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The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Arkansas, on Saturday, Oct. 10. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Tennessee is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -530. Arkansas, meanwhile, enters as a +13.5 underdog and is +390 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10.
Tennessee vs Arkansas Prediction
- Tennessee vs. Arkansas Pick: Under 51.5 Points (Play to 49.5)
My Arkansas vs. Tennessee best bet is under 51.5 points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Tennessee vs Arkansas Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -530 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +390 |
- Tennessee vs Arkansas point spread: Tennessee -13.5 (-110), Arkansas +13.5 (-110)
- Tennessee vs Arkansas over/under: 51.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Tennessee vs Arkansas moneyline: Tennessee -530, Arkansas +390
Tennessee vs Arkansas College Football Preview
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview: New Man Under Center
After a home loss and cover to the No. 1 team in the country, Tennessee was not punished too much, dropping to No. 17 in the AP Top 25. It then moved back up to No. 15 with a victory over Auburn.
However, scoring has become much more difficult in SEC play.
In their first three games, the Volunteers averaged 47.7 points per game, though just one came against a Power 4 opponent. They were held to 17 points against Texas and scored 24 points against Auburn last week.
Head coach Josh Heupel is used to his offenses scoring a lot of points and playing at high tempo. However, this season, he's dealing with a pair of talented but inexperienced quarterbacks.
Five-star true freshman Faizon Brandon had started the first five games while accounting for nine touchdowns and one turnover through the first three games. However, he was sacked 10 times against Texas as the Volunteers managed just 221 yards of total offense.
Against Auburn, Tennessee punted on its first four possessions, and Brandon went 3-for-8 for 0 yards and was replaced after his first career interception, as he has been dealing with a lingering shoulder injury.
George MacIntyre, a former four-star recruit himself, didn't light it up either but was efficient. MacIntyre went 8-for-10 for 86 yards as the Volunteers scored 21 points in the second half.
They enter this game 90th in Passing Success Rate and 121st in Passing Explosiveness. This week, MacIntyre will be the starter as Brandon gets another week to heal.
MacIntyre will get the benefit of a strong defense and running game. Tennessee ranks 36th in Rushing Success Rate and 34th in Rushing Explosiveness.
DeSean Bishop has been the star, ranking 11th in the FBS with 540 rushing yards and tied for sixth with seven rushing touchdowns. He went for 220 yards and three touchdowns last year.
Defensively, Tennessee leads the FBS with 23 sacks, tied for fifth with 42 tackles for loss and ranks 11th in Havoc.
Penn State transfer Xavier Gilliam has been disruptive from his defensive tackle position and is tied for the team lead with four sacks. Seven players have recorded multiple sacks already, and the Vols' defensive line should be in line to dominate once again.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview: No Room to Run
At Memphis, Ryan Silverfield usually had a high-powered offense. In Year 1 in Fayetteville, it hasn't translated just yet.
In three games against Power 4 opponents, Arkansas has scored just 34 points. It ranks 115th in points per game, 119th in Explosiveness and 124th in Havoc allowed.
Quarterbacks KJ Jackson and AJ Hill, primarily Jackson, have seen time, but neither has been particularly effective. Jackson has thrown an interception in four of his five games this season and ranks 99th in the FBS in QBR.
It hasn't helped matters that the Razorbacks have gotten virtually nothing from their running game.
Running backs Sutton Smith, Braylen Russell and Cam Settles are all averaging three yards per carry, while the Razorbacks are averaging 2.8 per carry as a team. They rank 119th in Rushing Success Rate and 135th in Rushing Explosiveness.
With their inability to get much push up front this season, this isn't a great time to welcome Tennessee and its front seven to town.
Defensively, the Razorbacks have seen some improvement, ranking second in the FBS in Explosiveness allowed, 16th in Success Rate allowed on passing downs and 16th in Passing Explosiveness allowed.
They're allowing five fewer points per game after ranking 129th in scoring defense last season.
However, stopping the run remains an issue. Arkansas ranks 115th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 83rd in Rushing Explosiveness allowed.
Consecutive games against Utah and Georgia didn't help those numbers, as the Hogs allowed nearly 400 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in just those games alone. The Razorbacks will have their hands full with Bishop and Co. this week.
Tennessee vs Arkansas Pick, Betting Analysis
When Tennessee last came to Fayetteville, it had a young quarterback in then-Volunteer Nico Iamaleava.
The Razorbacks pulled the upset, 19-14, in a game that flew under the total by over three touchdowns. The under has gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings, with the last two meetings coming in consecutive years.
This season, both teams have leaned heavily toward the under, as it has gone 4-1 for both teams this season.
Tennessee's defense has been a major reason, as it's emerging into one of the best units in the country. It should have plenty of success against the struggling Razorbacks offense.
Arkansas' defense is not nearly as dominant as Tennessee's, but it has been competitive. In the four Arkansas games that have gone under this season, the under has hit by over a touchdown three times.
If that trend continues and Tennessee continues to dominate defensively, this under should cash comfortably as well.
Pick: Under 51.5 Points (Play to 49.5)
Tennessee vs Arkansas Betting Trends
