College Basketball Odds & Prediction for TCU vs Houston

The top-seeded Houston Cougars host the eight-seeded TCU Horned Frogs in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals as 8.5-point favorites.

Surprisingly, the Horned Frogs won the only regular-season meeting, putting together a one-point home-court victory behind lights-out perimeter shooting.

I would be stunned if they pulled off a repeat performance.

The Horned Frogs are a simple team.

They run the floor and crash the boards harder than any other team in the nation, leading the Big 12 in fast-break points per game (19) while ranking third in second-chance points per game (13).

The Frogs attack defensively, leveraging some ball-screen blitz elements – a la Kelvin Sampson – to force turnovers and fuel their fast-break points. They rank third in the Big 12 in defensive turnover rate.

But that leaves them very vulnerable on the interior, where the Frogs rank among the worst conference teams in terms of 2-point shooting allowed, defensive rebounding rate, cutting PPP allowed and post-up PPP allowed.

If you can beat Jameer Nelson Jr., Avery Anderson III and Emanuel Miller off the bounce, you’ll likely get to the rim and score.

Houston is the nation’s best ball-screen blitz defense.

I wrote about the Cougars’ dominant, aggressive defensive style here, so you can dive down that rabbit hole in your free time.

But, similarly to TCU, the Coogs send two-to-the-ball on every pick-and-roll screen while rotating and scrambling on the weak side, forcing on-ball turnovers while picking off cross-court passes.

Houston does everything better, but the most significant difference between the Cougars and Horned Frogs is the former’s paint and rim denial.

Houston is so good at swarming the paint. The Cougars rank second in the Big 12 in block rate and first in paint points per game allowed, with only 21.

Ja’Vier Francis is simply too quick when scrambling and recovering on rotations, averaging 2.4 stocks per game.

When you have guards like Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer pressing you at the point of attack while Francis anchors the paint, how do you plan on scoring?

TCU generated almost no offense in the first head-to-head meeting.

The Frogs managed only nine points on 10 transition possessions and nine second-chance points on 14 offensive rebounds, finishing the game shooting 39% from 2.

That’s typical against Houston, which leads the Big 12 in fast-break and second-chance points per game allowed.

TCU won only because it shot over its head, canning eight of 15 3-point attempts (53%) while generating 24 points on 15 catch-and-shoot opportunities (1.6 PPP).

The ball-screen blitz defense is vulnerable against crisp perimeter passing and deadly weak-side shooting, but the Horned Frogs aren't typically that. Instead, they had an atypical night and won a big game because of it.

I expect significant negative regression in the rematch.

In that last matchup, Shead was able to dribble penetrate TCU’s perimeter defense, finishing with 11 points on 4-for-6 2-point shooting while dishing out five assists – including a few to Roberts, who finished with 20 points on 10-for-18 2-point shooting.

Houston shot 50% from the interior, but it had an atypical night from the perimeter, canning four of 18 attempts (22%). If a few more 3s fell, the Coogs likely roll the Frogs, especially given Shead and Roberts' ability to exploit the rim.

I expect significant positive regression in the rematch.

I would be worried about the JoJo Tugler injury, but he was almost invisible in the first meeting, posting four points and two rebounds in 11 minutes.

So, I fully believe that the Coogs can win this game by double-digits with or without him. All the tools are there.

Pick: Houston -9.5 (Play to -10)