The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Missouri, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Missouri prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Alabama vs Missouri Prediction
Alabama vs. Missouri Pick: Missouri +3 or Better
My Missouri vs. Alabama best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama vs Missouri Odds, Spread
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
- Alabama vs Missouri Point Spread: Alabama -3
- Alabama vs Missouri Total: 51.5 Points
- Alabama vs Missouri ML: Alabama -170, Missouri +145
Alabama vs Missouri College Football Betting Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Ground Game Growing
The return of Jam Miller in the Alabama backfield did not produce an uptick against Georgia, but the Crimson Tide's victory over Vanderbilt included plenty of rushing success.
Miller averaged more than six yards per carry on 22 totes, giving the offense a 62% Success Rate on the ground.
While Alabama still sits outside the top 100 in rush efficiency, the Crimson Tide created three methodical drives and two explosive drives against the Commodores.
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack continued to field a struggling defense, generating a pass rush and rush explosiveness allowed ranking outside of the top 100.
Vanderbilt averaged 8.1 yards per carry using predominantly man and power blocking concepts, including a 65-yard explosive by Sedrick Alexander.
Inside zone and man rush concepts have been the Achilles heel for the Crimson Tide defense.
Although Alabama has been elite in preventing drives from ending in a score, the limited red-zone data includes nine opponent attempts with six touchdowns and no field goals.
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview: Hardy Running the Show
Missouri doesn't have a schedule strength in the top 100 so far this season. Its Week 4 victory over South Carolina was the only game to fall within single digits, and it ended with a 91% post-game win expectancy.
The addition of Ahmad Hardy from UL Monroe has elevated the Tigers' rushing attack, which calls zone read on nearly 50% of attempts.
While man blocking concepts have not generated explosives, the scheme has produced a high 72% Success Rate on 60 carries.
Hardy has forced 46 missed tackles in 104 rushing attempts, ranking him as the highest-graded running back in elusiveness, per PFF.
While Hardy powers the offense on the ground and quarterback Beau Pribula runs it through the air, there's reason to inspect the nickel defense.
Missouri sits outside the top 50 in coverage grading and in the bottom 20 of all teams in Finishing Drives allowed. The sample size is limited, as 12 opponent possessions to reach scoring position have produced an average of 4.5 points.
Alabama vs Missouri Pick, Betting Analysis
There's a stark contrast in strength of schedule between these two teams, but a question remains: Will the Alabama defense be able to tackle Hardy?
The Crimson Tide have been successful against most run concepts with the exception of inside zone, a concept in the Tigers' arsenal that they've run at the second-highest rate.
Alabama ranks 78th in Defensive Stuff Rate, so the expectation is that Hardy will bust through the line of scrimmage.
However, Hardy isn't expected to create nearly as many missed tackles, as the Crimson Tide defense committed just 13 combined against Vanderbilt and Georgia.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has been near immaculate this season, posting an adjusted completion percentage of 81% with 13 touchdowns. In 111 completions on 158 attempts, 10 of the misfires have come from drops.
Missouri will show primarily Cover 3, a secondary tendency that Simpson has dominated this season. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels posted six explosives through the air against the Tigers defense, along with a passing downs Success Rate 10% higher than the national average.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings favor Alabama by a single point, giving Missouri the edge in the market.
The Tigers have two major factors working in the favor: Alabama's inability to stop inside zone and the situational spot.
The Crimson Tide are coming off two physical games against Vanderbilt and Georgia, while Missouri has had two weeks to prepare after facing UMass for homecoming weekend on Sept. 27.
Alabama was in this exact scenario last season, a small non-cover win over South Carolina after facing Georgia and Vanderbilt.
Pick: Missouri +3 or Better
