NCAAB Odds, Pick for UConn vs Villanova
(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) Pictured: Eric Dixon
UConn vs Villanova Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 139.5 -105o / -115u | -185 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 139.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
Kyle Neptune's Villanova Wildcats have lost two of their past three games and are desperate for a statement win. The Wildcats are hosting the No. 1 team in the country, the Connecticut Huskies, on Saturday night.
The Wildcats are 4-2 in Big East play, so if they want any prayer of winning the regular season crown, this is a must-win contest. Meanwhile, the Huskies continue to rip through the Big East schedule like a chainsaw through butter.
Everyone knows that I think the Huskies are the best team in the country. Big man Donovan Clingan returned Wednesday against Creighton and looked the part in limited action.
The Huskies survived without Clingan, just in time for the thick of their conference schedule. The offense is currently third in adjusted efficiency.
The key for the Huskies in the game lies on the defensive end of the floor. Their unit is a solid group, but they do not create turnovers and are over-aggressive.
Their high foul rate is a big problem for this matchup because the Wildcats are the best free-throw shooting team in the country. If the Huskies get into foul trouble early, Villanova will make them pay.
The interior presence of Clingan helps, but I still have questions about their perimeter defense. Not to say it's a major issue, but the Wildcats take a ton of 3s every game.
The Huskies are by far the superior team, and there is no questioning their No. 1 AP ranking. However, they're due for some negative regression, according to ShotQuality.
The Wildcats have to bring their best offensively if they want to steal this game at home. They enter the matchup ranked 38th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
There is no shred of evidence that shows the Wildcats are a better basketball team, but there are a few reasons why I like them here at home. I spoke about their ability to make free throws, and the Huskies can be foul-happy at times.
Forward Eric Dixon draws a decent matchup in the game, as he will need to continue his superb shooting from deep. The Wildcats are going to have no success scoring inside, especially with Clingan back in the lineup.
They shoot a lot of 3s, but are shooting 34% as a team. The Huskies aren't the best at defending the perimeter, which could lead to more shots falling from deep.
Something tells me the depth advantage and their free-throw shooting will be a big difference in the game. The Wildats are also due for some positive regression, which could be massive if the Huskies' negative regression occurs.
UConn vs. Villanova
Betting Pick & Prediction
This number has steamed since opening, but this is a buy-low, sell-high spot. It is scary, but the Wildcats should be ready for battle at home.
The Huskies are legit threats to win back-to-back championships, but they may be in trouble on the road. I'm severely concerned about their foul rate and the Wildcats are nearly automatic whenever they reach the stripe.
The Wildcats have no chance to win the game if they aren't hitting their shots from 3, but I have a hunch they will cash in on that alluded positive shooting regression.
Between the desperation of the Wildcats and the situational spot at home, I am going to buy low on Villanova.
Pick: Villanova +3.5 (Play to +2)
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