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Welcome to college football Week 7.
For the ninth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and Stuckey pick their two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
For Week 7 of the season, they rolled with two home underdogs to pull off upsets, including one in a top-five BIg Ten battle and one between a pair of Mountain West contenders.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at nearly 4-1 at the time of writing.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Ohio State vs. Indiana and UNLV vs. Air Force on Saturday, October 17.
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College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 7
Indiana ML +150 vs. Ohio State
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Indiana was my first bet of the week, and I’d like to see a little resistance to this number. I’d be fine if it dropped from 3.5 to 3 or even 2.5 ot make me feel a little better.
Still, I think Indiana can win this game outright.
Who else is Ohio State going to throw to besides Jeremiah Smith? Devin McCuin has just 21 targets as the secondary option compared to Smith’s 66. There really aren’t any other reliable answers.
Against an Indiana defense that ranks as the best rush defense in the nation, Ohio State won’t be able to lean on explosive plays either. In fact, the Hoosiers have allowed only two runs to go for 20 yards or more all season.
The Buckeyes will need to throw the ball to someone. It might be Smith, but Indiana won't let him take over the game, and Carnell Tate isn’t walking through that door again.
On the other side, Indiana’s path to success in the run game looks much clearer. Ohio State is vulnerable to man-blocking assignments on the ground.
That sets up Turbo Richard, who has almost an even split between zone-read and man-blocking rushing attempts. Ohio State ranks 62nd in Rush EPA allowed, so Richard should be the engine for moving the chains and putting together methodical drives.
This looks like a grind of a game, and Indiana should finish with the better rushing offense in the final box score.
UNLV ML -110 vs. Air Force
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | -110 |
By Stuckey
I've liked what I've seen from Air Force quarterback Evan Medders ever since Liam Szarka went down with an injury. I also liked what I saw against North Dakota State when he got me a backdoor cover.
But I don’t think Air Force is going to need to throw it much here.
UNLV’s biggest strength is its pass defense. The Rebels boast one of the better pass defenses at the Group of 6 level, but that edge gets pretty much neutralized in this matchup. Air Force just rolled for 500 yards last week without even attempting to pass.
Teams can run on UNLV, and that’s the key here.
The Rebels also have a defensive coordinator who really hasn’t shown he knows how to stop the option. He spent 15 years in the NFL, and Air Force gave them problems last year.
The Falcons lost in the final seconds, 51-48, but the defense was a disaster in that game. That's the main reason it got away from them, but they’re much better on that side of the ball this year.
Air Force should be able to move the ball on the ground and stay ahead of the chains throughout the night.
Does UNLV have an athleticism edge on offense? Sure. But it had that against North Dakota State, too, and Jackson Arnold was still awful. The Rebels probably should have lost that game, and I bet on them. A pick-six ended up being the difference.
Arnold is going to make a couple of mistakes and stop drives himself. I like Air Force to get it done.
