UConn Beats San Diego State: Who Profited? Who Won the Most?
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Amid a midseason slump in which UConn went 2-6, the Huskies’ national championship odds dipped as low as 22-1.
Before one of those losses in January, a bettor in Michigan ripped $15,000 on the Huskies to win the NCAA Tournament at 20-1.
That pick didn’t look great pre-tournament. After being grouped in a side of the bracket with Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga, the Huskies entered the tournament as long as 25-1 underdogs.
Those odds were worse than eight other teams and tied with two others — including Purdue and Arizona, which failed to reach the Round of 32.
And yet, here’s UConn, lifting up its fifth national title since 1999 — more over that timeframe than Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, Kansas and Indiana.
That bettor in Michigan — if they didn’t hedge at all along the way — won $500,000 off of that ticket on Monday night, after a beatdown of San Diego State.
Some others profited without having to sweat it out for three months. But it took a lot more upfront capital.
One bettor at FanDuel slapped $300,000 on UConn’s moneyline at about -350 odds. That bettor won about $85,000.
Another put down $150,000 to win about $45,000.
UConn had been among six teams that my colleague Ryan Collinsworth targeted in the pre-tournament futures markets based on advanced metrics.
The last three national champions had an:
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) of 113.9 or higher.
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) of 96.2 or lower.
- Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) of 23.83 or higher.
Only six teams fulfilled those metrics: Houston (+550), Alabama (+750), Purdue (+1200), UCLA (+1400), Texas (+1600) and, lastly, UConn (+2300).
The Huskies are the fifth-longest pre-tournament team to win it all. Only ones with worse odds were: 2014 UConn (+10000), 1985 Villanova (+3500), 2011 UConn (+2500) and 1983 N.C. State (+2500).
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