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UConn Beats San Diego State: Who Profited? Who Won the Most?

UConn Beats San Diego State: Who Profited? Who Won the Most? article feature image

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Amid a midseason slump in which UConn went 2-6, the Huskies’ national championship odds dipped as low as 22-1.

Before one of those losses in January, a bettor in Michigan ripped $15,000 on the Huskies to win the NCAA Tournament at 20-1.

That pick didn’t look great pre-tournament. After being grouped in a side of the bracket with Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga, the Huskies entered the tournament as long as 25-1 underdogs.

Those odds were worse than eight other teams and tied with two others — including Purdue and Arizona, which failed to reach the Round of 32.

And yet, here’s UConn, lifting up its fifth national title since 1999 — more over that timeframe than Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, Kansas and Indiana.

That bettor in Michigan — if they didn’t hedge at all along the way — won $500,000 off of that ticket on Monday night, after a beatdown of San Diego State.

Some others profited without having to sweat it out for three months. But it took a lot more upfront capital.

One bettor at FanDuel slapped $300,000 on UConn’s moneyline at about -350 odds. That bettor won about $85,000.

Another put down $150,000 to win about $45,000.

UConn had been among six teams that my colleague Ryan Collinsworth targeted in the pre-tournament futures markets based on advanced metrics.

The last three national champions had an:

  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) of 113.9 or higher.
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) of 96.2 or lower.
  • Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) of 23.83 or higher.

Only six teams fulfilled those metrics: Houston (+550), Alabama (+750), Purdue (+1200), UCLA (+1400), Texas (+1600) and, lastly, UConn (+2300).

The Huskies are the fifth-longest pre-tournament team to win it all. Only ones with worse odds were: 2014 UConn (+10000), 1985 Villanova (+3500), 2011 UConn (+2500) and 1983 N.C. State (+2500).

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