What If Oddsmakers or KenPom Made the 68-Team NCAA Tournament Field?

There is no proper way to conduct Selection Sunday. It is built for drama and it is built for debate.

But the way the NCAA selects the 68-team field appears to be dated. As avid sports bettors, it makes us wonder what would happen if oddsmakers selected the field instead of the selection committee.

The NCAA doesn't hide the selection process. They release the NET rankings throughout the season, talk about the other metrics they use when selecting teams, and have members go on TV and dissect the process. Yet, somehow, every time the bracket comes out there are major question marks.

Upsets are inevitable in the NCAA Tournament. But is it truly an upset when the higher seed is favored over the lower seed according to the sportsbooks?

Let's talk about New Mexico for example. New Mexico received the No. 11 seed and a matchup against the No. 6 seed Clemson in the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico opened and is currently a 1.5-point favorite against Clemson.

The NCAA admitted on Sunday that New Mexico was a bid stealer. That means the Lobos would not be in the field if New Mexico had not won the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

But according to Haslametrics.com — a site that predicts scores based on metrics — New Mexico would be favored over 16 teams that received at-large bids in the NCAA Tournament on a neutral court.

Haslametrics predicts New Mexico would beat Virginia 66.43-62.68, making New Mexico around a 4-point favorite over No. 10 seeded Virginia. Effectively, the selection committee said Virginia deserved an at-large spot over New Mexico. In addition, Virginia is a No. 10 seed while New Mexico is a No. 11 seed.

Virginia was the most controversial team selected by the committee. The advanced metrics do not favor Virginia as a team worthy of an at-large bid. Virginia is ranked No. 69 on KenPom and No. 58 on Haslametrics.

Based on Haslametrics, Virginia would be a 4-point underdog to St. John's, a 3-point underdog to Villanova, a 3-point underdog to Wake Forest and a 2.5-point underdog to Pittsburgh all on a neutral court. All four of those teams missed the NCAA Tournament.

The Action Network's college basketball expert Anthony Dabbundo says he would have Virginia as a 3.5 or 4-point underdog to St. John's and New Mexico.

The analytics community takes issue with more than just which teams are selected. There is also an issue with how teams are seeded.

Auburn is likely the most controversial. Auburn was awarded a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Auburn is a top-four team in the country according to KenPom and Haslametrics. The Tigers are also in a region with the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. That means we could see two of the top four teams in overall efficiency face each other in a Sweet 16 game — a travesty for either team's fans.

Sure, that makes for a fantastic Sweet 16 matchup for the rest of us. But is that a fair situation for Auburn? Or even UConn? The selection committee might need to take a hard look in the mirror and decide whether they should begin to take advantage of the resources available in 2024.

68-Team Field Based On KenPom Adjusted Efficiency Ratings

*KenPom is the closest thing to knowing how oddsmakers would rate teams.