College Football Bowl Confidence Pool Rankings: Collin Wilson’s Picks for All 2023 Bowl Games

Every sport offers a unique slice of gambling that requires research, statistical analysis, market inspection and a bit of luck.

One of college basketball's betting pinnacles is the March Madness Calcutta pool, while golf provides a season-long “one-and-done” format. For college football, the most exciting postseason play is a bowl confidence pool.

If you’re unfamiliar with the format, a participant needs to pick a winner in every single game and assign a “confidence rating” that will be added up at the end.

Although pools with point spreads exist, this article will focus on pure straight-up winners and an assigned value.

For example, if a participant feels that Oregon will blow out Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl, then the Ducks would be the selection with the highest point total (41) assigned in the pool. Conversely, if a bowl game has plenty of turnover in terms of coaching, transfer portal and opt-outs, then a player could assign the lowest point value to that game.

Information is king when it comes to creating a pool entry. This article will focus on 41 games, not including the national title or Celebration Bowl.

Point values are based on a straight-up winner, keeping in mind the latest news on coaches and players.

We'll start with our list of bowls before a short summary for each game.

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Ohio opened as a favorite in this game after defeating three straight teams that did not make a bowl. Then, the floodgates of the transfer portal opened, and Ohio lost its biggest contributors at the offensive skills position.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, running back Sieh Bangura and two of the top targets are not expected to play in this game. Georgia Southern, meanwhile, had very few transfer portal losses.

Quarterback Davis Brin should thrive with short passing against the Bobcats' Cover 3 defense. This is a great opportunity for Eagles head coach Clay Helton to pick up his first cover in his sixth bowl game.

• Pick: Georgia Southern · Confidence: 28

Jacksonville State might be the most motivated bowl team after completing its first season in FBS.

The defense has been excellent against the rush, particularly against teams that run outside zone. Enter Louisiana, which utilizes a rush-based offense that loves outside zone.

The biggest contrast in this game is the lack of rush defense from Louisiana, ranking bottom-20 in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

• Pick: Jacksonville State · Confidence: 20

Miami (OH) limped into the MAC Championship on defense and special teams and has now lost backup quarterback Aveon Smith to the transfer portal.

The RedHawks will turn to Henry Hesson and his five career passing attempts that came against Robert Morris in 2022.

The biggest issue for Appalachian State this season was defending the run, an area Miami (OH) can't expose without Smith.

The RedHawks defense has been excellent at stopping explosives, but App State quarterback Joey Aguilar will do enough to notch give the Sun Belt a victory over the MAC.

• Pick: Appalachian State · Confidence: 23

Don’t look now, but Jerry Kill is looking to build a bowl winning streak after losing his first five attempts.

New Mexico State went to the Quick Lane Bowl in 2022 with a desired landing spot in Albuquerque, but it took a year for the Aggies coaches and players to get their wish.

This has been an incredible season for New Mexico State, which covered 10 games on the schedule, leading to an appearance in the Conference USA Championship game.

Fresno State will enter hostile territory with linebacker coach Tim Skipper serving as head coach for Jeff Tedford. The Bulldogs defense doesn't have an answer for the Aggies' ground attack led by quarterback Diego Pavia.

• Pick: New Mexico State · Confidence: 36

Boise State was on a heater, winning at the end of November before the computers sent the Broncos to Las Vegas for the Mountain West Championship.

The conference championship victory over UNLV cemented Spencer Danielson as the Broncos' head coach, but Boise still lost quarterback Taylen Green to the transfer portal was expected.

The Broncos will be one-dimensional in this bowl game, relying on star running back Ashton Jeanty for offensive production.

UCLA head coach Chip Kelly has been swimming through the rumor mill of coaches to be fired thanks to an offense with poor ball discipline and red-zone efficiency.

With Dante Moore in the transfer portal, quarterbacks Ethan Garbers and Collin Schlee will face a Boise defense that doesn't create much Havoc.

Back the better defense in this game with so many offensive questions, as a cast of UCLA defenders will tee off on the Broncos offense.

• Pick: UCLA · Confidence: 10

There might not be a game with more fluidity in terms of coaches and rosters than the participants in the Independence Bowl.

Cal offensive line coach Mike Bloesch will take on play-calling duties in the wake of Jake Spavital moving on to Baylor.

The portal has wreaked havoc on both rosters, as Cal loses its top tackler while Texas Tech will miss key contributors at wide receiver and the offensive line.

