Wake Forest’s Collapse Complete: What it Means for NCAA Tournament Odds

Two weeks ago, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons looked like a shoo-in for the NCAA Tournament.

They had the sixth-best chance to make the Big Dance among a long litany of teams DraftKings had on the bubble. Wake Forest was listed at -270 to make the tournament, which translates to a 72.97% implied probability. Meanwhile, it was +215 to miss out, which translates to a 31.75% implied probability.

However, the Demon Deacons went into the tank ever since, and their free fall concluded with an 81-69 loss to Pittsburgh in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament.

Wake Forest has now lost four of its last six games, and ESPN’s famed bracketologist Joe Lunardi projects the Demon Decons will be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday. Lunardi has them as one of his “First Four Out” alongside Texas A&M, New Mexico and Villanova. That’s more generous than other NCAA experts, who believe they are firmly bound for the NIT, instead.

ESPN listed Wake Forest as one of three bubble teams entering the ACC Tournament with Virginia and Pittsburgh, which makes its loss to the Panthers particularly painful. The Demon Deacons were the 5-seed entering the tournament while Pittsburgh was the 4-seed and Virginia the 2-seed.

Thursday’s game between Wake Forest and Pittsburgh was essentially a play-in game. Unfortunately, the Demon Deacons were a virtual no-show. Wake Forest didn’t put up much of a fight and trailed by 12 entering halftime. Pittsburgh went on a 12-1 run over a three-minute span early in the second half, putting Wake Forest in a 19-point hole it couldn’t overcome.