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St. Bonaventure vs. Richmond Odds & Pick: Back the Bonnies in Saturday’s A-10 Showdown

St. Bonaventure vs. Richmond Odds & Pick: Back the Bonnies in Saturday’s A-10 Showdown article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Lofton.

  • St. Bonaventure looks for its first Atlantic 10 conference win of the season against Richmond on Saturday evening.
  • The Spiders have five players that average double-digit points, led by senior guard Blake Francis.
  • Check out Pat McMahon's full betting guide below, with update odds, plus his pick for St. Bonaventure vs. Richmond.

St. Bonaventure vs. Richmond Odds

St. Bonaventure Odds +4.5 (-115) [BET NOW]
Richmond Odds -4.5 (-105) [BET NOW]
Moneyline +162 / -194 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 146.5 (-114 / -106) [BET NOW]
Time 5 p.m. ET
TV CBS Sports Network
Odds updated Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Get up to a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel today.

St. Bonaventure and Richmond collide on Saturday evening for a key early-season Atlantic 10 matchup. Both clubs have the majority of their production returning from last season and figure to finish near the top of the conference standings.

The Bonnies have had a rough time when it comes to scheduling. They’ve had six games canceled for COVID-19 reasons and only managed to play two non-conference games. St. Bonaventure is coming off a close loss to Rhode Island on Wednesday in its A-10 opener.

Both teams were sloppy after long layoffs between games, and the Bonnies struggled from the field and committed a season-high 20 turnovers.

Richmond has a significantly larger body of work than St. Bonaventure and comes into the game with a 7-2 record. It suffered a surprising home defeat to Hofstra on Dec. 22 (after the Bonnies beat Hofstra) but rebounded with an impressive win at Davidson in their A-10 opener on Wednesday.

The Matchup

St. Bonaventure Key Personnel 

The Bonnies’ roster is loaded with juniors who all have plenty of game experience. Their big three of Kyle Lofton, Dom Welch, and Osun Osunniyi have all been full-time starters since they arrived on campus as freshman in the 2018-19 season. Fellow junior starters Jaren Holmes (JUCO) and Jalen Adaway (Miami Ohio) both transferred in last season. Holmes started right away and was a key contributor all season, while Adaway sat out per transfer rules but practiced really well and earned his way into the lineup this season.

About a minute into the Rhode Island game, Holmes headed to the bench and never returned. It was later revealed that he was having back spasms and is considered day-to-day, so his status for this game is uncertain. In other big roster news,  sophomore forward Justin Winston left the team before the URI game and is in the transfer portal. Winston was the starting power forward last season but lost his job to Adaway and only averaged 9 minutes per contest through the first two games. The loss of Winston really hurts the Bonnies’ depth, as they were already pretty thin in the frontcourt.

When Holmes went out early, guards Anthony Roberts (Kent State transfer), Alejandro Vazquez, and Eddie Creal played bigger roles and could all see significant minutes versus the Spiders.

When the Bonnies have the ball

The Bonnies have been solid offensively thus far, ranking 73rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’ve done a good of sharing the basketball (16 assists per game) and scoring in the paint, but they’ve struggled to shoot from the outside. The Bonnies are making only 28.9% of their 3-point attempts as a team.

The offense runs through Lofton, an iron-man who led the nation in minutes last season and plays incredibly efficient basketball. The reigning first-team All-Atlantic 10 point guard averages 15.3 points and five assists per game, but he’s really struggling to find his rhythm from 3 (11% this season).

Osunniyi (15.7) and Welch (13) also average double figures and are off to strong starts offensively. Osunniyi has made significant strides in his post game and is playing with more aggressiveness on offense, a great sign for the Bonnies long term.

Richmond has a capable defense and ranks 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Jacob Gilyard is the reigning A-10 defender of the year and makes life difficult for opposing point guards. He has an outside shot to break the NCAA career steals record and is averaging a ridiculous 3.9 per game this season.

One of the Spiders’ main strengths has been defending the 3, where they’re limiting opponents to 31.5% on the year. A big area of concern for Richmond is on the glass, as it’s getting out-rebounded by five boards per game.

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Richmond Key Personnel

Like St. Bonaventure, Richmond was set to return almost every key contributor from last season. It caught a tough break in the preseason, however, when starting guard Nick Sherod suffered a season-ending knee injury. Sophomore Tyler Burton replaced Sherod in the starting lineup and has made a huge leap in his second year with the Spiders.

Richmond has a big three it leans on as well, consisting of Gilyard, Blake Francis, and Grant Golden. The three seniors have been cornerstones of this Spiders program for the past several years and are off to strong starts again this season.

Athletic senior forward Nathan Cayo rounds out the starting five and has developed into a terrific two-way player. The Spiders have a very thin bench and rely on their starting five as much as anyone in the country, so you will see all of the starters logging major minutes on Saturday.

When Richmond has the ball

The veteran Spiders are playing very well offensively and rank 33rd in offensive efficiency. All five starters average double figures with Francis leading the way at 16 points per game.

They’re shooting it really well from the field (50.4%), largely thanks to the efficiency of their big men inside. Golden is putting up 15 points per game on an incredible 61.5% from the field, and he’s also made 7 of his 11 attempts from distance.

Cayo is making the most of his shooting opportunities as well, converting 69.8% of his field-goal attempts.

The Spiders were on fire from three in the Davidson win, making 8 of their 16 attempts as a team. On the season they’ve been fairly average from 3-point range, converting on 34.8% of their attempts.

Guarding the 3-point line is what St. Bonaventure does best defensively. It’s stifling opponents from the outside, ranking 13th nationally in 3-point field goal defense.

Osunniyi is one of the best interior defenders in the conference and averages 2.3 blocks per game. He will be a valuable asset for the Bonnies against the talented Spiders’ frontcourt, and he should be able to alter plenty of Richmond shot attempts at the rim.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

It was pretty clear in the Rhode Island game that St. Bonaventure had plenty of rust after an 11-day break when playing in just their third game of the season.

It’s been off to a very slow start from 3, as Lofton, Welch, and Holmes are all shooting it worse than their averages from last season. Some positive variance will head the Bonnies’ way soon, and if it comes against the Spiders, they’ll have a great chance to win outright.

The Bonnies matchup pretty well defensively here, starting with Osunniyi down low. He can make life difficult for Golden and force the Spiders’ guards to beat them on the perimeter.

This plays into another one of its strengths, as St. Bonaventure is limiting opponents to 24.4% from 3-point range. The Bonnies beat the Spiders by four points in their lone meeting last season in a game in which both teams struggled from 3, and I won’t be surprised to see a similar result in this contest.

I think it’s a good bet that Holmes will suit up on Saturday, but his status is something to monitor before tip-off. I only recommend backing the Bonnies if he’s confirmed to play.

Pick: St. Bonaventure +5.5 (down to +5).

[Bet St. Bonaventure at FanDuel completely risk-free up to $1,000]

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