The loss of defensive interior Jaylon Hutchings to injury will remove the bite from Texas Tech's pass rush, which hurts the Red Raiders because Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza is much more productive from a clean pocket.

Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks is set to return in 2024, but losses on the offensive line will create issues for the running back and the protection of quarterback Behren Morton.

• Pick: Cal · Confidence: 7

Western Kentucky logged just one win over a bowl team this season: South Florida. That's a stark contrast to an Old Dominion team that caught fire during November, ending the season with four wins over bowl teams.

Nearly every contributor to the offensive line is in the transfer portal for Western Kentucky, leaving quarterback Austin Reed with no protection against an Old Dominion defense that's top-25 in the red zone.

Old Dominion features a heavy rush offense that excels in creating explosives through quarterback Grant Wilson and the running back tandem of Keshawn Wicks and Kadarius Callaway.

Any team that can establish the ground game is always a threat to beat a very poor Hilltoppers defense.

• Pick: Old Dominion · Confidence: 30

UTSA is still looking for its first bowl victory in program history. The Roadrunners may be in luck with their Frisco Bowl opponent, Marshall.

The Thundering Herd have lost starting quarterback Cam Fancher and guard Trent Holler to the transfer portal. Cole Pennington will continue under center for Marshall, and he has yet to throw a touchdown or a big-time throw in 85 dropbacks.

The Roadrunners have the explosive advantage, ranking fifth nationally in Rush EPA, compared to the Thundering Herd's defensive rank of 129th.

The rushing attack of running backs Robert Henry and Kevorian Barnes complements the game of quarterback Frank Harris, which should help UTSA roll to its first-ever bowl victory.

• Pick: UTSA · Confidence: 39

There aren't significant losses for either team, as Syracuse should finally have a healthy Garrett Shrader at quarterback.

The Orange offense is a heavy ground attack with their quarterback serving as the biggest contributor.

Limiting explosives has been the biggest issue for South Florida all season, thanks in part to a bottom-FBS rank in broken tackles allowed.

Don't be fooled by Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown’s touchdown-to-interception numbers — he has logged more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws and faces his worst coverage package in Cover 1 against Syracuse.

• Pick: Syracuse · Confidence: 21

These teams will mirror each other in offensive strategy, with one program creating more explosives to pick up victories.

Georgia Tech is a top-25 rushing team in terms of Success Rate, ranking sixth in Line Yards behind running back Jamal Haynes.

UCF utilizes the rush on nearly 60% of offensive snaps, ranking 20th in Rushing Success Rate with running back RJ Harvey and quarterback John Rhys Plumlee.

Neither Georgia Tech nor UCF have been able to defend the run all season, but limiting explosive plays is the handicap in the Gasparilla Bowl. UCF ranks 13th in rush explosives, compared to Georgia Tech at 41st.

With a heavy advantage in Quality Drives, look for UCF to mow its way to victory.

• Pick: UCF · Confidence: 19

Arkansas State is the better team in areas outside of the win-loss column. All six of the Red Wolves' losses came against bowl teams, while Northern Illinois took four losses to non-bowl teams.

The Huskies rank near dead last in strength of schedule, while Arkansas State logged 77 points against a fellow Sun Belt bowl team in Texas State in Week 12.

The Red Wolves will get their offensive line anchor back at center in Jacob Bayer, pumping up the inside zone attack led by quarterback Jaylen Raynor.

Northern Illinois has posted a subpar Success Rate against inside zone at 44%.

Red Wolves head coach Butch Jones is 5-1 against the spread in bowl games, and now he's looking to log an outright win in Montgomery, Alabama.

• Pick: Arkansas State · Confidence: 14

The Trojans dominated the Sun Belt this season, winning the conference championship before losing head coach Jon Sumrall to Tulane for the same position. Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato will serve as interim for this game, as the losses on the roster to the portal are minimal.

The story is the opposite with Duke, losing nearly every key contributor on defense along with starting running back Jordan Waters. Head coach Mike Elko has also left for Texas A&M, taking two Duke assistants with him.

The Blue Devils will turn to Manny Diaz in 2024 while 31-year coaching veteran Trooper Taylor tries to conduct bowl practices with a makeshift staff and roster.

There's minimal bite to the Duke offense behind quarterback Grayson Loftis heading into battle with a Troy defense that ranks top-25 in nearly every category.

