Duke won the ACC Championship over Virginia last season, but it was actually Miami that made the most noise in the postseason.
The Hurricanes reached the national title game, where their final drive was stalled after a Carson Beck interception gave Indiana the trophy.
In 2026, the Canes have a new quarterback, but they open as a strong favorite (-146), followed by SMU (+650), Louisville (+850), Clemson (+1400) and Pitt (+1900).
Could the value lie elsewhere in the ACC, though? Let's dive into our 2026 ACC preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2026 ACC Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Miami | -146 |
| SMU | +650 |
| Louisville | +850 |
| Clemson | +1400 |
| Pitt | +1900 |
| NC State | +2000 |
| Virginia | +2000 |
| Virginia Tech | +2800 |
| Florida State | +4300 |
| Cal | +4400 |
| Georgia Tech | +4500 |
| Wake Forest | +8400 |
| Duke | +8800 |
| Syracuse | +15000 |
| North Carolina | +15000 |
| Stanford | +30000 |
| Boston College | +40000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Sunday, Aug. 23.
Pick to Win ACC: Miami
Miami to win the ACC at -140 is available at DraftKings as of writing, but that won't be out there when the season rolls around.
Quarterback Darian Mensah comes over from Duke and should continue Miami's hot streak, along with wide receiver Cooper Barkate.
Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. also returns.
The Hurricanes also have a friendly conference schedule, avoiding SMU and Louisville, the two teams that sit behind them on the odds board this season.
Because those teams aren't on the schedule, I can't find three losses on the docket.
If SMU makes the title game against Miami, I'd expect the Canes to be favorites between -250 and -330. At that price, -140 to win the conference feels very nice.
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Darian Mensah is the third new starting quarterback under Mario Cristobal in as many seasons. Between Duke and Tulane the last two years, he has thrown 56 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and added two rushing scores.
That production is real, but so is a ball-security issue. Mensah has fumbled 16 times in his two FBS seasons and has to clean that up.
He’s not alone on offense. Wide receiver Cooper Barkate followed Mensah from Duke after racking up 1,106 yards and seven touchdowns on 72 receptions.
Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. returns after a 1,192-yard season that saw him score 12 touchdowns.
Slot receiver Malachi Toney moves into Year 2 after 139 targets and 10 touchdowns as a freshman. Toney averaged 2.5 yards per route run, which speaks to how involved he was.
The only problem is the offensive line returns 2,241 snaps, which ranks 122nd in the FBS. Experience up front isn’t a major advantage.
Defensively, there’s turnover. The Hurricanes lose edge pieces Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, but tackle Ahmad Moten Sr. returns off a 4.5-sack season.
Missouri transfer Damon Wilson II is a notable addition on the edge after he put up nine sacks and 54 pressures a season ago. There’s talent behind the departed edges, but it’s mostly inexperienced.
I trust defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to get the defense sorted, but replacing those two edge rushers will be tough.
This roster has a lot of upside in the conference. Mensah brings the explosiveness you saw in Cam Ward’s profile. He still must fix the fumble problems, but the passing pieces around him give him a chance to put up numbers.
This is clearly a top-tier team in the ACC.
Schedule-wise, the Hurricanes also dodge SMU and Louisville, the two teams directly behind them on the odds board.
I’m more interested in handicapping the ACC than buying into a national projection. The two favorites to reach Charlotte for the ACC Championship are Miami and SMU, and I make the Canes favorites of nearly seven points. The moneyline for Miami in that range would typically fall between roughly -250 and -330.
DraftKings has Miami at about -140 to win the conference. Given the schedule, I can’t find three plausible conference losses that would keep it out of the ACC title game. Plus, this gives us plenty of hedging options late in the season.
Pick: Miami to Win ACC (-140)
There's rare stability in this conference. Quarterback Kevin Jennings returns for his senior year — his third season as the starter — after throwing for 3,641 yards and 26 TDs despite playing through an ankle injury.
He closed last year by beating Arizona, 24-19, in the Holiday Bowl behind a 24-0 halftime lead.
Head coach Rhett Lashlee largely kept the core intact, including Jennings, offensive tackle PJ Williams, wide receiver Yamir Knight and linebackers Brandon Miyazono and Alexander Kilgore.
