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The No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0, 3-0 SEC) take on the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (5-0, 3-0) for another top-10 clash between these teams on Saturday, Oct. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Tide have been rolling of late and are coming off a 56-23 victory over what was a top-20 Mississippi State team. Before that, they dominated South Carolina by 41.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are in the same boat. Georgia's closest game this season was a 24-point victory over Vanderbilt last week, which came right after a 28-point win over Oklahoma.
Alabama enters as a short favorite of -1.5 with the over/under sitting at 51.5. So, who holds the advantage in this top-10 SEC showdown?
We polled nine of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let's dive into our Alabama vs. Georgia and college football predictions for Saturday, Oct. 10.
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Alabama vs. Georgia Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Georgia +1.5
The Action Network staff will gladly take the points with Georgia on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.
The Week 6 headliner has Game of the Year potential, and a tight line is nothing new for these two teams. The point spread is on track to close at odds of 2.5 or shorter for the fourth time in the last five years.
Both the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide sport identical 4-1 ATS records this season. Alabama has beaten the spread by +14.4 points per game, while Georgia comes in at +7.7.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart took over the Bulldogs program in 2015. He’s been an underdog 14 times. Overall, he's 9–5 against the spread in these spots.
According to key PRO insights, Georgia’s a key side.
The fair line utilizing Action Network's projections should be more like Georgia -1.4. Experts in the Action App are also taking the Bulldogs in a variety of ways, be it the spread or even moneyline.
Is Week 6 when Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell comes back down to earth?
As Action Network's Stuckey noted on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, more than half of Russell’s yards have come via deep balls.
If the weather forecast is accurate, Tuscaloosa could get hit with some rain and wind on Saturday night.
Not only could that sap Alabama's deep passing game, but Georgia’s secondary is already no slouch. The Bulldogs have allowed 9.7 yards per completion this season, markedly better than Alabama's 13.3 allowed.
Ultimately, the Action Network panel sides with Georgia covering the spread.
Alabama vs. Georgia Over/Under Pick
Over 51.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 3 Picks |
Under 51.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Under 51.5
By Joshua Nunn
Much has been made of the weather impact on this heavyweight bout, and there were even talks of moving the time, date or venue for this game.
Our staff is quite split on what type of game flow we should see in this matchup and how much scoring will, in fact, happen. The slim majority lean toward the under, while several of our writers were truly undecided.
I'm not convinced that Georgia will register explosives on the ground, but I am convinced that the Dawgs are going to run the ball while trying to establish the line of scrimmage.
The stable is stocked with well-equipped ball-carriers, so fresh legs shouldn't be an issue, but expect Nate Frazier and Dwight Phillips Jr. to carry the load.
Quarterback Gunner Stockton has had a nose for running the ball in key situations, and his mobility has helped Georgia pick up first downs and extend drives over the years.
While not involved in a high-pressure situation yet, I do expect Georgia to throttle down the tempo and play methodically in this game.
Alabama hasn't run nearly as much tempo as it did in the opener and ran just 61 total plays last week.
If you're looking at the under, the concerning stat is that the Tide have averaged eight yards per play while racking up 483 yards or more and 49 points or more in every game.
Alabama is going to take deep shots in this game, and the Tide have a quarterback in Keelon Russell who has shown poise, composure and agility to create inside and outside the pocket.
The biggest difference has been the effectiveness of the ground game, which was such a liability last year. The balance and potency Alabama possesses totally change the equation when defenses are trying to stop this exquisite unit.
While the staff leans under, I'm not convinced Georgia can pin down this Alabama offensive attack for four quarters, with or without the weather. Not getting the wind and rain is going to keep me off the total here.
Alabama vs. Georgia Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -122 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +102 |
