WCC Odds, Betting Report | Down Year for Zags Presents Potential Futures Value
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The script has flipped since the last time we broke down the WCC. As the end of January nears, the conference may be lucky to earn two NCAA tournament bids.
There's a change of the pecking order in the conference, as the Bulldogs are no longer the favorites to win the regular season title. The Saint Mary's Gaels are now a slight favorite and have been the most impressive team in the conference.
Let's see if there's any new betting value in our latest WCC State of the Conference.
The Favorites
Saint Mary's Gaels (-130) & Gonzaga Bulldogs (+140)
The regular season title comes down to the two matchups between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. Right now, the Gaels are on absolute fire.
The last time we checked into the WCC, the Gaels couldn't buy a bucket offensively. They're not an offensive juggernaut, but they improved on that side of the floor.
Guard Aidan Mahaney finally broke out of his offensive slump, and his 3PT% has sky-rocketed to 37% on the season. He and Alex Ducas are the reason for the Gaels' offensive success as of late.
For the Bulldogs, they stunningly lost as heavy favorites at Santa Clara, and it may cost them the regular season title by the end of the season.
Offensively, the Bulldogs will have the edge against the Gaels, but I don't trust them to win two games against Randy Bennett and company. They're still struggling mightily from 3 and are shooting 71% at the free-throw line.
If you like either of these teams, there's more value if you bet on either side in both head-to-head matchups. I don't see any value at these current odds.
The Contender
San Francisco Dons (+1000)
The Dons continue to be a consistent, balanced basketball team. They're 42nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and are the 62nd-best team in the country, according to KenPom.
I like the way they play, but unfortunately, they won't get a bid into the Big Dance unless they win the conference tournament.
They're a great free-throw shooting team and are dominant in scoring inside. The issue with the Dons is they've already lost to the Gaels at home, so their path to winning the regular season title seems nearly impossible.
However, there should be some value on the Dons at Gonzaga on Thursday, so keep that in mind when that game opens.
The Long Shot
Santa Clara Broncos (+1500)
Santa Clara has an even taller task of winning the conference, so I won't spend too much time digging into its squad.
The win against the Bulldogs was impressive, but if anything, it spoke more volume about the state of Gonzaga.
Carlos Marshall Jr. has been a flamethrower from 3 (42%) and is one of the best offensive players in the conference.
Defensively, the Broncos don't force turnovers and allow too many clean looks to trust them in any matchup.
The Stragglers
The WCC is so awful that I couldn't even throw another team in the long shot section. The Dons and Broncos are far more talented than the remaining teams, which isn't saying much.
It's hard to gauge any betting value in this section on a game-to-game basis, but I have noticed that San Diego has been a corpse on the road.
On Tuesday, the Toreros head to Portland, and they're 0-4 ATS on the road thus far. This might be a good buy-low opportunity for Portland, and I would monitor how the Toreros look on the road moving forward.
Meanwhile, Pepperdine has two of the top three scorers — Michael Ajayi and Houston Mallette — in the conference on its squad, so if you're into props, you might get some value on their point totals against horrific conference defenses.
Is it Next Season Yet?
Pacific Tigers (+250000)
Nothing has changed with the Tigers, as they remain one of the worst teams in the entire country. As I told you in the last State of the Conference, they continue to be a terrific fade candidate.
The Tigers are a miserable 3-15 ATS this season and have only covered twice since November 10. They travel to Moraga, California, to take on the Gaels on Thursday, and I'll be looking to fade them into oblivion.
They can't score and they can't defend. It's a miserable, miserable basketball team. I don't think the market has caught up on how bad they truly are, so I would keep fading them until further notice.
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