He also reloaded in the portal, adding all‑conference receiver Yannick Smith (East Carolina), running back Kendrick Raphael (Cal) and two secondary pieces in Jimmy Wyrick (UTSA) and Jarvis Lee (USF).
The offensive line is a major plus as well, ranking fifth nationally in returning snaps. This is a top‑five returning line for a third‑year starting quarterback. That makes SMU’s offense the ACC’s most stable unit.
The 2025 season still has some revenge flavor. A season‑ending loss to Cal kept SMU out of the ACC title game last year after the Mustangs made the College Football Playoff the year before, so the rematch at home on Oct. 24 will be circled.
There’s also a tricky November trip to Notre Dame that looms large.
The early worry is the defensive line. SMU opens at Florida State, then plays Louisville two weeks later. Both games come on the road, and if the D‑line struggles, those could turn into two losses.
After that, things get very favorable. The Ponies have a stretch of seven games (with a nicely placed bye) where they play six of their seven games at home: Missouri State, Boston College, Virginia, Cal, at Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.
That middle run sets up a path to string together wins. The schedule finishes with Stanford, another very winnable game even if the line has tightened up by then.
This season really comes down to a few binary things: how the defensive line performs and the coin‑flip outcomes at FSU and Louisville. If you chalk FSU up as a loss and survive Louisville, the rest of the schedule offers an easy path to nine wins.
I like the over here. The market line at 8.5 wins isn't steep, and I project SMU at about 9.7 wins. Over nine is very much in play if the D‑line is improved and Jennings stays healthy and protected.
Pick: SMU Over 8.5 Wins (-136)
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Lincoln Kienholz, an Ohio State transfer with zero college starts, is Jeff Brohm’s fourth consecutive transfer quarterback and replaces Miller Moss. He’s noticeably more athletic than Jack Plummer, Tyler Shough and Moss, and spring ball made that clear.
Louisville showed designed quarterback runs, draws and speed options it hasn't really used under Brohm before, because the Cardinals finally have a quarterback who can threaten with his legs.
The offense still runs through the backfield. Running backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown return as the focal point, but Brown is coming off a late-season lower-leg injury and is still hurt.
Either way, defenses will have to respect Kienholz’s running ability. That makes his rapport with transfers like Tre Richardson (Vanderbilt) and Lawayne McCoy (FSU) even more important because opponents can stack the box if the passing game isn't up to par.
If defenses can load the box against whatever Louisville runs, the offense becomes a lot easier to contain.
It's also worth noting that Kienholz will make his first start in the season opener against Ole Miss on Labor Day. That’s a scary time to make a first start.
I have Louisville projected for 7.5 wins, well below the market total of 8.5. There are at least six spots that look like toss-ups or potential losses: Ole Miss, SMU, NC State, Florida State, Pitt and Kentucky.
That’s why the under 8.5 is tempting even with the heavy juice. You can ride the straight under, or play it differently — for example, stack Ole Miss and SMU on a parlay and keep the card open until SMU. Both approaches make sense depending on how much you want to risk the juice.
Final note: Louisville doesn’t get faded often with Brohm at the helm, but this scenario leans heavily on two questionable pieces right now — the offensive line and Kienholz’s legs. If either one is shaky early, that under looks even more appealing.
Pick: Louisville Under 8.5 Wins (-158)
Christopher Vizzina walked out of spring as QB1, while highly-touted true freshman Tait Reynolds is QB2.
Sophomore running back Gideon Davidson managed 60 carries last season and not a single touchdown.
Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore lead the wide receiver room. Together, they drew 126 targets and combined for 1,441 yards and eight touchdowns.
On the line, the group returning logged 3,256 snaps (89th in FBS).
That group will be managed by new offensive coordinator Chad Morris, who's back in the college game. Morris is big on sound bites, and some of that personality could have even helped him get this job.
That doesn’t erase the reality that it feels like this program feels like it’s sinking, and there are more questions this season.
Can Vizzina run the kind of smash-mouth spread that Morris likes? Morris’ successful quarterbacks have included guys who can make plays in and out of structure like Tajh Boyd and Deshaun Watson. Reynolds looks capable of that style, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes more his offense at some point.