• Pick: Troy · Confidence: 32

in a regular-season game, this would have been a showcase for the Group of Five. Instead, nearly every defensive contributor for James Madison has entered the transfer portal.

Head coach Curt Cignetti has moved on to Indiana, leaving offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski to James Madison in their first-ever bowl appearance.

The Dukes will face Air Force's ground attack, but James Madison has no experience against the fullback dive or triple option.

Quarterback Jordan McCloud is in the portal and expected to play for the Dukes, but that's subject to change, as each of the players has a open recruitment.

Make no mistake — the star of the James Madison team is the rush defense and several of those players do not have intentions of playing the bowl.

Quarterback Zac Larrier could be healthy enough to play this game in Amon G. Carter, the site of Air Force's dominant bowl victory over Baylor last year.

• Pick: Air Force · Confidence: 5

The Panthers are trending in the wrong direction, losing their last five games of the season.

The offense was centered around the explosiveness of the run game, which now travels to frigid Boise, Idaho, with star running back Marcus Carroll headed to Missouri.

There are bigger problems for Georgia State on the defensive side of the ball, as the Panthers rank 128th in allowing pass explosives.

Whether McCae Hillstead, Cooper Legas or Levi Williams get the start, each will have a full cabinet of explosive targets in Terrell Vaughn, Jalen Royals and Micah Davis.

• Pick: Utah State · Confidence: 18

Eastern Michigan beat Buffalo and Akron to close the season with six wins, signifying another overachievement for head coach Chris Creighton.

The Eagles won their first bowl since 1987 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl a year ago but now travel to a hostile environment in Mobile, Alabama. Once known as the LendingTree, Dollar General and GoDaddy Bowl, the 68 Ventures Bowl will take place on South Alabama’s home field of Hancock Whitney Stadium.

The Eastern Michigan offense is bottom-15 in nearly every category after facing the second-easiest schedule in the nation. Even with star running back La’Damian Webb opting for the NFL Draft, South Alabama will have too much firepower for a team that struggled in MAC play.

• Pick: South Alabama · Confidence: 37

One key to confidence pools is minimizing risk where underdogs could win outright. Utah fell short of all Pac-12 goals and finds itself heading into the Las Vegas Bowl with a dozen players in the transfer portal.

The good news is quarterback Cam Rising is back in 2024; the bad news is depth at quarterback for next season.

Former pig farmer Bryson Barnes is in the transfer portal but expects to play in this game. Like most other quarterbacks, if Barnes commits to another school, there's no expectation that he'll play in the Las Vegas Bowl.

The opposite is true for Northwestern, a team that hired David Braun as a defensive coordinator and fast-tracked to head coach amid the hazing scandal that led to the firing of longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald.

The Wildcats were covering machines all season thanks to a top-20 rank in Offensive Finishing Drives, an area where Utah struggled all season.

• Pick: Northwestern · Confidence: 2

San Jose State rattled off six consecutive wins, including a victory in the season finale over UNLV, to conclude the regular season.

But because of the computer polls used for tiebreakers in the Mountain West, the Spartans did not compete for the conference crown. Instead, they'll take a trip to Hawaii to cap off the season.

This is San Jose State and head coach Brent Brennan's first trip to the island for a bowl but certainly not their first trip for a game. San Jose State has played in Hawaii in three of the past four seasons, winning every instance, including a 35-0 victory over the Rainbow Warriors on Oct. 28.

Coastal Carolina ended the season with two losses and heads to Honolulu on a 12-hour direct flight without quarterback Grayson McCall.

Both teams generate plenty of rush explosives, but the Chanticleers' inability to defend inside zone will be the difference against the Spartans' duo of quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and running back Kairee Robinson.

• Pick: San Jose State · Confidence: 34

PJ Fleck has led Minnesota to four bowl games since taking over as head coach, winning every instance, including this very bowl in 2018 over Georgia Tech.

This is a revenge game for the Gophers after losing to Bowling Green as a 30-point favorite back in 2021.

This version of the Falcons may not be as successful in stopping Minnesota's run game. Bowling Green finished outside the top 100 in numerous rush defense categories, including 132nd in Stuff Rate.

Despite quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis hitting the transfer portal, Minnesota will be fine under center with fourth-year quarterback Cole Kramer. Running back Jordan Nubin and Darius Taylor are enough to avenge the 2021 game.

• Pick: Minnesota · Confidence: 4

In terms of handicapping the transfer portal, this is the easiest game on the board with only a single player entering in Rice cornerback Jordan Dunbar.

