The Villanova Wildcats take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, MI. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Michigan is favored by -15.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1700. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here’s my Villanova vs. Michigan prediction and college basketball picks for December 9, 2025.
Villanova vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Under 149.5 (Play to 147.5)
My Villanova vs Michigan best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Villanova vs. Michigan Odds
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +950 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -1700 |
- Villanova vs Michigan spread: Michigan -15.5
- Villanova vs Michigan over/under: 149.5 points
- Villanova vs Michigan moneyline: Villanova +950, Michigan -1700
Villanova vs Michigan College Basketball Betting Preview
Villanova Basketball
This is a critical season for Villanova's program. Jay Wright's surprise retirement resulted in the Kyle Neptune era at Villanova, after his longtime stint as Wright's right-hand man and a brief — but reassuring — period leading Fordham as head coach.
The Neptune era was, quite simply, a disaster.
After Wright led the Wildcats to nine straight years with a six-seed or better — with two national titles, three Final Fours and seven Big East regular-season titles in that span — Neptune failed to reach the NCAA Tournament in three tries.
The ethos of Wright's tenure was watered down with Neptune at the helm. Villanova's defense, once the pride of the program, took a clear step back.
In a coup, Villanova was able to hire Kevin Willard, then the coach of a Big Ten program fresh off a Sweet 16 trip. Willard has his doubters — myself included at times — but he offered a clear raising of the program's floor. He consistently built competitive teams at Big East rival Seton Hall and made Maryland a player in a crowded Big Ten.
Taking over a program with big expectations would require a strong offseason. Willard succeeded in all three phases of recruiting. First, he was able to retain starting guard Tyler Perkins and big-name recruit Matthew Hodge.
Willard pivoted then to the high school recruiting market, bringing in four-star recruits, Acaden Lewis and Chris Jeffrey.
Lastly, Willard won in the transfer portal, nabbing Bryce Lindsay from James Madison and Duke Brennan from Grand Canyon. Lindsay has been red hot, making nearly half of his 3s and scoring over 18 points per game. Brennan leads the nation in rebounds per game and grabs offensive boards at the highest rate in the country.
So far, this impressive roster has scored an incomplete grade on its report card. A narrow loss to highly-ranked BYU in the opener was a good sign.
Since then Villanova hasn't faced another test. The Cats' next seven opponents rank outside KenPom's top-140 teams. This is typical of Willard, who never ranked higher than 278th in KenPom's strength of schedule metric in his time at Maryland.
The Wildcats' last three non-conference games will come against power-conference opponents, starting with this daunting test in Ann Arbor.
In better news, Villanova has faced the best 3-point shooting percentage in the nation, with opponents making 43% from long range.
That should regress as the season wears on and help the Wildcats' defense, yet it does raise an eyebrow about how Villanova is contesting on the perimeter.
Michigan Basketball
It's difficult to argue that any team in college basketball is playing better than Michigan right now.
The AP Poll kept the Wolverines out of the top spot in favor of red-hot Arizona, a questionable choice given Michigan's recent outings.
The Wolverines have won five straight games by 25 or more points, including back-to-back 40-point wins. Michigan is not gobbling up cupcakes either.
The most recent four games in that sample came over power-conference or top-50 foes, with only one of those games coming in Ann Arbor.
Dusty May's team is dominating teams, starting on the defensive end of the floor. Michigan has allowed just two opponents to manage one point per possession, one of which was Oakland, in a 44-point Wolverines win.
All eight Michigan opponents have had their worst or second-worst offensive performance of the season when facing the Wolverines. Michigan allows the worst 2-point shooting percentage in the nation at just 37.5%.
For context, only two of college basketball's 364 teams are shooting that poorly inside the arc offensively, Rider and North Carolina Central. Michigan is making the opponents in a top-10 schedule perform like low-major bottom feeders.
This isn't shooting luck due to regress. It's a sharply coached defense designed to force tough, contested shots.
Offensively, two transfers are shouldering the biggest load for Michigan. Former UAB star Yaxel Lendeborg is pacing Michigan's scoring and leading the team in rebounding.
His inside-out game is a matchup problem for nearly every opponent. Michigan's offense is often spurred by assist leader and UNC transfer Elliot Cadeau.
He looks much more confident and aggressive than he did in two up and down seasons as a Tar Heel. I'm skeptical that his outside shooting has truly improved and may regress.
After two years shooting 28% on 139 attempts in Chapel Hill, he's up to 37% this season. However, his free throw shooting remains an issue, sitting under 60%, which is indicative of his true shooting ability.
Regardless of his shooting acumen, Cadeau has been super effective as a slasher and creator, using ball screens to spark offensive success for the Wolverines.
Defensive stops get the ball into Cadeau's hands to lead a high-tempo attack against transition defenses, who are unable to stop each of Michigan's scoring options.
Villanova vs. Michigan Betting Analysis
If you want to forecast a close game or a Villanova upset here, there's a few key indicators. That shooting regression for the Wildcats' defense should kick in at some point.
An ice cold night from outside by the Wolverines would certainly increase the Wildcats' chances. It's possible, with Michigan riding high on its win streak. The Wolverines are shooting over 44% from deep over their last three games, with more than 13 makes per game. Those numbers should dip at some point.
Even if Michigan is cold, does Villanova have its own path to points? You might look at the offensive glass, where Nova has been one of the sport's best teams, thanks largely to Brennan's efforts.
Michigan rebounds well, holding other offensive rebounding beats like Auburn and Gonzaga below their season rates.
If anything, Villanova's game plan for a win here involves slowing the pace, gobbling up rebounds and counting on some bad Michigan shooting. Whether or not that keeps the Cats in the game against the nation's hottest team, I'm skeptical, yet I'm confident the Wildcats can attempt to muddy up the game.
The total for this game has already ticked upward at some books, from 149.5 to 150, but I lean the other way. I'll grab the under.
My Pick: Under 149.5 (Play to 147.5)