Davidson is also a head-scratcher. He came in with big expectations, but and he hasn’t delivered. That’s an open question heading into the season.
Dabo Swinney resisted the portal for a while, but now they’re using it because they have to. They’re replacing four offensive line starters, and there are a lot of moving parts.
The defense, meanwhile, looked the part in the spring game.
Coordinator Tom Allen gets four of his top five tacklers back, and safety depth was bolstered with two portal additions in Jerome Carter III from Old Dominion and Corey Myrick from Southern Miss.
I also heard whispers that the defense struggles to execute what Allen wants. I don’t buy that easily, though, because Allen has coached defenses everywhere and has been the reason some programs even had a pulse.
But the concern is worth noting given all the turnover.
The schedule doesn’t do the Tigers any favors. LSU feels like a potential hammering. I expect the number on season wins to tick down after that game.
There are other tricky spots like a game at Cal before Miami, Virginia Tech with James Franklin and Dabo involved (could be a clock-management mess), an FSU team coming off a bye that could surprise and back-to-back travel weeks with Syracuse after.
I’m taking the under here. I project Clemson at 7.0 wins, so I’ll play under 7.5.
Pick: Clemson Under 7.5 Wins (+120)
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Continuity is the story at Pitt.
Mason Heintschel, the true-freshman revelation who took over in Week 6 and finished with 2,354 yards and 16 touchdowns in nine starts, returns as the unquestioned QB1, and OC Kade Bell is back for Year 3 running the same system.
Narduzzi calls Heintschel’s Year 2 progression “critical,” and early returns from spring look clean with zero turnovers in the scrimmage portions.
Eli Holstein and Cole Gonzales transferred out, and Pitt added Texas State transfer Holden Geriner as the backup.
Pitt closed 2025 hot, including a 42-28 win at Georgia Tech. That openly frames 2026 as an ACC title push behind a favorable early slate.
I project 7.9 wins for Pitt, and the market is heavily juiced on the over 7.5. I’m passing on that, as I can’t make the case for the over after what I’ve seen.
Ultimately, I’m not a huge fan of the roster. The secondary is my biggest worry, and I don’t think it gets properly tested until Oct. 2 at Virginia Tech.
Pitt has receivers who can win downfield, and the back half of the schedule is brutal. Miami and FSU both have the kind of receiver groups that could cause real problems.
Throw in a season-ending trip to Cal right after Thanksgiving on back-to-back travel, and that’s another red flag.
I see this ending around seven wins. One of those classic Narduzzi moments, like a 14-point underdog upset or a loss as a 20-point favorite, is bound to happen. That’s just how it goes with him.
I don’t have a firm stance either way on the market, but I’m watching for a couple of offenses early in the year that could get into Pitt's secondary really fast.
Pick: Pass
CJ Bailey is back with the Wolfpack even after losing his top five pass-catchers and Hollywood Smothers, the team’s leading rusher. That makes the offense a bit of a question mark heading into the season.
The offensive line isn’t a complete wild card, though, ranking 58th in returning snaps.
Bailey’s touchdown-to-interception numbers have been solid since he took over, yet the more telling stat is that he has produced 27 big-time throws against 35 turnover-worthy plays through two seasons.
He has had more game-changing mistakes than game-changing plays, so it’ll be interesting to see how he performs starting from scratch with new weapons.
On defense, there’s some continuity. The Pack bring back three of last year’s top-10 tacklers, including cornerback Brian Nelson II (six PBUs) and portal pieces in defensive end Harvey Dyson III from Tulane and linebacker Popo Aguirre from Miami. That should help soften the blow of any offensive growing pains.
It's a little worrisome that head coachDave Doeren has struggled a bit against nonconference opponents over the last three seasons (3-11 ATS). That’s worth remembering when sizing up expectations and lines.
As for the slate itself, this is as friendly a schedule as possible. NC State avoids Miami, SMU and Clemson, and it has a stretch with six of its seven games coming at home from Sept. 26-Nov. 14.
The opener at Virginia feels huge if the Pack want to dream about an ACC run.