Texas State has been an offensive powerhouse in the Sun Belt with the infusion of head coach GJ Kinne from Incarnate Word. Quarterback TJ Finley leads an offense that's top-25 in Success Rate and Finishing Drives.

The explosiveness comes on the ground with running back Ismail Mahdi, who recorded 38 double-digit-yard runs this season while creating 47 missed tackles.

Rice will combat with backup quarterback AJ Padgett, who'll take over starting duties in Week 11 after JT Daniels' medical retirement.

The explosives and consistency have not been there the last three games, as the Owls failed to win any games against bowl teams this season.

Finley has been red hot in passing downs for the Bobcats, ranking 10th in both Success Rate and catchable throw rate.

• Pick: Texas State · Confidence: 15

There was a potential chance for an upset with Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki taking the same position at Penn State. However, head coach Lance Leipold immediately scooped one of the best coordinators in the nation in Jeff Grimes, stating there would be no changes in terminology, philosophy or scheme.

Grimes is already on the ground contributing to bowl preparations, softening the blow of losing Kotelnicki.

Jason Bean should return under center with full health, taking advantage of a UNLV defense that could not create Havoc or stop any Mountain West passing attack. The Rebels' coaches have received plenty of interest from other programs with head coach Barry Odom rumored for Mississippi State and Brennan Marion for every offensive coordinator position in the country.

The GoGo offense is similar to Kansas, utilizing multiple personnel and heavy motion, but the inability to create explosives in passing downs will be the difference in this game.

Quarterback Jayden Maiava struggled down the stretch against tougher defenses, producing seven turnover-worthy plays and four interceptions against Air Force, San Jose State and Boise State.

• Pick: Kansas · Confidence: 25

Slade Nagle will take the interim head coach job for Tulane, serving as a bridge from the Willie Fritz era to the Jon Sumrall era, before leaving to join Fritz at Houston himself.

The transfer portal entries are starting to trickle in for the Green Wave, from wide receiver Chris Brazzell to defensive linemen Devean Deal and Keith Cooper Jr. The biggest piece of the puzzle is quarterback Michael Pratt, as backup Kai Horton is also in the portal.

A number of assistant coaches are also expected to depart after the game, so Virginia Tech has the upper hand from a motivation perspective.

The Hokies won four of their last six to return to bowl season, with the last postseason victory coming in the memorable 2016 Belk Bowl over Arkansas.

Defense and special teams have powered the Hokies all season under head coach Brent Pry.

Tulane finished 85th in Offensive Finishing Drives, as the red zone is the only inefficient area of the Hokies defense that will not be exposed — especially if Pratt elects to enter the transfer portal.

• Pick: Virginia Tech · Confidence: 31

The strongest unit in this game is the rushing attack of West Virginia after facing the 19th-toughest schedule in the country.

Quarterback Garrett Greene is expected to have Brandon Yates slide over from guard to center, blocking for the thunder-and-lightning combo of CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White.

The Mountaineers rank top-25 in terms of Rushing Success Rate and explosives — a bad mix for a North Carolina defense that ended the season 120th in Stuff Rate.

The Tar Heels must also look to find stability in the wake of Drake Maye declaring for the NFL Draft.

The offense failed to produce down the stretch, losing four of its final five FBS games on the schedule.

West Virginia should see head coach Neal Brown go from the hot seat to the mayo dump seat.

• Pick: West Virginia · Confidence: 9

Unlike the Cotton Bowl a season ago, USC fans don't have to wait for a decision from Caleb Williams. The quarterback has declared for the NFL Draft and will not play, as Miller Moss will get his first start in three seasons as a Trojan.

The junior has produced three touchdown passes on 59 career attempts, nearly all in garbage time.

Key pieces of the Trojans offense have also declared for the draft, from running back MarShawn Lloyd to wide receiver Brenden Rice.

While the transfer portal is a revolving door for head coach Lincoln Riley, Louisville has maintained nearly every contributor on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals are top-20 in Defensive Success Rate and limiting explosives.

Look for the offense to do enough against a USC defense that provided the antidote to every team struggling to put points on the board during the regular season.

• Pick: Louisville · Confidence: 26

There might not be a better coach to blindly put money down on in bowl season than Mike Gundy, who's 11-6 against the spread in bowl games. There's also motivation on Gundy's side, losing this very bowl to Texas A&M in 2019.

