The Tennessee Volunteers play the Iowa State Cyclones in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in Chicago, Illinois, on Friday, March 27. Tip-off is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on TBS.
Iowa State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. Meanwhile, Tennessee is the underdog at +3.5 with a moneyline of +154. The over/under sits at 140.5 total points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Iowa State prediction and college basketball picks for Friday, March 27.
Tennessee vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Tennessee +4
My Tennessee vs Iowa State best bet is on the Volunteers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs Iowa State Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 140.5 -105o / -115u | +154 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 140.5 -105o / -115u | -185 |
- Tennessee vs Iowa State Spread: Tennessee +3.5, Iowa State -3.5
- Tennessee vs Iowa State Over/Under: 140.5 Points
- Tennessee vs Iowa State Moneyline: Tennessee +154, Iowa State -185
Tennessee vs Iowa State NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
Tennessee Basketball
Tennessee is making its fourth straight Sweet 16 appearance under head coach Rick Barnes, and this year's team has taken on the physical, defensive-minded style we've become accustomed to seeing with the Volunteers.
Tennessee dismantled Miami (OH) in the second half of its opening round game and made Virginia's shot-blockers obsolete its last time out.
The defense has played great in the paint, and the Vols have grinded out the second half while playing their last four games at 66 possessions or fewer.
This team has the experience and has routinely been in this position in the NCAA Tournament, so I don't expect the lights to be too bright for Tennessee here.
The offense wants to operate out of the post and get to the rim or foul line.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie leads all scorers with 18.4 points per game, while Nate Ament averages 17 points and 6.5 rebounds. J.P. Estrella scores 10.2, and three others average at least six points per game.
Gillespie is closing in on 200 assists this season, and his playmaking prowess and ability to find open teammates make him an obvious option as the primary ball-handler.
Tennessee crashes the boards well and is the best offensive rebounding team in the country. This will provide a decided advantage in second-chance opportunities and overall shot volume, two key metrics as we get this late into the season.
The defense has been outstanding all season and ranks in the top 15 nationally in overall defensive efficiency. The Vols rebound well, defend the 3-point arc, and can block and alter shots in the post.
Barnes has a team with few defensive weaknesses. Ultimately, this group should match up well with Iowa State.
Iowa State Basketball
The Cyclones have been outstanding on both ends of the floor all season for head coach T.J. Otzelberger, who might be fielding his best team in Ames.
Iowa State was very competitive in the Big 12 and had an outstanding home-court advantage that allowed the Cyclones to drop only one home game all season.
Tournament settings haven’t been too bad either, as the Clones are 8-1 on a neutral court.
This team has breezed through its first two NCAA Tournament opponents with relative ease, but the injury to Joshua Jefferson has everybody holding their breath.
Jefferson is the second-leading scorer for Iowa State, averaging 16.4 points per game, right behind Milan Momcilovic's 17.2. Tamin Lipsey averages 13.3 points per game and leads the Cyclones with 168 assists.
Jefferson is also an exquisite passer out of the post and leads the team in rebounding, so his health will be something to monitor leading up to tip-off.
While Iowa State is an excellent 3-point shooting team, it prefers a balanced approach and plays its best when it finds touches in the paint.
The defense has been among the most efficient in the entire country this season. The Cyclones force turnovers at an extremely high rate, keep their opponents off the charity stripe and contest every shot.
Iowa State will provide challenges and change up its defensive looks regularly, so Tennessee will have to take care of the ball.
Tennessee vs Iowa State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 4-point favorite with the total set at 140.5. I'm going to take the points with Tennessee.
Jefferson is such a key component to what Iowa State wants to do offensively. He has racked up 167 assists and 66 offensive rebounds, and he's far and away the team's leader in made and attempted free throws.
It's going to be very tough for Iowa State offensively without multiple players stepping up if Jefferson can't go here.
Tennessee will have a big rebounding advantage on both ends of the floor and should have numerous second-chance opportunities after grabbing offensive boards.
I like how Estrella and Jaylen Carey have stepped up during this NCAA Tournament run, and Gillespie also has the playmaking ability to keep Tennessee in the game.
Iowa State struggled at times this year with strong, defensive-minded teams that slowed the pace and forced half-court possessions.
Barnes will have a solid defensive game plan drawn up that will create advantages for Tennessee.
The presence or absence of Jefferson is very critical here, and Iowa State is calling him a “game-time decision.” If he goes, I don't expect him at full strength in this matchup, so I'm essentially getting four points with a team I believe can win outright.
My Pick: Tennessee +4