I have NC State at about 7.9 wins. For an over ticket, you can only afford four losses, and I see potential defeats against Virginia, Vanderbilt, Louisville and Florida State.
A potential fifth loss to bust the over is the sticking point that makes me skeptical of its long-shot ACC title odds. It’s a schedule that encourages optimism, but it needs a few more answers on offense before buying into something loftier.
Pick: Pass
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Fresh off an ACC Championship appearance, Tony Elliott walks into 2026 with a clear rebuild at quarterback, and Missouri transfer Beau Pribula is expected to lead the way.
Pribula threw for nearly 2,000 yards last season, but he brings a high turnover-worthy play rate that's approaching 4%. That’s ugly even in a crowded pocket.
Pitt transfer Eli Holstein is an interesting competition piece on the roster, owning a 29:13 touchdown-to-interception ratio for his career. The problem is Holstein has produced just 19 big-time throws against 31 turnover-worthy plays.
The receiving room and backfield take hits as well.
The top four receivers and top three rushers from 2025 are gone, leaving Virginia with one of the lowest offensive TARP rankings in the ACC.
The staff added Da’Shawn Martin from Kent State and Rico Flores Jr. from UCLA to help upgrade the receiver room, but that’s just a patch job.
The offensive line ranks 120th nationally in returning snaps, which isn't exactly comforting for a team trying to replace playmakers.
The defense, though, is why Virginia finished 2025 with momentum. The Hoos return five of their top seven tacklers from an aggressive, Havoc-minded unit.
The Cavaliers finished top-25 in Quality Drives allowed, Finishing Drives allowed, Havoc, coverage and passing down Success Rate allowed.
Defensive coordinator John Rudzinski got that group to a No. 2 finish nationally on third downs. If the stop unit is anywhere close to last year, it'll keep Virginia in a lot of games.
I’m sitting at 7.2 wins for Virginia. You can get under 7.5 with some decent plus-money, and there are scheduling quirks that help with no Miami or Clemson on the slate. However, there’s a brutal trip to Dallas with SMU coming off a bye, which complicates things.
A big reason to be skeptical is simply randomness. Last season, Virginia got ridiculous bounces. It beat Louisville, Washington State and North Carolina in a three-game stretch by a combined six points.
The Hoos also fumbled 15 times, but opponents recovered only four. They can’t rely on that level of luck again.
The offense also settled for too many field goals, ranking 82nd in Finishing Drives. And yet, Elliott walked away with ACC Coach of the Year honors based largely on wins.
The voodoo factor exists. But heading into the season, Virginia’s identity looks like defense-first with question marks at QB, receiver depth and offensive line play. That’s enough for me to be cautious.
Pick: Pass
James Franklin comes to Blacksburg as Virginia Tech’s new head coach after getting fired midseason at Penn State, and he’s already promising the Hokies will shock the world.
Interestingly enough, predecessor Brent Pry is back as defensive coordinator, with Ty Howle tabbed as offensive coordinator. Franklin also poached quarterbacks coach Danny O’Brien out of Happy Valley.
The QB picture is crowded but clear. Penn State transfer Ethan Grunkemeyer is the presumed starter, and he'll be pushed by UNC transfer Bryce Baker, Kelden Ryan and Troy Huhn behind them. Franklin calls the race “fluid.”
A.J. Brand was moved to receiver to open up more reps at quarterback.
The recruiting jolt is real. Franklin assembled a top-25 2026 class in a matter of weeks, and that 2027 haul is hovering around No. 6 nationally. Combine that with the portal work he did to rebuild a roster, and there's a program reset happening fast.
Offensive line stability helps. Virginia Tech returns 4,535 snaps, which ranks 28th in the FBS. That top-30 returning line gives the new staff a legitimate floor.
That said, watch the right guard spot, because Johnny Garrett is dealing with a long-term injury, so depth there will matter.
Franklin’s history suggests improvement over time. He had six wins in his first year at Vanderbilt before going up to nine the next year. At Penn State, he went 7 wins, 7 wins, then 11 wins and 11 wins.
He’s an emotional coach who might be carrying a chip after how things ended at Penn State, and that energy should accelerate the rebuild.
