NCAAB Odds, Pick for Texas Tech vs. Villanova

In a Battle 4 Atlantis with a strong field, but no glaring favorite, the winner of Wednesday's matchup between the Villanova Wildcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders will have its eyes on Thursday's title game.

Both teams are talented enough to do so, with each bringing a unique set of challenges in this fast-paced tournament environment.

Here's Texas Tech vs. Villanova odds and a pick, including a college basketball betting guide for Wednesday, Nov. 22.

It's Grant McCasland's first year as head coach in Lubbock and thus far, the Red Raiders have held the status quo. Tech is playing a slow pace and defending at an elite level, just like McCasland's North Texas teams have been doing for the last few years.

The Red Raiders rank in the top 10 nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and haven't allowed an opponent over .9 points per possession.

The offense hasn't gotten off the ground yet, but it will be built on the backcourt. Sophomore guard Pop Isaacs is the leading scorer and primary creator so far, joined on the perimeter by Iowa-then-West Virginia transfer Joe Toussaint. His hard-nosed, high-energy playing style should fit right into McCasland's coaching scheme.

It's hard to really get a grasp on this team yet, given the level of competition to date. Tech has only played three games so far. Dozens of Division I teams have doubled that number, with some having played seven contests already.

The Red Raiders' three opponents have been two Texas A&M satellite campuses — plus San Jose State — with all three games being played at home.

This trip to the Bahamas could be eye-opening for Texas Tech.

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While Texas Tech has been untested, we've already seen Villanova at its best and worst so far this season.

Wildcat fans were concerned about this season following a loss to city-rival Penn. Sure, a road game within Philly's Big 5 is no sure thing, but Villanova shouldn't be getting out-rebounded (and little bit bullied in the paint) by Penn, nor losing to an Ivy League team that turned it over twice as often as the Cats.

The worries created by the Penn game were offset immediately in Villanova's next outing, where the Wildcats routed Maryland. The Terps shot 12-of-60 from the floor in that game and trailed by as many as 32 points. Maryland had just 19 points at the halfway mark of the second half. If not for 17 Villanova turnovers, the Wildcats could've really run up a massive winning margin.

These kinds of swings in play may seem volatile, but in some way, it's expected of Villanova. This team takes 3-pointers at the fifth-highest rate in the country and has the 12th-highest percentage of points from long range, per KenPom.

In today's modern game, that can work for a team with great shooters. Villanova, however, has plenty of good shooters, yet few that stand out.

Take the career shooting marks of Villanova's top seven players and you'll end up with a shooting percentage around the national average. That can lead to some cold nights, like a 9-of-33 game versus Penn, where everyone but Justin Moore and Eric Dixon combined to shoot 3-of-18 from downtown.

It's also a risky game to rely on 3s while playing at a slow pace. It leaves Villanova very susceptible to a cold shooting spell, which can lead to unlikely losses.

Early in the season, we're still dealing with some small sample sizes, yet it might be time to expect some regression to creep in.

Through three games, all against pedestrian competition, Texas Tech is shooting just 20.6% from downtown. For reference, no team shot under 26% for the season last year, and Tech hit better than 34% from deep for the year.

Four Red Raiders have taken the lion's share of this season's attempts. Three (Isaacs, Toussaint and Darrion Williams) are shooting below their career average. Chance McMillian hit 42% from deep on a high volume of attempts for Grand Canyon last year, but is just 3-of-13 so far this season.

Shooting regression will come for Texas Tech — its a matter of how quickly and how decisively that regression happens.

Betting on it coming against a team like Villanova is tricky. It feels like there's a flashing green light, given the amount of bricks Maryland tossed up in Villanova's last game. But even if the Red Raiders start hitting shots, Villanova might answer with a 3-point barrage of its own.

Unless the Tech shooting regression is a tidal wave, Villanova should have enough advantages elsewhere to overcome it. The Wildcats' size advantage in the backcourt plays perfect for an offense that loves to invert with its guards in the post and its bigs spotting up to shoot.

Pick: Villanova -152

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