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2018 College Football Bowl Projections, Week 12: New Year’s Six Taking Shape

Nov 12, 2018 7:35 PM EST
  • We've got just two weeks of college football left, so bowl projections become a little more clear.
  • The New Year's Six games are taking shape with LSU, Oklahoma, Ohio State and UCF among the participants.

We’re just a few short weeks from the end of the college football regular season and therefore, bowl announcements. Pour one out on this fine fall Sunday morning.

In anticipation of those bowl announcements, we’re projecting the participants in all 39 games. We’re also projecting the point spread in these hypothetical matchups using The Action Network power ratings.

2018 College Football Bowl Projections 

So much of the early-season projections are based on what we think we know about these teams, but now we know a little more and have real results the bowl picture is getting clearer.

College Football Playoff Projections

Our top four remains the same after these teams continue to roll.

College Football New Year’s Six Bowls

For the first time in a while, there were almost no changes in the New Year’s Six bowls. The only change? Syracuse!

The weirdness of this season has kind of been mitigated by Alabama and Clemson’s dominance, but there’s no clear-cut team for that final New Year’s Six at-large bid. Florida, Syracuse, Penn State and a handful of others could be in the running depending on what happens in the next two weeks.

Every Other 2018 Bowl Game Projection

Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West on Saturday. Northwestern!

But this is a good lesson in bowl selection — the brass for the higher-ranking games don’t have to pick the better teams. They’ll usually stick to a loose pecking order based on performance from that season, but they can and will take a team that will fill seats if they want. 

That’s why Northwestern won’t get in the Big Ten’s upper-tier bowls. That, and they lost to Akron.

College Football Bowl Tie-Ins for 2018-19

College Football Playoff

  • Cotton Bowl semifinal (Arlington, Texas)
  • Orange Bowl semifinal (Miami)

New Year’s Six

  • Sugar (New Orleans): Big 12 vs. SEC
  • Rose (Pasadena, Calif.): Big Ten vs. Pac-12
  • Peach (Atlanta): At-large vs. at-large
  • Fiesta (Glendale, Ariz.): At-large vs. at-large

The highest-ranked Group of 5 team will go to either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl, depending on geography.

Every Other Bowl

Notre Dame has ACC bowl ties, so if it doesn’t reach a New Year’s Six Bowl (it looks very likely that it will), it will take an ACC spot.

BYU was supposed to be tied to the Poinsettia Bowl, but that no longer exists. The Cougars do have a deal with ESPN that guarantees they’ll play in a bowl if eligible.

Liberty has a deal with the Cure Bowl, as well, but it might be tough for the Flames to get to six FBS wins.

  • Citrus Bowl (Orlando): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
  • Outback Bowl (Tampa): Big Ten vs. SEC
  • Gator Bowl (Jacksonville): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
  • Holiday Bowl (San Diego): Big Ten vs. Pac-12
  • Liberty Bowl (Memphis): Big 12 vs. SEC
  • Military Bowl (Annapolis): ACC vs. American
  • Alamo Bowl (San Antonio): Big 12 vs. Pac-12
  • Arizona Bowl (Tucson): Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
  • Camping World Bowl (Orlando): Big 12 vs. ACC
  • Sun Bowl (El Paso): ACC vs. Pac-12
  • Belk Bowl (Charlotte): SEC vs. ACC
  • Music City Bowl (Nashville): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
  • Texas Bowl (Houston): Big 12 vs. SEC
  • Pinstripe Bowl (New York City): Big Ten vs. ACC
  • Independence Bowl (Shreveport, La.): SEC vs. ACC
  • Cactus Bowl (Tempe): Big 12 vs. Pac-12
  • Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit): Big Ten vs. ACC
  • Heart of Dallas Bowl: Big Ten vs. Conference USA
  • San Francisco Bowl: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
  • Hawaii Bowl: Mountain West vs. Conference USA
  • Dollar General Bowl (Mobile): MAC vs. Sun Belt
  • Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth): Big 12 vs. American
  • Birmingham Bowl: SEC vs. American
  • Potato Bowl (Boise): Mountain West vs. MAC
  • Bahamas Bowl: Conference USA vs. MAC
  • Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa): American vs. Conference USA
  • Frisco Bowl (Texas): American vs. at-large
  • Boca Raton Bowl: American vs. Conference USA
  • New Orleans Bowl: Sun Belt vs. Conference USA
  • Cure Bowl (Orlando): American vs. Sun Belt
  • Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, Ala.): Sun Belt vs. MAC
  • Las Vegas Bowl: Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
  • New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque): Mountain West vs. Conference USA
Credit:

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Max Borghi

Follow Steve Petrella on Twitter
@steve_petrella

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