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Saturday is the time to lock in with Oklahoma and No. 1 Texas renewing the Red River Rivalry in Dallas, Oregon hosting No. 21 UCLA, and Ole Miss traveling to Vanderbilt; there’s a great lineup of games to add to your betting card.
I’ve pinpointed three player props for Saturday, including picks for Oklahoma’s John Mateer, Oregon’s Dylan Raiola, and Ole Miss’s Kewan Lacy.
With that said, let's dive into my top three college football player props and NCAAF picks for Week 5 on Saturday, Oct. 10.
College Football Player Props, Picks
- John Mateer Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (+105 · bet365)
- Dylan Raiola Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120 · bet365)
- Kewan Lacy Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114 · FanDuel)
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John Mateer Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (+105)
The season-long trend supports this well on its own. Mateer is averaging just over 10 rushing attempts per game through four starts, and, more tellingly, he’s been shut out of the end zone on the ground all year, after scoring 8 rushing touchdowns a season ago.
His per-carry production has cratered too; he’s down to 1.9 yards per attempt on the season, and against Georgia he managed only half a yard per carry on 15 carries. That’s not an explosive dual-threat weapon padding his number; that’s scramble-and-sack math working against the total.
Texas is the worst possible matchup to expect a bounce-back in volume. The Longhorns’ defense ranks top-20 nationally against the run, holding opponents under three yards a carry, and the pass rush has been even more disruptive — Texas has already racked up 15 sacks this season at a rate that ranks among the best in the country, with edge rusher Colin Simmons alone good for 7.5 of them, including a five-sack outing against Tennessee.
Game environment also argues for the under. This is the Red River Rivalry at a neutral site in Dallas, and Oklahoma’s offensive line has already struggled to protect or create room for him. The Sooners managed only 65 rushing yards on 35 total team attempts against Georgia.
Against a defense playing this fast and getting off blocks this well, designed QB runs become a much bigger risk for Venables’ staff to keep calling. With Mateer trending toward fewer carries as the season has gone on and his heaviest workload still sitting south of 12.5, a number he hasn’t sniffed all year.
Pick: John Mateer Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (+105)
Dylan Raiola Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120)
This is Raiola’s first career start for Oregon, stepping in for the injured Dante Moore in a ranked Big Ten matchup against an unbeaten UCLA team, not an ideal recipe for needing three scores through the air to cash.
The volume case against the over starts with role uncertainty. Yes, Raiola was sharp in relief against USC, finishing just shy of 300 yards and two touchdowns on tidy efficiency. However, a cold start under the lights against a ranked opponent that just picked off its last opponent four times. A first career start, with a new center-quarterback rhythm and no training wheels, is a tougher setting to expect a three-score passing day.
UCLA’s defense, while not dominant across the board, has been opportunistic and improving fast. The Bruins just turned in a four-interception, two-pick-six performance against Maryland, and they’ve climbed into the top half of the country in pass defense while already forcing eight interceptions on the season.
That turnover-hunting identity is exactly the kind of unit that can keep a newly anointed conservative in check and limit his possessions rather than letting him operate freely.
Oregon’s offensive identity also works against stacking passing scores. The Ducks are a run-first group averaging well over 200 rushing yards a game with nearly 20 rushing touchdowns already banked this season, by far their preferred way to finish drives.
With a new quarterback under center in a ranked, competitive game, expect Oregon to lean even harder on the ground attack and protect Raiola rather than ask him to sling it into a secondary that’s been hunting the ball, the exact game plan that keeps this number under 2.5.
Dylan Raiola Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120)
Kewan Lacy Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Kewan Lacy is working his way back from a shoulder injury that cost him last week’s game, and Ole Miss coach Pete Golding has been explicit about managing his workload in his return, saying directly that Lacy won’t be handling anywhere near a full snap count and will instead rotate with JT Lindsey and Makhi Frazier depending on how he feels.
That’s about as clean a signal as you’ll get that a feature back’s full route-running, pass-catching workload is being deliberately capped in his first game back.
Lacy’s role this season has also been almost exclusively a rushing one. He’s built his nearly 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns almost entirely on the ground, with receiving work a clear secondary piece of his usage even at full health.
Layer a managed snap count on top of a receiving role that was already thin, and the math gets difficult for 20 air yards, especially with two other backs who played well enough in Lacy’s absence against Florida to keep earning passing-down work even once he’s back in the mix.
With Golding signaling caution rather than a feature workload, and Lacy’s receiving usage already limited in full-strength games, this prop is built on usage limitations the coaching staff has already told you about directly.
Pick: Kewan Lacy Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
