National Championship Odds: Texas Among Biggest Risers from Week 6

Oct 08, 2018 11:56 AM EDT
  • Notre Dame and Texas saw their title odds increase following Week 6 of the college football season.
  • Four teams had notable drop-offs, including Oklahoma and Auburn.

Week 6 of the college football season had its share of excitement. A few games came right down to the wire, including a couple of notable upsets.

But while Saturday may have featured some good entertainment, only two teams saw a notable rise in their national championship odds.

Here are the latest numbers from Westgate.

Table defaults to preseason odds. Click on a date to sort.

Risers

Notre Dame: +1200 to +800 (7.69% to 11.11% implied probability)

Week 6 @ Virginia Tech: 45-23

In a game that was arguably Notre Dame’s final legitimate challenge on its schedule, the Irish blew out the Hokies in Blacksburg. Now, Notre Dame’s remaining opponents consist of Pitt, Navy, Northwestern, FSU, Syracuse and USC — none of which is ranked.

Texas: +8000 to +4000 (1.23% to 2.44% implied probability)

Week 6 vs. Oklahoma: Won 48-45

Texas is definitely back … inside the 50-1 range to win the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns’ rocky start had them stuck at +8000 for three straight weeks, but a win over Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl makes Texas the eighth-most likely team to win the title.

Fallers

Oklahoma: +2000 to +5000 (4.76% to 1.96% implied probability)

Week 6 vs. Texas: Lost 48-45

On the flip side of Texas’ win, the Sooners’ title odds took a big hit after Saturday’s loss. They’re still the ninth-most likely title winner, but their odds were cut by more than half this weekend.

Auburn: +5000 to +30000 (1.96% to 0.33% implied probability)

Week 6 @ Mississippi State: Lost 23-9

The Tigers mustered only nine points in Saturday’s loss to Mississippi State, and as a result fell 11 spots on this list. Auburn still has to visit both Georgia and Alabama before the year closes.

LSU: +5000 to +10000 (1.96% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 6 @ Florida: Lost 27-19

Despite being in the same position as Auburn heading into the weekend, these Tigers didn’t fall quite as far, as their meetings with ‘Bama and Georgia both come at home.

Michigan State: +10000 to +200000 (0.99% to 0.05% implied probability)

Week 6 vs. Northwestern: Lost 29-19

A lot would’ve had to go right for the Spartans to make the playoff anyway, but now their road is nearly impossible. They’ve already lost twice, and still have to play Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State.

Credit:

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Longhorns quarterback Sam Ehlinger (11) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Oklahoma Sooners in the third quarter at the Cotton Bowl.

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
MSU
MICH
+6.5
47.5
+7.5
41
LSU
MSST
-6.5
44.5
-6.5
45.5
TEM
CIN
-3.5
48.5
-3.5
47.5
ECU
UCF
+24
64.5
+21.5
65.5
USF
CONN
-31
70
-32.5
69.5
WASH
COLO
-17
51
-17.5
50
TCU
OKLA
+7.5
61
+7.5
62
WSU
ORE
-2
66
-3
69
UK
VAN
-11.5
48
-13
46.5
TENN
BAMA
+28.5
58
+29
57.5
CLEM
NCST
-17
53.5
-17.5
57.5
IOWA
MD
-13.5
51.5
-9
43.5
PUR
OSU
+12
64.5
+12
69
WISC
ILL
-25.5
54.5
-24
56.5
IND
PSU
+13
62
+14.5
59