2019 College Football Rankings: Comparing the AP Top 25 Poll to Our Betting Power Ratings

Aug 19, 2019 06:43 PM EDT
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Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Moorhead

College football’s offseason has reached one of its final benchmarks — the AP Poll.

The AP Top 25 dropped Monday afternoon, five days ahead of Week 0 games between Miami-Florida and Hawaii-Arizona.

Like we did last season, we’ll be comparing the AP Poll to our college football power ratings to see how the betting market differs from conventional ranking systems.

EDGE subscribers can get full access to Collin Wilson’s power ratings here, including numerical values used to create point spreads between any two teams in the country.

2019 AP Poll vs. College Football Power Ratings

Biggest Differences Between the AP Poll and Our Power Ratings

Mississippi State

  • AP Poll: Not ranked
  • Power Ratings: 11

The Bulldogs had pretty high expectations by their standards last season after hiring an offensive mastermind and returning an all-world defense.

But it wasn’t to be, as MSU scored a combined 16 points against Alabama, Kentucky, Florida and LSU, four of the better defenses in the conference.

This year, Cowbell brings in Penn State transfer Tommy Stevens at quarterback, and improvements will be needed to live up to our preseason power rating of No. 11.

UCF

  • AP Poll: 17
  • Power Ratings: 57

Central Florida is down to just Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush at quarterback thanks to injuries. Is this the year the magic ends?

The Knights have gone 25-1 over the past two seasons, but our power ratings are much lower on them at No. 57 than the AP Poll, which has UCF at No. 17.

Florida State

  • AP Poll: Not ranked
  • Power Ratings: 23

Thanks in part to the existing talent on the roster and the hiring of Kendal Briles as offensive coordinator, the Seminoles cracked our top 25.

Florida State did not receive any votes in the AP Poll, while teams like UAB, Army, Appalachian State, Minnesota and Arizona State did.

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