The offense is all about man-blocking schemes and counter for Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II.

The Texas A&M defense is in flux as of writing, losing several run defenders, including Walter Nolen to Fadil Diggs. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and interior McKinnley Jackson are the next names to watch as the Aggies transition from Jimbo Fisher to Mike Elko.

Before interim coach Elijah Robinson can start his work as Syracuse's defensive coordinator, he's tasked with leading bowl preparations for quarterback Jaylen Henderson.

But even at full strength, Texas A&M has not found a way to stop offenses that run man-blocking schemes, owning a 42% Success Rate.

• Pick: Oklahoma State · Confidence: 17

The Mustangs were slighted by the College Football Playoff committee, ultimately selecting Liberty for the Fiesta Bowl and SMU for the Fenway Bowl. The good news is an early ACC game for SMU, which will switch conferences and face the Eagles next season.

There have been minimal losses to the transfer portal for SMU, maintaining a defense that ranks top-10 in numerous categories. Now, quarterback Kevin Jennings gets plenty of practice for a bowl game after taking over starting duties for the injured Preston Stone.

Jennings flashed a couple of big-time throws and mistakes, but an average depth of target at 10.2 yards on 33 passing attempts shows the arm strength needed in head coach Rhett Lashlee’s system.

That's bad news for a Boston College defense that ranks near dead last in numerous categories, from pass rush and coverage to Finishing Drives and Havoc.

This may be a "home" game for the Eagles, but don't tell that to a number of players who have hit the portal or will sit with injury.

• Pick: SMU · Confidence: 24

Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano gave Miami head coach Mario Cristobal his first shot as a position coach over 20 years ago. While Cristobal has tailored his head coaching career to emulate his mentor, he lacks in producing similar success in bowl season. Schiano has posted a 5-1-1 spread record in bowl season to Cristobal’s record of 2-4-1.

Now, Miami must deal with a number of contributors who will not make the trip to New York, from quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a number of starters on the defensive side of the ball.

Rutgers will be without cornerback Max Melton, a variable that might not change the game with the Hurricanes putting Jacurri Brown under center.

Rutgers is a team that doesn't beat itself, ranking 12th in Havoc Allowed and seventh in tackling. Meanwhile, the Miami offense has not been the model of consistency this season, relying on the explosives play.

Rutgers played the second-toughest schedule in the nation but still finished fifth in preventing rush explosives.

• Pick: Rutgers · Confidence: 13

The winner of this game gets to eat a live mascot, which is sure to create a highlight for all of college football history.

The one-year Brennan Armstrong experiment is set to conclude for the Wolfpack following another season of poor numbers with pressure. However, Kansas State has failed to produce any pass rush this season — good news for an NC State team that finished 104th in Havoc Allowed.

The Wildcats had severe struggles in the tackling department, ranking 125th, per PFF.

The bruising offense of Kansas State will be a little less potent without quarterback Will Howard, offensive coordinator Collin Klein and running back Treshaun Ward.

• Pick: NC State · Confidence: 8

I have low confidence on a game that could be a complete toss-up.

The Jackson Arnold era officially begins at Oklahoma with quarterback Dillon Gabriel off to Oregon. New offensive coordinator Seth Littrell has plenty of roots in Oklahoma and will be tasked with creating the game plan for the bowl after Jeff Lebby took the head-coaching position at Mississippi State.

As Oklahoma prepares to leave the Big 12, Arizona is set to enter the conference under Action Network Coach of the Year Jedd Fisch. There are minimal losses to the transfer portal with only an offensive lineman and wide receiver expected to opt-out for the NFL Draft.

The Arizona offense clicked this season once Noah Fifita took over the quarterback position, as wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan averaged an explosive 2.7 yards per route run.

With minimal changes to the roster and coaching staff, look for Arizona to enter the Big 12 off an Alamo Bowl win.

• Pick: Arizona · Confidence: 3

Despite declaring for the NFL Draft, running back Ray Davis will play for Kentucky in the Gator Bowl. The explosive back led Kentucky to several wins in SEC play and now faces a Clemson defense loaded with opt-outs and transfers.

Safety Andrew Mukuba has already bolted from Clemson for Texas, making life easier for Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary.

Even with full personnel, Clemson struggled to keep opponents out of the end zone, allowing an average of 3.8 points on 45 opportunities.

On the other side of the ball, quarterback Cade Klubnik put together one of the more disappointing seasons in all of college football, logging just 11 big-time throws to 17 turnover-worthy plays.

