College Football Thursday Odds & Pick for Ball State vs. San Jose State: Arizona Bowl Projections Reveal Betting Edge (Dec. 31)

College Football Thursday Odds & Pick for Ball State vs. San Jose State: Arizona Bowl Projections Reveal Betting Edge (Dec. 31) article feature image
Credit:

Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Ball State quarterback Drew Plitt.

  • Our Arizona Bowl PRO projection for Thursday's showdown is almost six points off the current spread.
  • We have focused in on Ball State as the underdog side offering significant value below.

Ball State vs. San Jose State Odds

Ball State Odds +9.5
San Jose State Odds -9.5
Over/Under 64
PRO Projection SJSU -3.8 | 62.6
Time 2 p.m. ET
TV CBSSN
Try PRO for FREE to unlock projections for every bowl game.

An unexpected 7-0 campaign has landed San Jose State its first conference championship since 1991, the No. 22 CFP ranking and a spot in this afternoon’s Arizona Bowl. It’s also given the Spartans a 9.5-point edge in the betting market over Ball State.

But is that spread accurate? Long story short, the answer is no (according to our projections). In fact, this is the last remaining bowl game as of writing with an A+ projection edge grade.

Note: Odds, data as of 9:45 a.m. ET.

Projection grades for EVERY bowl game…

Ole Miss vs. Indiana: A

Ohio State vs. Clemson: A-

Notre Dame vs. Alabama: B-

Ball State vs. San Jose State Pick

Perhaps inflated by its unblemished record, San Jose State is being given a lot more credit by the betting market than our model.

While still favoring the Spartans, our model grants them just a 3.8-point advantage, creating a valuable betting opportunity on the other side.

Of course, a nearly six-point difference between a projection and listed spread is noteworthy in itself, but making this one even more valuable is that it passes through the key numbers +4, +6 and most importantly, +7 — all relatively common final-score margins.

PRO Projection edge: Ball State +9.5

Projection grades for EVERY bowl game…

Ole Miss vs. Indiana: A

Ohio State vs. Clemson: A-

Notre Dame vs. Alabama: B-

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