This is at least a bowl team, but I’m projecting around seven wins. The market is juiced on the over 6.5, and I’d pass on that price. There’s one game on the schedule I’m interested in: Sept. 19 at Maryland.
Franklin owns Mike Locksley’s Maryland teams. From 2022-24, Penn State outscored Maryland, 125-22, including a 30-0 blanking.
Rosters change, but the matchup history is lopsided enough that Virginia Tech vs. Maryland feels tilted toward Franklin’s side right now.
Pick: Pass
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Head coachMike Norvell named Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels the starting quarterback over redshirt freshman Kevin Sperry, and that’s the news that shapes everything else for this team.
Daniels finished the season for Auburn, starting the final three games in 2025, and his tape is a real mixed bag with 30 big-time throws to 41 turnover-worthy plays, plus 17 fumbles in his college career, including his time at Stanford.
That’s the kind of volatility that can swing a season either way.
Offensively, the plan is continuity. Tim Harris Jr. will run the offense after serving as the passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach last season, keeping it uptempo and run-heavy like Gus Malzahn.
The skill group has some clear positives. Quintrevion Wisner arrives from Texas after a 1,000-yard season in 2024, and Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy return as the top two targets.
Robinson, in particular, profiles well from the slot, racking up roughly three yards per route run in that role.
The line isn’t a mystery either, returning 4,429 snaps to rank 36th in the FBS. That’s a meaningful amount of experience up front.
There’s some stability on defense, but there are also holes. Four of the top nine tacklers are back, and the portal added linebacker Chris Jones from Southern Miss and cornerback Nehemiah Chandler from South Alabama.
Edge Deamontae Diggs is back from an injury year after logging 24 pressures for Coastal Carolina in 2024, so there’s some pass-rush juice.
That said, the portal brings questions as much as answers. You can pour thousands of snaps into a roster, but what matters is the quality of those snaps and the level of competition they came against.
Southern Miss, South Alabama and Coastal Carolina are solid programs, but they’re not the same as bringing in SEC-tested starters. That’s where I pull back on some of the optimism.
I don’t have doubts about Robinson or Danzy as targets, but Daniels’ turnover profile makes me uneasy. I’m not sure what the QB competition looked like, but naming him the starter over Sperry right away could raise some eyebrows.
I don’t love my projection of 8.4 wins, but I’m on the over 6.5 at +144.
There are about five clear wins on the schedule and five games that feel like coin-flips. The road trip to Boston College should be one of the easier ones. If they can’t win that, Norvell’s job status deserves a serious re-examination.
This roster has upside, but there are also some red flags. If Daniels keeps the ball secure and Wisner stays healthy and productive, the over is reasonable. If turnover-worthy plays persist, the season slides toward mediocrity.
Pick: Florida State Over 6.5 Wins (+154)
Coaching turnover did one big thing for Cal this offseason; it kept Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele in Berkeley. New head coach Tosh Lupoi’s biggest early win was convincing the true freshman not to hit the portal.
Jordan Somerville is the new offensive coordinator, and he’s moving the offense toward a more NFL-style look, shifting protections and tempo control.
Nick Rolovich stays on as quarterbacks coach to preserve some continuity around the young passer.
Cal went 7-6, played spoiler by knocking SMU out of the ACC title picture, lost a chunk of talent to the portal, but also scooped up one of the ACC’s stronger transfer classes.
The Golden Bears rank 20th in FBS in returning offensive line snaps. That top-20 protection is huge for JKS, which matters a lot when asking a young quarterback to learn a new scheme on the fly.
How this team wins will be matchup-driven.
Cal’s defense is thin up front, so you avoid teams that can run at will. The best path to victories is getting after opposing secondaries with the receiving corps and JKS’s arm.
There are a lot of one-score games on the slate, as I have nine games projected within a touchdown.
Winnable matchups, from a schematic standpoint, include Syracuse, Virginia Tech, NC State and Pitt. Those feel like coin-flip tilts you can lean toward because of how Cal’s strengths line up with opponents’ weaknesses.
The overall sentiment around Cal feels mixed. There’s some negativity and some optimism, but I’m not as down on the program as some.
My main worry is the schematic shift. Moving away from the veer-and-shoot Rolovich ran toward an NFL-style scheme is the right move for JKS’s long-term development, but it’s a learning curve.
