The Boise State Broncos face off against the Air Force Falcons at the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Boise State is favored by 11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -370. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Boise State vs. Air Force prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
Boise State vs Air Force Prediction
- Boise State vs. Air Force Pick: Over 51.5 (-110, bet365 | Play to 52.5)
My Air Force vs. Boise State best bet is on the Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Boise State vs Air Force Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
- Boise State vs Air Force point spread: Boise State -11
- Boise State vs Air Force over/under: 51.5 points
- Boise State vs Air Force moneyline: Boise State -370, Air Force +300
Boise State vs Air Force Preview
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
The Broncos are coming off a bye week. They were embarrassed by USF in their opening matchup, exposing some holes that could be an issue.
The Air Force runs a service academy offense, which might cause issues for the Broncos' defense. In their matchup against the Bulls, the Broncos allowed 144 rushing yards at roughly six yards per carry.
What works in Boise’s favor is that it has seen the Falcons numerous times over the years and had an extra week to prepare for the matchup. The Broncos appeared to have cleaned up the run defense against Eastern Washington, but this will be a test against a rush-heavy FBS foe.
What I love about the Broncos' matchup is that their offense should shred against an Air Force defense that has been horrific thus far.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen is not as good as advertised, as was on display in the CFP and against USF earlier in the year, but the ground attack should thrive.
Running back Sirre Gaines is a phenomenal back, averaging over six yards per carry. The Falcons have been pathetic against the run and allowed many explosives, so we could see a big night out of the Broncos' tailback.
Even if Madsen is competent, the Broncos should have no issues scoring their fair share against the Falcons. I am concerned about the defense, but the familiarity and extra preparation should do them wonders in a decent spot off a bye.
Air Force Falcons Betting Preview
Utah State gashed Air Force last week, dropping 49 points on the Falcons.
The Falcons rank outside the top 110 nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, EPA per Dropback allowed, and Early Downs EPA per Play allowed. That is extremely concerning heading into this matchup, as the Broncos may have their way all evening long.
This is not a typical situation where a service academy offense has a considerable edge over its opponent due to unfamiliarity with the opponent's defense. These teams play in the same conference, and I already alluded to the fact that the Broncos have an extra week to prepare coming off a bye.
It's not an excellent spot for the Falcons, and I am deeply concerned about their defense.
However, their offense should fight against a Broncos unit that showed vulnerability against the Bulls.
The Falcons rank 18th nationally in EPA per Rush, and the Broncos rank sub-100th in EPA per Rush allowed. Given how bad their defense has been, I would expect the Falcons to try to chew the clock as much as possible.
Their offensive line has been excellent, and the Falcons rank in the top quarter of the country in Line Yards, Stuff Rate, and Available Yards.
We could see the Falcons contribute their fair share of points, but I am concerned about the defense.
Boise State vs Air Force Pick, Betting Analysis
I rarely target a service academy offense, but I like this spot.
The Broncos are coming off a bye, and their offense should come out firing against an inept Air Force defense.
I also love what I've seen from the Air Force offense thus far, and the offensive line should be able to create a consistent push against the Broncos' front.
A lot of sharp money has come in on the Over, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the number steam higher before kickoff.
Pick: Over 51.5 (-110, bet365 | Play to 52.5)
