The Big Ten is notorious for flopping in March, as it hasn't had a team win the NCAA Tournament since Michigan State in 2000.
But this year could be different, with Michigan playing the top dog and teams like Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State all acting like title contenders at points during the season. Then there's Wisconsin, which has a set of monster road victories, and Purdue, which was the preseason No. 1.
So, how am I betting the Big Ten Tournament? Here are my college basketball picks, odds, sleepers and the bracket for the event in Indianapolis.
2026 Big Ten Tournament Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michigan | +105 |
| Illinois | +470 |
| Purdue | +550 |
| Michigan State | +650 |
| Nebraska | +1000 |
| UCLA | +3500 |
| Wisconsin | +3500 |
| Iowa | +5000 |
| Ohio State | +7500 |
| Indiana | +10000 |
| Washington | +20000 |
| Northwestern | +30000 |
| USC | +30000 |
| Oregon | +30000 |
| Minnesota | +30000 |
Odds via FanDuel
2026 Big Ten Tournament Bracket
Big Ten Tournament Favorite
Michigan Wolverines
The prohibitive favorites, Michigan, dominated the conference (and the world) all season, winning the Big Ten by four games.
The Wolverines have one of the best offenses and defenses in the country and are fueled by arguably the best front line in college basketball.
While an injury to backup guard L.J. Cason might make them slightly more mortal, they’re still the clear favorites.
Michigan only had four Big Ten games all season decided by two possessions or less, and now it has a bye to the quarterfinals.
There’s a reason why the Wolverines are favored to cut down the nets.
Best Big Ten Tournament Future Wagers
Michigan (+105)
Picking chalk here isn’t the dumbest idea in the world. Michigan is by far the best team in this bracket.
Illinois (+470)
Illinois is quietly a top-five team in the country despite going just 3-4 over its last seven games (three losses in overtime).
But due to tiebreak scenarios, the Illini are slotted on the same side of the bracket as big, bad Michigan, making it a scary choice in the futures market.
Brad Underwood’s crew is the best offensive team in the nation and features a lottery pick in its starting five. Pair that with the biggest roster in the country and a frontline that can at least sort of stack up with Michigan’s, and you have the makings of a potential conference tourney winner.
The concern? Nobody forces fewer turnovers nationally than Illinois, so it's ripe for wonky results.
Michigan State (+650)
Sparty won five straight to close the season prior to losing at Michigan on Sunday. Michigan State is about as steady a team as we have in college basketball and is arguably the best two-way rebounding squad in the nation.
The Spartans play sound, fundamental basketball that revolves around star point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who is the nation’s leader in assist rate (and possibly tripping opponents), and he can carve opposing defenses up at will.
While not the best shooting team in the country, Michigan State’s rebounding ability helps negate that weakness. Defensively, Michigan State is sound and makes opponents beat it over the top with jumpers. It’s difficult to score inside against the Spartans and impossible to grab second chances.
Avoiding Michigan’s side of the bracket is huge, and Sparty also avoids a quarterfinal matchup with Purdue.
The Spartans have the best draw to the championship, making them an enticing option in the futures market.
Best Big Ten Value Bets
Nebraska (+1000)
Nebraska may have sputtered a bit after its insane 20-0 (9-0) start, but the Huskers have the defense and moxie to make a surprise run in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Huskers played Michigan to the wire in Ann Arbor, they won at Illinois and they took down Michigan State.
There isn’t a team in the conference that they can't beat, and their defense is truly elite.
With their ability to get scorching hot from deep, the Huskers are a worthy flyer bet.
Purdue (+550)
Purdue was the heavy preseason favorite to cut down the nets in Chicago, but the momentum it garnered has come to a full stop late in league play.
The Boilermakers finished 0-3 against the top teams in the league and have a real “toughness” issue and weakness to athletic wings.
A bet on Purdue is a hope that it returns to form and shows the league why it was preseason No. 1. The Boilers still have arguably the best point guard in the country in Braden Smith and one of the best bigs in Trey Kaufman-Renn.
Wisconsin (+3500)
A dark horse bet on Wisconsin? Why not? The Badgers won at Michigan and Illinois this season, proving they can beat anyone.
Greg Gard’s offense can get liquid hot behind the stellar play of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell.
A big frontline keeps them respectable inside, too.
Guards win in March, and Wisconsin has two of the very best in the Big Ten.
Iowa (+5000)
The Hawkeyes rank in the top 25 of KenPom, but marquee wins have eluded them. Iowa was swept by Purdue and lost its only battles with Nebraska, Michigan State, Michigan and Illinois.
The talent disparity between Iowa and the top dogs was too much to overcome in the regular season.
But in a tournament setting, Ben McCollum’s style of taking the air out of the ball and limiting games to 60 possessions or less can lead to high-variance outcomes.
Bennett Stirtz might be the best game manager in the country, and he’s good enough to put the Hawkeyes on his back and take them for a surprise run through the bracket.
Breaking Down Big Ten Bubble Teams
UCLA Bruins
UCLA has likely done enough to earn an at-large bid to the Big Dance. Mick Cronin complained a bunch, but his Bruins finished 13-7 in league play and earned the six-seed in the conference tournament.
Not too shabby.
From a futures perspective, there’s no value betting on the Bruins. Their record away from home this season is abysmal, and they don’t have the depth to win a week-long tourney.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana’s big loss at Ohio State puts it far behind the eight-ball for an at-large bid.
The Hoosiers need to win their first matchup against likely Northwestern and beat Purdue to even sniff the Field. A win over Nebraska could also be necessary.
TLDR: they have no chance.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State can breathe easy after its win over Indiana. The Buckeyes are likely locked into the Field of 68, and they earned a bye to the third round of the Big Ten tourney.
They likely won’t get past Michigan, a team that handled them twice this season, but at least they’re dancing for the first time since 2022.
