I've got good news and bad news.
The good news: The Big East Tournament is back at Madison Square Garden for another year of the best Championship Week atmosphere in college hoops.
The bad news: The Big East has not had its finest season, expected to send just three teams to the NCAA Tournament.
I'm hopeful that with a little March magic and a sprinkle of MSG mayhem, the good news will easily cancel that bad news, making for another great edition of the Big East Tournament.
There are still plenty of great matchups fueled by some of the hottest rivalries in college basketball, so let's take a look at my Big East Tournament picks and college basketball best bets for the 2026 conference tourney.
Big East Tournament Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| UConn | +100 |
| St. John's | +185 |
| Villanova | +650 |
| Seton Hall | +1400 |
| Creighton | +4000 |
| Marquette | +6000 |
| Providence | +8000 |
| Butler | +10000 |
| DePaul | +11000 |
| Georgetown | +13000 |
| Xavier | +2500 |
Odds via DraftKings as of Monday, March 9.
Big East Tournament Bracket
Big East Tournament Favorite: UConn (+100)
Danny Hurley has a knack for dramatics.
On Feb. 5, his Huskies sat at 22-1. UConn had not lost in over two months, and the lone loss on the docket came to Arizona, which at that time was undefeated and the top-ranked team in the country.
UConn’s chances of a third national title in four years, making senior Alex Karaban the first player to collect three titles since the days of John Wooden, were at an all-time high.
Since then, UConn dropped three of its final eight games. It has made for a worrisome trend, without prompting the panic button.
The first loss came at St. John’s, the second-best team in the Big East — a reasonable game to drop.
After a scare from lowly Georgetown, UConn lost to Creighton at home. UConn then won at tourney-bound Villanova and embarrassed St. John’s in a rout.
After another close win over Seton Hall, UConn lost its season finale at mediocre Marquette.
That loss took on a life of its own as Hurley responded to a (correct) no call on his team’s final possession with a spazz attack, getting nose-to-cheek with the official, earning a buzzer-beating double technical tossing.
The Big East reviewed the tape to see if Hurley should be suspended for contacting the referee, but the conference (surprisingly) came away with inconclusive evidence.
Also inconclusive: how good this Huskies team is.
Undoubtedly, this is a top-10 team in the nation, yet those losses down the stretch barfed away the Big East title, giving St. John’s the top seed on its home floor.
UConn has gone just 11-20 ATS this season after being favored in all 31 games. The Huskies have covered just four of their last 17 spreads.
It’s fair to have real questions about the ceiling of this team after failing to take control of a floundering conference.
Best Big East Tournament Future: St. John's (+185)
Fans of Villanova, Seton Hall or anyone else below the top two teams are welcome to find me and clown this sentence if it bites me: Betting anyone to win this tournament except St. John’s and UConn is as good as tossing your money away.
UConn has no value at even money, plus there are several factors in play for the Johnnies.
The Red Storm have the benefit of calling Madison Square Garden their home floor, adding some extra juice to every St. John’s game this week.
Yes, every fan base in the Big East travels to New York this week, especially UConn. But the crowd will lean St. John’s in every possible matchup.
Speaking of matchups, thanks to UConn’s loss to Marquette, St. John’s took the top seed and the far easier path to the title game. UConn may see a rematch with Marquette in the quarterfinals before potentially meeting Villanova in the semis.
The Wildcats have been the clear third-best team in the conference, the only team outside the dominant top two in line to earn a bid to the Big Dance.
UConn swept Nova in two meetings this year, though not without some difficulty. Villanova forced overtime on the road at UConn despite its backcourt shooting 1-for-21 from the field in that game.
St. John’s gets an easier go, starting with the winner of Providence and Butler.
Though the Friars stole a game at MSG this year, PC head coach Kim English has reportedly already been told he won’t return next season. A lame duck coach isn’t likely to mount a run in a tournament this competitive.
In the semifinals, St. John’s would face either Seton Hall or Creighton, two teams it beat twice each this season, by an average margin of 14.5 points.
If UConn and the Johnnies meet in a clash of the titans Saturday night, you might lean toward the Huskies as the favorite, but I’d be more than happy to have a futures ticket doubling my money on a team playing at home with just one loss since Jan. 3.
Best Bid-Stealer Option: Creighton (+4000)
I just said you’d be tossing your money away betting on a long shot. So, if we’re gonna take one, we might as well make it a real wild one.
Logic would say Villanova is worth a look as the Big East’s third-best team. However, the Wildcats went 0-4 against St. John’s and UConn and have not risen to the occasion all season.
In eight games against KenPom’s top 50, Villanova is just 1-7. The Wildcats finished 0-5 against ranked teams.
Creighton, meanwhile, has been pedestrian all year, but does so in an aggressive way. The Bluejays hoist the most 3s in the Big East. That makes the Jays a high-variance team.
At UConn, they made 47% from deep, scoring 91 points in a win. At home against UConn, Creighton shot 5-of-21 from deep, scored 58 points and lost by 27.
Creighton’s bracket allows it to likely face Seton Hall, then St. John’s. Those are the two most 3-point averse teams in the conference. If something about the Big Apple has the Bluejays hot, maybe that’s enough to steal a few games.
I wouldn’t count on it, but at least the odds are juicy.
Big East Bubble Team: Seton Hall
We’re admittedly stretching the definition of bubble here.
The Pirates are a whisper away from being auto-bid or bust after losing three of their final five games. None of the brackets aggregated by the Bracket Matrix has Seton Hall in the field.
Bart Torvik’s metrics have the Pirates as the ninth team outside the cutline. After the rest of the bubble bumbled its way through the regular season’s final weekend, that doesn't leave a lot of hope in Newark.
Seton Hall is 1-5 in Quad 1 games and has two Quad 3 losses, ranking 55th in Wins Above Bubble.
It doesn't help the Pirates that a quarterfinal win over Creighton wouldn’t really move the needle, meaning a semifinal upset over St. John’s is probably still not enough to convince the committee.
Unless the rest of the bubble-dwellers continue popping themselves with loss after loss, Seton Hall’s only real chance is a miracle run to the Big East automatic bid.