Look for this defensive grudge match to go in favor of the team with the better chance of creating explosives and converting red-zone opportunities into points.

• Pick: Kentucky · Confidence: 11

This could be the most portal-heavy bowl on the entire schedule, as the known factors in this game have all moved on.

Oregon State has lost its head coach, starting quarterback, backup quarterback and starting running back — and that's just the tip of the iceberg.

Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman has opted out with the expectation of being the first of many big-time contributors to not make the trip to El Paso.

The positive for Notre Dame is keeping the coaching staff intact with Marcus Freeman.

Depth certainly favors the Irish as well, as running back Jeremiyah Love averaged more than 4.1 yards after contact alongside a wide receiver unit filled with underclassmen.

Notre Dame is expected to field most of its defense, which should be the deciding factor in a Sun Bowl featuring two decimated rosters.

• Pick: Notre Dame · Confidence: 12

Quarterback Seth Henigan elected to stay with Memphis through 2024 and looks to lead the Tigers in their home stadium against Iowa State's 3-3-5 defense.

Memphis ended the season with national average numbers in Success Rate and EPA against the 3-3-5, but it now gets a Cyclones version that's top-20 in coverage, per PFF.

Iowa State is sure to give the Tigers plenty of complications, as two offensive line starters have hit the transfer portal.

Quarterback Rocco Becht was electric in his final three games, posting seven touchdowns to a single interception.

Memphis has struggled to contain explosives all season, sitting outside the top 100 in standard downs. That's music to the ears of Becht, who leads an offense that finished first overall in standard downs explosives.

• Pick: Iowa State · Confidence: 35

Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz expected minimal transfer portal movement and NFL opt-outs in preparation for the Cotton Bowl.

Mizzou is one of the very few rosters that's seen nearly zero churn, retaining one of the most electric offenses in the nation with quarterback Brady Cook, running back Cody Schrader and wide receiver Luther Burden III.

While Missouri opened as a 6-point underdog, the steam has come hard and fast, moving the Tigers down to a favorite.

A large part of that is the roster of Ohio State, as quarterback Kyle McCord hit the portal, along with a number of large contributors to the one-loss team.

One of these teams is ecstatic with the chance to win a New Year's Six bowl, while the other is in a complete rebuild for 2024.

• Pick: Missouri · Confidence: 38

Key player and coach moves have this game pointing toward the Rebels.

Manny Diaz is no longer the defensive coordinator of Penn State, taking the position of head coach with Duke. The hiring of Andy Kotelnicki is one of the best in college football, but he won't coach at the offensive coordinator position until after the bowl.

Penn State also has opt-outs that include defensive lineman Chop Robinson, along with potential NFL losses at cornerback and blindside offensive tackle.

Ole Miss will enter the Peach Bowl at full strength with quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins.

Considering the Nittany Lions offense is one of the worst in creating explosive plays and generating success in the passing game, the better offense belongs to the SEC team.

• Pick: Ole Miss · Confidence: 6

How different would the point spread be for Auburn without its loss to New Mexico State? What if it didn't allow Jalen Milroe to convert a fourth-and-goal from 31 yards out in the Iron Bowl?

There's a discount on the Tigers' side, as Hugh Freeze looks to extend his sizable bowl record of 7-1 against the spread.

Quarterback Payton Thorne and running back Jarquez Hunter ran both inside and outside zone with plenty of success this season. That's bad news for a Maryland defense that was one of the worst in the nation in terms of Success Rate and explosives allowed against inside zone.

• Pick: Auburn · Confidence: 27

The last time Georgia lost a bowl game was the 2019 Sugar Bowl, as a lethargic Bulldogs team missed an opportunity to play for the national title. Bevo veered toward Uga, just like Texas embarrassed Georgia in that bowl game.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is now in the same position, missing out on the College Football Playoff with a loaded roster full of NFL talent that will now play in a New Year's Six game.

Motivational speeches have become commonplace for Smart, as no one expects Georgia to show up in the Orange Bowl.

Florida State will have all the motivation in the world to finish the season undefeated after the playoff snub, but the pieces needed to beat Georgia are not in place. Jordan Travis will remain out with injury, while wide receiver Johnny Wilson has opted for the NFL Draft.

As Tate Rodemaker prepares for starting quarterback duties, the Seminoles have a half-dozen other players who could opt out for the draft in the weeks leading up to the Orange Bowl.