If the offense clicks early, Cal can win a handful and make noise. If it takes time, those close games will slip away.
Pick: Pass
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Brent Key kept his job and then went to work. After a 9-4 season that began 8-0 — the program’s best start since 1966 before a late collapse — Key signed a new five-year deal and immediately overhauled the staff and roster.
He hired offensive coordinator George Godsey, a former Ravens tight ends coach, and installed a pro-style system. Jason Semore will be the new defensive coordinator.
Key also reshaped the roster with about 20 transfers, including Michigan running back transfer Justice Haynes, who specifically cited Godsey’s pro-style pedigree, and nine linemen.
The quarterback room got a big shakeup too. Haynes King is gone, leaving Indiana transfer Alberto Mendoza — brother of reigning Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza — as the starter.
However, no signal-caller currently on the roster has ever started a college game.
All of that turnover makes the start of the season tricky.
The Yellow Jackets open against Colorado’s fast, high-motion Go-Go offense, which leans heavily on 22 personnel and CFL-style shifts. That’s a rough first test when trying to install a new defense, personnel groupings and blitz packages.
Week 2 doesn’t get much easier, as Tennessee comes to town.
Mercer is the cup-of-coffee tune-up that can get this team back on track. I wouldn’t be shocked if the first two games end up as losses. The market line at 6.5 feels like a lot given the amount of change.
I had faith in former offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner as a coach, which makes the drop-off to a first-time OC hire a real concern.
Haynes is a solid back, but he’s not the same kind of elusive, yards-after-contact runner that Jamal Haynes was over the past few seasons.
There are a lot of close spots on the schedule, as Colorado, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Louisville and Clemson are all projected within five points. When so many games are tight, you need an edge to get to the under. This offseason churn might be that edge.
Pick: Pass (Lean Over 6.5 Wins)
Wake Forest enters Year 2 under Jake Dickert coming off a 9-4 debut and a Duke's Mayo Bowl win over Mississippi State, but this offseason felt like patchwork until the quarterback picture finally settled.
After a season of churn that ended with Robbie Ashford running out of eligibility and Deshawn Purdie leaving for Liberty, UNC transfer Gio Lopez has emerged as the clear QB1.
Dickert has been unapologetically bullish on Lopez. He has leaned into the storyline of a player with a “chip on his shoulder” after a rough stint in Chapel Hill and has repeatedly said the staff has full faith in their new lefty.
That confidence isn’t just preaching; it’s tactical. Dickert promised Wake will be “more vertical” in the passing game in 2026, a deliberate shift after last year’s QB instability capped the offense.
There’s reason for optimism and for caution. The backfield loses star running back Demond Claiborne to the NFL, but the room isn’t empty. Ty Clark III and Jamar Searcy return, and Florida transfer KD Daniels arrives to a group Dickert calls “ultra-competitive.”
The wide receiver room, though, is explicitly a rebuild project.
Where the concern is loudest is in the trenches. Wake returns 3,001 offensive line snaps to rank 98th in FBS, and the staff lost a fair amount of experience overall. That’s a rebuild on both sides of the ball up front, and it matters.
I ran my projections and they peg Wake’s expected win total at roughly 5.7. You could argue for a wager of over 5.5, but not when your trenches are being overhauled.
The schedule doesn’t do Wake any favors. Early games against Akron and Purdue are winnable but aren’t guaranteed. There’s a real path for Wake to be 0-4 heading into Stanford if a few things don’t click.
There's a lot of turnover up front, but if Lopez is the player Dickert expects, Wake can exceed its win total. If not, this could be a long season.
Pick: Pass
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Duke’s offseason imploded on the day of the portal deadline.
Darian Mensah bolted for Miami, and Duke immediately sued over his NIL deal. A judge denied the school’s emergency restraining order and recused himself because he’s a Duke hoops season-ticket holder, but arbitration is still ongoing.
Backup quarterback Henry Belin IV also left for Missouri State.
Stepping into the breach is San Jose State transfer Walker Eget, who threw for 3,051 yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season.
