College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for Army vs. ULM

Army opens the season on the road against Terry Bowden’s ULM Warhawks in a rematch of a game the Black Knights won 48-24 last fall.

Army rode its flexbone triple option rushing attack to devastating success in that game, but Jeff Monken has abandoned that scheme and brought in offensive coordinator Drew Thatcher from Division-II Nebraska-Kearney to run a funky shotgun-based attack. 

How much success will his team have with its new-look playbook? Will ULM be able to keep pace with its own offense against an Army defense that slumped to start 2022 but played like a top-40 unit to close the season?

Perhaps the new-look Army offense will explode out of the gate, but some growing pains seem likely. Quarterback Bryson Daily, who has just one pass attempt to his name, will be piloting this whole revamp.

Jakobi Buchanan is the leading returning rusher. He played fullback in the flexbone and will operate at tailback in this new shotgun scheme.

While Monken’s gambit might pay off down the line, it’s hard to imagine a cohesive offensive output from this Army attack considering the schematic totality of their rebuild and the patchwork nature of its skill position players right now. 

The defense, however, will be stout. After an injury-riddled first half of the season, the Black Knights stiffened up as the weather changed. During their Week 8 bye, they ranked 118th in defensive SP+. That number surged 70 spots down the stretch and they finished 44th in the country.

End Andre Carter II and safety Marquel Broughton are gone, but coordinator Nate Woody returns almost everyone else, including 2022 breakout stars linebacker Leo Lowin and defensive back Quindrelin Hammonds.

This unit will again be strong this season.

It’s been a tough few years in Monroe for Bowden. While his program has occasionally scored an upset win (like last season against rival Louisiana), the team has been on the losing side of the ledger more often than not. 

Last year’s team finished 117th in SP+ (88th on offense and 121st on defense). That climb on offense was nice, but unlikely to be matched after a tough offseason.

The roster was hit hard by the transfer portal, especially on offense. A wave of important playmakers left, including quarterback Chandler Rogers. Four linemen, two on each side of the ball, are now enrolled at Power 5 schools, and star defensive back/linebacker Quae Drake was making plays for Jacksonville State in Week 0. 

The offensive depth chart is particularly murky. Jiya Wright is the starter at quarterback. He originally enrolled at Northern Illinois before transferring to Division II Florida Tech, which folded its program. After a year at JUCO Fort Scott, he arrived in Monroe and has spent two seasons as an understudy.

Six years after graduating high school, Wright is taking over as an FBS starter for the first time.

Like Wright, the majority of his offensive running mates have rarely seen the field at the FBS level. Wide receiver Tyrone Howell is a star, at least, and will be Wright’s most dependable target.

Both teams will struggle on offense in this game — ULM thanks to a dearth of talent, and because it has to face a quality Army defense.

Army’s offensive revamp could work out in the end, but there are plenty of kinks to iron out to begin the season. It’s hard to overstate how new this playbook will be for players who've known only one style of football for their entire collegiate careers.

Army’s uncertainty at tailback will also be a factor as the team feels its way out to start the year.

In what promises to be a slow and glitchy affair, I’ll take the under at 47.5, and I would play it down to 45.