The California Golden Bears take on the Boston College Eagles in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Boston Col is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here’s my Cal vs. Boston College prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Cal vs Boston College Prediction
- Cal vs. Boston College Pick: Cal +6.5
My Boston College vs. Cal best bet is on the Golden Bears to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Cal vs Boston College Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
- Cal vs Boston College point spread: Boston College -6.5 (-110 ), Cal +6.5 (-110)
- Cal vs Boston College over/under: 52.5 (-105o / -110u)
- Cal vs Boston College moneyline: Cal +185, Boston College -225
Cal vs Boston College Preview
California Golden Bears Betting Preview: Last Week an Outlier?
Looking at last week's box score, it's stunning that Cal lost 34-0 to San Diego State. The Golden Bears outgained the Aztecs offensively but could not score any points.
The Bears turned the ball over three times, including two interceptions from quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Cal's offensive metrics are troubling, but could be skewed by last week's blank on the scoreboard.
They rank outside the bottom 100 in EPA/Pass and Rush, including Early and Late Down EPA. They're setting themselves up for failure by consistently being behind the chains.
They have a decent matchup here, as Boston College's defensive metrics are not as strong as they appear. The Eagles are coming off performances in which they allowed 42 points to Michigan State and 30 points against Stanford.
That leads me to believe that Cal can pick up some offensive momentum here despite their matchup seeming tougher than it looks on paper.
Metrically, the weak point of the Boston College defense is its pass explosiveness allowed, so it'll be critical for Sagapolutele to bounce back from last week.
This is an underrated unit defensively. I like the defense's matchup, especially against BC's offensive trench.
The Eagles have been miserable at running the ball, which the Bears have been stout against. They should be able to force Boston College into becoming one-dimensional on offense, which will be a considerable edge.
The secondary has been tremendous, and last week was an outlier. Boston College has been outstanding through the air thus far, so shutting down their passing attack will loom large.
I have significant questions about their offense, but the market overreacted to last week's performance. As their offense is being overlooked here, I'll be looking to buy low on the Bears.
Boston College Eagles Betting Preview: To Be Determined
Boston College is coming off a bye, which should give it an additional edge at home. It will also benefit from Cal traveling cross-country, especially since the Golden Bears were blanked against San Diego State on Saturday night.
What's been impressive about BC thus far is quarterback Dylan Lonergan's performance. He has eight touchdown passes and an interception with 837 yards passing through three games.
The Eagles rank 11th in the nation in EPA/Pass and 14th in Early Down EPA/Play, but they face a tough matchup against the Cal defense. I like what Lonergan brings to the table, but many overlook the Cal defense after its performance last week.
What's most concerning about the Eagles is that they have decent defensive metrics, but they've allowed many points to middling opponents. The Cal offensive metrics look ugly, but it can potentially put up points under Sagapolutele.
I don't know what to make of BC here, as it has yet to prove anything against a viable opponent. It's also missing a ton of talent from last season, so I think the Eagles are still being overvalued in the market.
Cal vs Boston College Pick, Betting Analysis
It looks like a bad spot on paper for Cal, but I'm looking to buy low on the Golden Bears here. Their defense is much better than what people presume, and their offense can move the ball consistently through the air.
The final score last week did not illustrate the whole story, as it should've been a much closer contest if it weren't for some costly turnovers. I also don't believe in this Boston College team, and its defense can be exposed through the secondary.
The market has steamed up the number to +6.5, and I would love to grab a +7 or better before kickoff.
Pick: Cal +6.5 or Better (Wait for +7)
