference play.
In addition to this outside shooting, Tennessee Tech will be able to boost its offense at the charity stripe. The Golden Eagles are scoring just 18.3% of their points from the charity stripe, on par with the national average.
However, SEMO’s defense has struggled at defending without fouling, giving up 22.2% of its total opponent points at the free-throw line, the second-highest rate in the OVC.
SEMO vs Tennessee Tech Betting Pick
Although SEMO has put together a fantastic run, winning its fourth game in four days will be a tough task considering the high-octane style the Redhawks play on both ends.
Because of this, I expect Tennessee Tech to dictate the pace, throwing the Redhawks off their offensive game. This will be most notable at the charity stripe, where SEMO has turned for nearly a quarter of its total points.
Given these advantages for Tennessee Tech on both ends of the floor, I will gladly back a more rested Golden Eagles squad catching two points.
Pick: Tennessee Tech +2.5 (Play to +2)
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