The Liberty Flames take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in Conway, South Carolina, on Thursday, Sept. 24. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Liberty is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +116 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina prediction and college football pick for Thursday, September 24.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina Prediction
- Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Pick: Under 52.5 (Play to 51)
My Coastal Carolina vs. Liberty best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Coastal Car Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -104 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +116 |
- Liberty vs Coastal Carolina point spread: Liberty -2.5 (-118), Coastal Carolina +2.5 (-104)
- Liberty vs Coastal Carolina over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Liberty vs Coastal Carolina moneyline: Liberty -140, Coastal Carolina +116
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina College Football Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Three Identities
No matter your assessment of Liberty this season, you can probably find a data point to support your claim.
A 54-yard touchdown pass with 2:34 left by backup QB Jaylen Henderson is all that separated Liberty from an 0-2 start and a loss to FCS Gardner-Webb (which just fired its head coach that week for non-football things).
Instead, Liberty blew out Ball State, 51-15, and climbed to 2-1. Deshawn Purdie went from a 6-for-17 throwing day and getting benched to 13-for-20 with three touchdowns.
If we’re being candid, Jamey Chadwell in Lynchburg has seen depreciating results. Year 1 featured the fantastic 13-1 College Football Playoff season. In Year 2, Liberty went 8-4 and dropped a shocker to Kennesaw State as -26 favorites.
Last year, the team was decimated by injury and finished 4-8.
Through three games this season, we’ve seen shades of all three years.
A major strength of this team has been its third-down defense under coordinator Shawn Quinn. The Flames forced Ball State QB Keldric Luster to complete just 1-of-6 passes on third down (a short completion on third-and-25) and its other two opponents to log worse than a 40% Success Rate on the critical down.
A locked-down secondary has bailed out a largely ineffective pass rush that’s recorded just three sacks on the season so far.
Offensively, Chadwell opted for the most extreme example of running back-by-committee we’ve seen yet.
Against Ball State, 11 different players toted the football and nobody logged 10 carries. On the season, Peyton Jones (31) and Kam Davis (29) lead in carries, but they account for just 26.5% and 24.8% of carries, respectively.
So long as Liberty confounds opponents on third down, the defense will put this team in a position to win.
But spreading the ball too thin on offense hasn’t proved to be a winning strategy in two of three games so far.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Betting Preview: One-Man Show
Deuce Bailey has arrived. The rest of Coastal Carolina hasn’t gotten the memo.
Through three games, Bailey (a redshirt freshman) has thrown for 812 yards and eight touchdowns (against no interceptions) and rushed for another 147.
It’s truly been a one-man show with little help from his skill corps and a defense that twice has been a touch inadequate.
Special teams have been atrocious and, in concert, it leads to a 1-2 record with two one-score losses.
Last week, Bailey was strip-sacked on a promising 48-yard drive and later, Coastal’s punt return team gave the ball back to Delaware at the 36-yard line. The defense gave up four drives of seven-plus plays, which led to 32 minutes of Blue Hens football, and led to the 22-14 loss.
In Week 1, a hot start for West Virginia sputtered, but Coastal never really closed the gap despite the 31-24 final.
Many of Coastal’s flaws can be chalked up to breaking in a new coaching staff and having a young roster – 13 players in the two-deep that see action are sophomores or freshmen. Last year, it took Ryan Beard until October to really get his team moving in gear (albeit, at Missouri State).
The reason Coastal allowed so many sustained drives, an issue even at times in a 45-7 win over Fordham, is an inability to get off the field on third down. West Virginia went 9-for-18 while Delaware converted on five third downs. That 47% conversion rate against FBS teams ranks 103rd nationally.
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina Pick, Betting Analysis
These two schools have a history of a rivalry, one that was renewed in the 2020 Cure Bowl when both teams were at their peak – a game Liberty nudged out a 37-34 win in.
This dates back to each program’s days in the SoCon, and Liberty owns an 8-7 series edge. The programs also inked a four-year scheduling agreement that runs annually through 2030.
Forecasts call for possible rain Thursday, though the chances dwindle as the day progresses. Keep an eye on updated forecasts in case that precipitation shifts later. However, a stiff breeze is anticipated all day, with sustained northeasterly winds blowing in excess of 15 miles per hour.
This total opened at 53.5 points and moved down below 52 for a brief second, where it rebounded Monday. Early in the week, 52 appears to be the resistance point.
Liberty runs one of the slowest offensive paces in the country, running a new play every 31.8 seconds (132nd). I don’t have a ton of faith in Purdie, who has completed just 55.4% of his 65 passing attempts against pretty middling competition.
Both he and Bailey are completely infatuated with taking low-percentage downfield shots without real game-breaking receivers.
For Bailey, that’s a matter of his redshirt freshman gunslinging mentality – one that likely tapers as he matures. For Purdie, it’s a mix of trying to prove himself following a few ill-advised transfers and grasping at anything explosive. I don’t love either approach.
Liberty’s third-down defense is good enough to keep Coastal out of the end zone, and the secondary has put a lid on opposing explosive plays. But its offense is slow and methodical without the explosive threat on the ground.
Between the offensive tendencies and possible weather, I’m taking under this point total as it sits above two key figures, 51 and 52.
Pick: Under 52.5 (Play to 51)
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina Betting Trends