• Pick: Georgia · Confidence: 40

Is there any doubt the most motivated team in bowl season will be Wyoming after Craig Bohl gives his final pregame speech? The Wyoming head coach announced he will retire after this game, concluding a coaching career that started as a graduate assistant in Nebraska back in 1981.

Bohl’s final task is taking on a Toledo team fresh off a loss in the MAC Championship game.

The Rockets lost quarterback Dequan Finn to the transfer portal after five years of service. Backup Tucker Gleason did have a strong showing in the advanced stats while enjoying a cup of coffee in 2022, but he now faces a Wyoming defense that doesn't allow the big play.

The Cowboys ended the season scoring 84 points in their final two games, all powered by the legs and arm of quarterback Andrew Peasley.

• Pick: Wyoming · Confidence: 29

The Tigers are one of the few teams that can lose a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback and still have plenty of talent under center. Jayden Daniels is expected to opt out of the bowl game after winning the prestigious award, allowing Garrett Nussmeier to make his first start.

Now in his third season of backup duty, Nussmeier has displayed a cannon arm alongside a 15:7 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play rate.

Even with further opt-outs that include Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas at wide receiver, running back Logan Diggs should still overpower a Wisconsin defense that ranks 62nd in Line Yards.

The Badgers don't have the luxury of depth on offense, as running back Braelon Allen has opted out.

The top options at wide receiver are both in the portal after an uneventful season that saw quarterback Tanner Mordecai find the end zone just six times.

• Pick: LSU · Confidence: 33

Iowa will do as it always does — turn an early New Year's Day bowl game into a special teams and defensive struggle. Iowa is superior in both areas, even with a much improved defense from the Volunteers.

There are minimal portal entries from both teams, player participation for Tennessee is still in question after a large number of contributors were inactive in the season finale against Vanderbilt.

Iowa plays strictly Cover 3 on defense, a secondary package that has limited Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton all season.

• Pick: Iowa · Confidence: 1

The opt-outs are coming for Oregon, with running back Bucky Irving being the biggest name on the list thus far. The good news for the Ducks is Bo Nix's status for the game, as the quarterback doesn't want the loss to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship to be his last snap in college football.

With backup quarterback Ty Thompson in the portal, Nix may be the most valuable position player to the point spread across the entire bowl schedule.

Liberty has potential opt-outs as well, namely quarterback Kaidon Salter.

The Flames played the easiest schedule in the nation, running through Conference USA like manure through a tin horn.

Not matter if Salter plays, Liberty would need Nix and the Oregon rush defense to play its worst game of the year to win the Fiesta Bowl.

• Pick: Oregon · Confidence: 41

A soft strength of schedule has disguised the potential ceiling of the Michigan defense. Its Big Ten schedule never produced a quarterback who could run inside zone, scramble and throw a deep ball quite like Jalen Milroe.

The Wolverines will be getting peak Alabama playing on house money after escaping Jordan-Hare Stadium with a victory.

The biggest question might not be on the Michigan defensive side of the ball, but rather if Alabama can stop the ground game with Blake Corum.

J.J. McCarthy failed to pass for more than 150 yards in Michigan's final four games, putting this contest squarely on the inside zone attack of offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore.

Alabama has logged a 54% Success Rate against inside zone over the course of the season, holding Georgia to just three yards per carry in the SEC Championship game. Those numbers are enough to beat a one-dimensional Michigan offense.

• Pick: Alabama · Confidence: 22

The Longhorns have this game won in almost every direction. No team in college football can produce a rushing attack against the Horns' front seven, including Dillon Johnson and the Huskies.

Texas also has the advantage in special teams, third downs and Defensive Havoc.

Only two areas could keep Steve Sarkisian's team from playing in the national title game.

The Longhorns continue to struggle in scoring position, ranking 72nd in the nation in Finishing Drives. The red-zone issues didn’t show with so many explosives against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship, but they could creep up on the big stage in New Orleans.

Another factor is the secondary, an issue Washington can expose. Safety Jalen Catalon was a clubhouse leader but is now in the transfer portal. Safety Derek Williams Jr. will miss the first half of this game for a targeting ejection. Freshman Malik Muhammad has been targeted frequently at cornerback, allowing 20-of-30 targets to be caught.

If Texas has no complications in the red zone on offense and a decent secondary grade on defense, the Longhorns will be playing for a national title.

• Pick: Texas · Confidence: 16

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