College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Colorado vs. Oregon: Ducks Look to Keep CFP Hopes Alive
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- No. 7 Oregon is looking for win No. 3 in a row as it takes on Colorado at home.
- Colorado has struggled mightily on offense this season.
- Kyle Remillard previews the Pac-12 game and offers up his best bet.
Colorado vs. Oregon Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25 -113 | 49 -112o / -109u | N/A |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25 -108 | 49 -112o / -109u | N/A |
Oregon looks to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive as it welcomes the Colorado Buffaloes in a Pac-12 clash.
The Ducks sit at 6-1 on the season and are ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll thanks to a win over Ohio State in Week 2. They slipped up against Stanford earlier in October, but have bounced back with one-possession wins over California and UCLA.
The Buffaloes are 2-5 on the season with wins over FCS opponent Northern Colorado and Arizona. Colorado’s offense has shown little signs of life this season and ranks 125th in points per game.
Oregon is just 2-5 against the spread this season, but can the Ducks improve upon that against a lackluster Colorado offense?
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado Offense
The Buffaloes' offense has been one of the worst in the country, averaging 15 points and a measly 240 yards of total offense per game.
They’re a one-dimensional unit that owns the 11th-highest Rush Rate in the country at 66%.
Colorado has a two-headed running back tandem in Jarek Broussard and Alex Fontenot. The duo has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and combines for fewer than 75 rushing yards per game.
Freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis ranks third on the team in carries with 57 on the season, but has mustered up just 2.1 yards per rush.
As a passer, he hasn’t been much better, averaging 6.3 yards per pass attempt and completing 54% of his passes. Lewis averages just over 110 yards passing per game and has four touchdowns to three interceptions.
If this offense finds itself in a hole early, the stage is set for it to be a long night for the Buffaloes.
Colorado Defense
Despite the Buffaloes ranking 87th in Defensive Line Yards, they rank 57th in Rushing Success Rate.
The Colorado defense will need to dominate if the Buffs are going to upset a run-heavy Oregon offense.
Like the near upset against Texas A&M, the Colorado defense will need to be perfect if it wants to keep this game close. But that will be a tall task since the Buffs rank outside the top 100 in allowing Explosive Plays and creating Havoc.
The unit ranks 95th in tackling, according to PFF, which will be an issue against a Ducks offense that often leaves defenders on an island.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon Offense
The Oregon offense has put up 34 points and 425 yards of total offense per game this season.
The Ducks have one of the top rushing attacks in the country that averages just below 200 yards per game.
That effort is led by running back Travis Dye, who has taken charge since CJ Verdell was knocked out for the season against Stanford. Dye is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and has punched in eight touchdowns this season.
Quarterback Anthony Brown has also been effective with his legs, running in six touchdowns and averaging nearly 50 rushing yards per game. Brown has also been a strong passer, averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt and completing 62% of his passes.
The offensive unit ranks 12th in the country in creating Havoc, which will provide a major advantage against a Colorado defense that sits outside the top 100 in the same category.
Oregon Defense
Kayvon Thibodeaux is anticipated to be the top pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and there is a good reason why.
Thibodeaux has produced four sacks and 7.5 tackles for a loss in his five games this season. The defensive end is the main contributor to the Ducks' 17th-ranked Pass Rush.
The rest of the Oregon defense hasn’t been stellar to date, but controlling the line of scrimmage is going to be vital in this matchup.
Colorado has a strong Rush Rate and doesn’t present much of a threat through the pass game. The Ducks rank 49th in Line Yards and have allowed 3.5 yards per carry this season.
Oregon has produced 45 tackles for loss this season, to go along with 16 total sacks. It’s been strong at forcing turnovers, with 11 interceptions and six fumble recoveries.
Colorado vs. Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado and Oregon match up statistically:
Colorado Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 118 | 89 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 112 | 17 | |
| Big Play | 117 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 118 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 32 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon Offense vs. Colorado Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 55 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 75 | 124 | |
| Big Play | 82 | 107 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 67 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 95 | 99 |
| Coverage | 86 | 105 |
| Middle 8 | 66 | 44 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 52 | 6 |
| Plays per Minute | 107 | 39 |
| Rush Rate | 65.6% (11) | 56.9% (54) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Colorado vs. Oregon Betting Pick
If Oregon wants to remain in the conversation for the College Football playoff, it will need to improve its resume with some convincing wins.
The Ducks match up well here against a historically bad Colorado offense that has averaged 11.8 points and just over 200 yards of total offense when facing FBS teams. Colorado averaged 3.7 yards per play and 0.2 points per play in those games, which ranks among the bottom in the nation.
The only competitive game (outside of Arizona) that Colorado has played was against Texas A&M, but that was no thanks to a Buffaloes offense that mustered up seven total points.
The Colorado offense is not built to play from behind and that will be familiar territory from beginning to end against the Ducks.
Oregon will extend its home winning streak to 17 games and will go wire to wire, winning this one in impressive fashion.
Pick: Oregon -24 (Play to -26.5)
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