The Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho, on Saturday, Sept. 27. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Boise State is favored by -16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. Appalachian State, meanwhile, enters as a +16.5 underdog and sits at +550 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under comes in at 60.5 points.
Here’s my App State vs. Boise State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
App State vs Boise State Prediction
- App State vs. Boise State Pick: Boise State -16.5
My Boise State vs. App State best bet is on the Broncos to cover the spread as a big home favorite. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
App State vs Boise State Odds
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
- App State vs Boise State Spread: Boise State -16.5, App State +16.5
- App State vs Boise State Over/Under: 60.5 Points
- App State vs Boise State Moneyline: App State +550, Boise State -800
App State vs Boise State College Football Betting Preview
Saturday's Appalachian State vs. Boise State game fits a historically profitable betting system from out Bet Labs database.
Called "The Right Favorite," this college football system is built on recognizing when the betting market underestimates a favorite.
In the regular season, when an opponent is coming off a loss by 7-23 points, perception often inflates their chances of rebounding, yet those weaknesses typically carry into the next game.
By focusing on contests where the total sits at least at 55, the system narrows in on games expected to have higher scoring, which makes it more difficult for struggling teams to keep pace.
Limiting the sample to the first 11 games ensures the analysis applies before postseason adjustments in motivation and preparation occur.
Finally, the spread filter targets situations where the line is set with the other side catching points — but not in extreme ranges — allowing favorites to deliver consistent covers.
Together, these conditions create a profile where the favorite is positioned as the stronger play despite public bias suggesting otherwise.
This system boasts an all-time record of 647-477-22, good for a 57.6% win rate and an ROI of 11.4%.
App State vs Boise State Pick, Betting Analysis
App State is coming off a 38-22 loss to Southern Miss, which may lead some to believe the Mountaineers are due to bounce back. However, Boise State has simply been the better team.
In their two games since losing to USF to open the season, the Broncos have put up 100 points and have outscored their opponents by 49.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen has taken care of the ball with five touchdowns and one interception on the season, while three running backs — Dylan Riley, Sire Gaines, and Malik Sherrod — have run for at least 140 yards apiece.
They should have a field day against an App State defense that ranks 100th nationally in explosiveness allowed.
Given the system at Lpay and the matchup on the field, we'll roll with the Broncos to cover the double-digit spread on the Smurf Turf.
Pick: Boise State -16.5
