Arizona State vs. Oregon State College Football Odds & Picks: Expect Tight Matchup Between Pac-12 Contenders

Arizona State vs. Oregon State College Football Odds & Picks: Expect Tight Matchup Between Pac-12 Contenders article feature image
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Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona State celebrates its win over Washington.

  • Arizona State and Oregon State meet on Saturday for a Pac-12 matchup.
  • Both the Sun Devils and Beavers are in second place of their respective divisions.
  • Kody Malstrom breaks down the game and gives his top pick, below.

Arizona State vs. Oregon State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 20
10:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Arizona State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3
58.5
-110o / -110u
-150
Oregon State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3
58.5
-110o / -110u
+130
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Arizona State and Oregon State are both firmly in second in both their respective divisions in the Pac 12. Both of them still have a shot to win their divisions, but both of them need help.

If Oregon loses this week to Utah, Oregon State can win out and take control of the Pac-12. This includes a season-ending showdown against the rival Ducks.

Arizona State needs a little more help. The Sun Devils need to win out as well, but need Utah to drop their next two. Utah could lose to Oregon this week, but gets lowly Colorado next week.

With a lot on the line, this has all the makings for a great Saturday nightcap.


Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State Wants To Run It Down Your Throat

You can’t talk about the Sun Devils’ offense without starting with their run game. This is one of the best rushing units in all of football and the metrics back it up.

Arizona State is currently fifth in Rush Success and third in Line Yards. This is the result of a dual-threat quarterback in Jayden Daniels paired with a stud running back in Rachaad White.

The duo has combined for 1,407 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground. Daniels can also somewhat air it out, throwing for 1,969 yards, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season.

The Sun Devils will look to pound the ball on an Oregon State defense that is well below average in stopping the run.

If Daniels can cut out the mistakes, he could take the ASU offense to another level. The Sun Devils’ Havoc Allowed has been the Achilles’ heel of this offense, ranking below average in the nation at 74th.


Arizona State Defense Needs To Create Havoc

This defense should be prepared for what is to come because like the Sun Devils, Oregon State boasts one of the best rushing units in football.

This may be a cause for concern, as Arizona State currently ranks 45th in Def Rush Success and 75th in Def Line Yards.

The interesting aspect to watch for this defense will be how often they generate Havoc. The Sun Devils rank an above-average 27th in the nation, and face an Oregon State offense that is one of the most secure teams, ranking top-5 in the nation.

This may very well come down to who has the ball last, so Havoc will play a more important role than ever before.

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Oregon State Beavers

Beavers Also Rely On The Running Game

Practically everything I said about the Arizona State offense could be copied and pasted here, because these two are nearly identical.

While Arizona State does most of its damage with a dual-threat quarterback and a running back, Oregon State just relies on one rusher and his name is B.J. Baylor.

Baylor has been one of the best running backs in football, leading Oregon State to rushing ranks of sixth in Rush Success and first in Line Yards. He has greatly benefited from a dominant offensive line, rushing for 1,050 yards and 12 touchdowns so far this season.

Where Oregon State does its damage is anytime it gets inside the 40. If the Beavers can start with good field position then you can expect points to be put on the board. This is a unit that ranks fourth in Finishing Drives.


Oregon State Scuffling On Defense

While the offense has been doing everything it can to get Oregon State within Pac-12 title contention, the defense has been a whole different story.

This unit has been getting torched all season and is at risk of the same in this matchup. The Beavers rank 90th in Def Rush Success and 102nd in Big Plays. Not ideal.

While Oregon State has one of the best offensive lines in football, the Beavers shockingly have one of the worst defensive lines, ranking 110nd in Pass Rush. Daniels will have plenty of time in the pocket to make the right throw when the Sun Devils choose to do so.


Arizona State vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona State and Oregon State match up statistically:

Arizona State Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 5 90
Line Yards 3 73
Pass Success 71 61
Pass Blocking** 14 110
Big Play 14 102
Havoc 74 61
Finishing Drives 30 72
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oregon State Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 6 45
Line Yards 1 75
Pass Success 37 38
Pass Blocking** 75 85
Big Play 24 57
Havoc 9 27
Finishing Drives 4 46
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 66 104
Coverage 45 69
Middle 8 30 23
SP+ Special Teams 86 52
Plays per Minute 102 90
Rush Rate 61.1% (22) 61.7% (19)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Arizona State vs. Oregon State Betting Pick

In a matchup that will showcase a whole lot of running, I have to side with the home dogs.

Conference championship motivation alone, Oregon State will come in with a desperate need for a win. While the number implies this to be a tight one, this game will have live play trading written all over it.

With both defenses lacking, it will be the Arizona State Havoc Allowed that will decide the game.

Oregon State’s defense will need all the help it can get and gift wrapping a turnover or two will go a long ways for the Beavers to get the upset.

I will look to buy the other side if Arizona State dips to +3 or better. I will also be monitoring for a live play pending how Oregon State does at stopping the big play.

This may very well come down to which team has the ball last.

Pick: Oregon State +3

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