The troubling part is that Eget played the back half of 2025 on a torn ACL and didn’t take part in Duke’s spring practice. His health timeline is the preseason’s biggest watch item.
On paper, Manny Diaz’s team isn’t some rebuilding project after winning the ACC Championship a season ago. But in one chaotic offseason, it went from having arguably the conference’s best QB situation to one of the most fragile.
On top of that, Mensah's top target, Cooper Barkate, left for Miami with his quarterback.
There’s at least one real safety net: experience up front. Duke returns 4,516 offensive line snaps, ranking 31st in FBS, which is a legitimately seasoned unit that should help whoever’s under center.
Poke around the schedule, and the win total starts to look interesting. I’m at 5.4, and I can see why the under feels tempting, but there are clear spots that could push this team over.
North Carolina and Boston College come to Durham on back-to-back travel.
Some opponents are in transition, too. Tulane is rebuilding under Will Hall and could be a winnable game, Illinois has been adding JUCO pieces in the trenches, and William & Mary is on the slate.
If things go right for the Blue Devils, they'll only need two wins in their final eight to clear that total. There are real paths to the over.
That said, Duke is still pretty concerning overall. Between an experienced line and a schedule with vulnerable spots, this season could swing either way. The X-factor remains Eget’s knee.
Pick: Duke Over 5.5 Wins (Lean · -146)
Everything for Syracuse hinges on quarterback Steve Angeli’s Achilles. He was leading the nation in passing when he tore it at Clemson on Sept. 20 before Syracuse spiraled and lost its final eight games.
Head coach Fran Brown says the job is Angeli’s. He has been limited to non-contact work in the spring, but he's expected to be ready for the season opener against New Hampshire.
Brown has tried to shore up the room after getting caught last year. Kennesaw State transfer Amari Odom headlines the portal additions in the quarterback room.
The supporting cast is young. Left tackle Trevion Mack is the only major returning offensive line starter.
Angeli did gain a major target in 6-foot-5 freshman wide receiver Calvin Russell III, who possesses elite athleticism and enters the season as a potential breakout name.
Defensively, Syracuse gave up 35 points per game last year. I’m not sold that the defensive line or secondary suddenly fix themselves. I don't mind defensive coordinator Vince Kehres, but the Orange don’t have many proven players right now.
Brown has also been tight-lipped about injuries. He showed up in camp saying Angeli is fully back to health after the Achilles injury, but he declined to go into detail when asked about other injuries. I understand wanting to hold your cards, but we don’t know if anyone else is banged up or if they’ve lost key pieces.
The Orange also draw one of the tougher ACC slates. New Hampshire, Cal, UConn, North Carolina and Boston College could all be wins, but three of those games come on the road. Lose one of them, and the season gets ugly fast.
Pick: Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (-115)
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The first year of the Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill did not go well. The Tar Heels finished 4-8, and the offseason already saw some blunt adjustments.
Offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens is out, allowing Bobby Petrino to come in to run the offense.
The quarterback room is unsettled, but Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards Jr. will likely be the starter, with Texas A&M transfer Miles O’Neill serving as the backup.
The core issue is the offensive line, which ranks 135th nationally in returning snaps. Petrino’s schemes work only if his team can run the ball and buy time for the outside routes. He can’t paper over a shaky line.
Running back Demon June returns as a sophomore after averaging 4.3 yards after first contact, but he had only two touchdowns and 464 total yards last year. The yards-after-contact mark is a fine indicator, but it doesn't mean much if the line can’t create holes.
Leading receiver Jordan Shipp returns after posting 1.8 yards per route run. He’s a piece you can build around, but Petrino’s offense leans on getting to the outside and into rhythm, which again comes back to protecting the quarterback.
Defensively, there aren't any major changes. The unit finished top-40 in pass rush and middle of the FBS in Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed last year.
The top three tacklers are gone, but edge rusher Melkart Abou‑Jaoude returns with 10.5 sacks. Keeping that pressure piece matters a lot for masking depth losses elsewhere.
It's worth noting that defensive coordinator Steve Belichick is on an indefinite medical leave.
What he did at Washington was immediate, as he turned the Huskies into the No. 1 team in Finishing Drives allowed and got the Tar Heels into the top 40 last season. His return is worth monitoring.
