Much of the value in betting college football regular-season win totals has dried up.
Sharp bettors (including our staff here at Action Network) have been going through those numbers with a fine-tooth comb since they dropped this spring and summer. But that doesn’t mean you have to sit out the win totals game just because you’re late.
A few books have dropped head-to-head win total prop bets in anticipation of the 2026 season.
Most props center around rivals (like Alabama vs. Auburn and Iowa vs. Iowa State), likely trying to entice bettors into placing bets because, “we won’t lose more games than our rival!”
With every ancillary market comes value, even in this three-way market.
Keep in mind, FanDuel offers moneyline prices for each side plus the option for a tie. These are graded based on regular-season wins only, so if both Alabama and LSU finish with 10 wins, but the Tide win the SEC Championship to push them to 11-2, this prop bet grades as a tie and any bets on Bama are graded as a loss.
An analyst might call that kind of disparity “noise,” but what I call it is an opportunity. Let's dive into these college football win totals and NCAAF picks for 2026.
Texas A&M More Wins Than Texas (+200)
Just taking the projected win totals and preseason power ratings, it’s easy to see why Texas would be lined as the -145 favorite in this prop bet. But I prefer Texas A&M’s schedule and continuity over Texas’ for this bet. Let’s look at their win totals:
- Texas Over 9.5 (+108 · BetRivers)
- Texas A&M Over 8.5 (-112 · BetRivers)
These two teams cap the regular season with their head-to-head Black Friday showdown played this year in College Station.
A&M projects as a slight underdog (+1.5), but hosting that game is a massive benefit for a program that’s 19-4 at Kyle Field since 2023.
The rivals share five opponents, three of which even come aligned with home/away splits (both at LSU, at Missouri and host Arkansas), and a fourth, Oklahoma, is played away from their home venues (Texas, of course, plays the Sooners in Dallas).
It’s the slate of not-shared opponents where I lean toward Texas A&M.
- Texas nonconference slate: Texas State, Ohio State, UTSA (all home)
- Texas A&M nonconference slate: Missouri State, Arizona State, The Citadel (all home)
- Texas non-shared SEC opponents: Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State (all home)
- Texas A&M non-shared SEC opponents: Kentucky, at Alabama, at South Carolina
A&M projects to be a slight underdog at Alabama, but favored at South Carolina and comfortably against Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Texas sees less of a margin against Ole Miss and Florida, two teams with talent across the board and, in the Gators, a massive upgrade in the coaching staff.
If you lined this prop at even both sides, I’d probably side with Texas.
But +200 for Texas A&M is simply too big a margin for a team that returns 10 FBS starters on offense and eight on defense, plus draws the far more favorable nonconference schedule and a comparable, if not slightly easier, SEC schedule.
BYU More Wins Than Utah (+115)
I believe we’re really underselling BYU this season. Although preseason ratings project the Cougars for 8.8 wins and the Utes for 8.6, the pathway to more is much more obvious for BYU than Utah.
Two games stand out on BYU’s schedule: vs. Notre Dame and at Utah. In all 10 others, the Cougars project to be at least -3.5 favorites with seven games as double-digit favorites.
Utah, meanwhile, has a thinner margin with three late toss-ups (vs. BYU, at Arizona, at TCU), all of which come consecutively in November. The win totals for each reflect that:
- BYU Over 8.5 (-155 · BetMGM)
- Utah Over 8.5 (-135 · BetMGM)
BYU loses defensive coordinator Jay Hill to Michigan but promoted from within, naming Kelly Poppinga the new DC. The Cougars also return their starting quarterback, 1,300-yard rusher and eight defensive starters.
Utah turns over its head coach and both coordinators and, although its QB and leading rusher return, just four starters from last year’s roster accompany them.
Turnover hits this team pretty hard, though Morgan Scalley and DC Colton Swan are internal promotions.
The big swing game here comes on Nov. 7 in the Holy War played at Utah.
BYU projects to be a slight favorite, though I’d be surprised to see it lined that way if it were posted as a Game of the Year option today.
The Cougars took the 2024 Holy War in Salt Lake City and defended their title at home last year. In fact, Utah hasn’t won this rivalry game since 2019 thanks to a 3-0 run for BYU.
The Cougars have fewer projected toss-up games and have a vastly more favorable November after the Holy War (Baylor, at Kansas, Cincinnati vs. Utah’s at Arizona, at TCU, West Virginia).
LSU More Wins Than Alabama (+125)
The best place to start when considering these head-to-head props is to leverage market-wide win total lines that are already posted and matured. Of course, this isn’t some secret key, as those totals are baked into the lines.
Let’s survey LSU vs. Alabama:
- LSU Over 8.5 (-118 · BetMGM)
- Alabama Over 8.5 (-120 · DraftKings)
From the jump, we’re pretty even, and that’s why this market is priced Alabama +110/LSU +125/tie +650 (theoretical hold of 5.36%). But how each team gets to that 8.5 number differs.
I used aggregated preseason power ratings derived from respected market-movers like SP+ and FPI (among others), plus some weight for last season using Sagarin. Taking those numbers into account, Alabama projects for 8.2 wins and LSU projects for 8.8.
The Tigers’ road slate includes Ole Miss, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas. All things considered, it's pretty favorable after Oxford.
Their toughest games come in the not-so-friendly confines of Death Valley, which changes the calculus (LSU has gone 24-4 at home since 2022). LSU’s toss-up games come against Ole Miss (+2.5), Texas (PK) and Texas A&M (-3.5).
Compare that to Alabama, which is a home ‘dog to Georgia (+2.5 EV) and has toss-up games at Tennessee and against Texas A&M.
The two teams share five common opponents and play each other to begin November. In Death Valley, LSU projects to be a favorite, which is a massive swing game.
The Tigers have the advantage in the head-to-head matchup and don’t project to be more than +1 underdogs to anyone on their schedule this season.
Should November roll around and LSU be in an obvious deficit, we can always hedge betting the Tide in that game.
