Boise State vs. Wyoming Odds & Picks: Saturday’s Betting Value Lies With Cowboys
Boise State vs. Buffalo
- Boise State returns to action Saturday after having its last two games canceled due to COVID-19 issues.
- Wyoming’s rushing attack, led by Xazavian Valladay and Trey Smith, should give the Broncos’ subpar rush defense issues.
- BJ Cunningham sees value in the home-underdog Cowboys and explains why he’s backing them.
Boise State vs. Wyoming Odds
|Boise State Odds||-12.5 [BET NOW]|
|Wyoming Odds||+12.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-435 / +325 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||48.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||6 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS Sports Network|
After having games against San Jose State and UNLV canceled due to COVID-19, Boise State is back in action this week against Wyoming.
Boise State’s season has been filled with ups, downs and weird box scores. The Broncos blew out Colorado State by 31 points despite getting outgained in the game.
They were covering for most of the game against Hawaii the last time they were in action before giving up 15 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. A win on Saturday would secure a spot in the Mountain West title game.
For Wyoming, it hit a low point in its season last weekend, losing outright to New Mexico. Like many teams around the country, the Cowboys have had multiple games canceled due to COVID-19, and Saturday will be only their second home game of the season.
Wyoming has only beaten Boise State once in its last 14 tries, so it may be tough sledding for the Cowboys at home.
Boise State Broncos
Despite their 5-1 record, the Broncos have had an up-and-down season. They’ve looked really dominant at times and average at others.
Boise State’s offense, however, has been stellar behind sophomore quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and has four touchdowns in his three starts on the season. The Broncos have scored 40+ points in all three of those games.
Bachmeier is in a perfect situation to succeed, with all of his targets and top three running backs returning from last year. Junior wide receiver Khalil Shakir has been a matchup nightmare for opposing secondaries, and he already has 38 catches and six touchdowns this season.
The Broncos’ running game has struggled at times this season because of the offensive line, where they had to replace four starters. However, that shouldn’t be an issue against Wyoming’s run defense.
Boise State has struggled on defense, mainly because it has given up way too many explosive plays. The Broncos are 116th in explosiveness allowed and 121st in explosive passing allowed this season, per College Football Data. That could give UNLV the chance to break off some big gains.
The weakness of this Boise State defense can be found against the run. The Broncos are allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt and are 106th in the country in rushing explosiveness allowed. That may be a problem against Wyoming’s rushing attack, which ranks in the top 40 in Rushing Success and explosiveness.
The Cowboys’ offense starts and ends on the ground. Wyoming is gaining a whopping 5.2 yards per carry with running backs Xazavian Valladay and Trey Smith splitting carries this season. The duo has combined to run all over opposing defenses, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and scoring nine touchdowns.
With Wyoming running the ball on almost 66% of their plays, freshman quarterback Levi Williams hasn’t been called upon much. He is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, but the Cowboys are 113th in Passing Success, per College Football Data. Boise State has one of the best pass defenses in the Mountain West, so I don’t expect Wyoming’s passing game to play much of a factor in this one.
Wyoming has pretty much been the definition of average this season on defense. However, the Cowboys’ secondary has been relatively strong this season and could give Bachmeier some issues.
The Cowboys are 29th in Defensive Passing Success and are allowing only 6.9 yards per pass attempt. However, Bachmeier and the Boise State passing attack will be the best team they have seen all season. Wyoming’s rush defense has been stout as well, as the Cowboys are allowing only 3.6 yards per rush and sit 12th in Power Success Allowed.
Betting Analysis & Pick
It’s going to be cold and windy in Laramie on Saturday night, which should play right into Wyoming’s hands. I think the Cowboys are going to be able to control this game with their rushing attack and keep Bachmeier on the sidelines.
I have Boise State projected as only -5.67 favorites on the road, so I think there’s value on Wyoming at +12.5.
Pick: Wyoming +12.5 (down to +9).