Schedule-wise, travel is a real factor. The Tar Heels open the season against TCU in Dublin, and they have to travel to Clemson, Pitt, Duke, UConn and Virginia. They also play both Miami and Louisville before ending the season with a rivalry game against NC State.
ETSU isn't a freebie under Will Healy in a game I project within two touchdowns.
I project 3.5 wins for the Heels. With the offensive line questions and an unsettled QB room, it’s not a stretch to argue the floor is very low.
The defense is stable enough to keep games competitive, but the offense’s ceiling is tied to a run game and protection group that I simply don’t have confidence in yet.
Pick: North Carolina Under 4.5 Wins (-105)
Tavita Pritchard comes in as the new head coach after serving as GM Andrew Luck's backup and coaching on staff for more than a decade with a stint as the Washington Commanders’ quarterbacks coach.
He’s installing a very pro-style, physical offense with smash-mouth runs, multiple tight ends and an emphasis on elite offensive line blocking.
That O-line will be led by Harvard transfer center Aidan Kilstrom. The unit returns 3,816 snaps, which ranks 65th in FBS. The plan is to lean into power football and let the line set the tone.
Michigan transfer Davis Warren was recently named the starting quarterback over freshman Mike Mitchell Jr. Warren last took the field for the Wolverines in 2024 and finished the season with a 7:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The top three receivers from last year are gone, so there won’t be much continuity in the passing game.
On the ground, Micah Ford returns after a 643-yard season with 3.9 yards after first contact. That's enough to build around if the line and scheme hold up.
On defense, former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard is bringing a “Legion of Boom” flavor with long cornerbacks who press at the line and linebackers who can slide into coverage in Cover 3.
That blueprint demands physical corners and quick, versatile linebackers. I like the linebackers on this roster, but the secondary is a bit worrisome.
The scheduling quirks are notable. Playing Hawaii in Week 0 gives the Cardinal two bye weeks and a bit more time at home. They will have East Coast trips to Duke, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, along with a trip to Notre Dame.
The vision is deliberate and old-school in a way that makes sense on paper. It’s just happening very slowly. Right now, I can’t find a way to back this team outright.
If I’m taking anything, it’s the under on Stanford, because it's the kind of team that can win a couple games early and then leave you sweating the rest of the season wondering where the regression hits.
Pick: Pass
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There’s a lot to worry about with Boston College this year.
Bill O’Brien will call the plays after offensive coordinator Will Lawing departed for the NFL. The offense is expected to run an NFL pro-style approach that's heavy on 12 personnel with a power rushing attack on standard downs.
That’s a clear identity, but the Eagles didn’t exactly restock experience at the skill positions.
The portal additions include running back Evan Dickens (Liberty), running back Nolan Ray (Maryland), WR Javarius Green (UNC) and wide receiver Landon Wright (Washington State).
They should help, but they don’t erase the depletion of tested bodies in the backfield and receiver room.
The line isn’t a complete unknown, ranking 84th nationally in returning offensive line snaps. That’s enough to build around but not the kind of experienced foundation that makes you comfortable against top front sevens.
On defense, Ted Roof comes in as coordinator in his 15th stop as a DC since 1995.
Expect a blitz-heavy look across multiple fronts with an emphasis on a “jack” linebacker — an edge player who can rush and drop into coverage.
Roof will hunt turnovers with extreme pressure packages.
The worry is personnel. I didn’t see anybody clearly identified as that jack, and the defensive line might be the worst in the conference if talent doesn’t emerge. That could make those pressure concepts harder to execute without getting gashed up front.
Schedule-wise, BC’s most winnable games come at home against Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt and Virginia Tech. That’s a real advantage because both Virginia Tech and Syracuse hit Chestnut Hill after back-to-back road games.
Still, BC isn’t a heavy favorite often. Realistically, the Eagles are a clear favorite against Maine and a pick’em or slight favorites in others.
The offense has a defined identity under O’Brien but lacks established skill-position experience. The defense will be aggressive under Roof but needs the right personnel and could be exposed up front.
Given all that, I lean under on the win total.
Pick: Boston College Under 3.5 Wins (Lean · -125)
