Kansas vs. Iowa State Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Saturday Night’s Big 12 Over/Under (October 2)

Kansas vs. Iowa State Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Saturday Night’s Big 12 Over/Under (October 2) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Getty Images. Pictured: Brock Purdy.

Kansas vs. Iowa State Odds

Kansas Odds +34.5
Iowa State Odds -34.5
Moneyline N/A
Over/Under 56.5 (-120 / +100)
Time 7:00 p.m. ET
TV FS1
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Pack a poncho if you’re going to be in Ames on Saturday night for the matchup between the Kansas Jayhawks (1-3) and Iowa State Cyclones (2-2), as there will be four straight days of rain starting on Thursday and scattered thunderstorms looking likely by game time.

After beginning the season ranked inside the top 10, the Cyclones’ backs are already against the wall entering Week 5 after suffering a disappointing two-point loss last weekend at Baylor.

Iowa State outgained the Bears by nearly 200 yards but were uncharacteristically sloppy on defense in the first half and had multiple miscues on special teams that led to 10 additional Baylor points.

Cyclone fans didn’t think their Big 12 title hopes would be hanging in the balance this soon, but here we are.

For Kansas, the improvements under head coach Lance Leipold and his staff are noticeable already despite a three-game losing streak.

The Jayhawks fell to Duke last weekend 52-33, but they accrued over 500 yards of total offense and had their first 300-yard passer, 100-yard rusher and 100-yard receiver in the same game since September of 2009.

The Kansas defense … that needs some work.


Kansas vs. Iowa State Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 2
7:00 p.m. ET
FS1

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas Offense

Even in a losing effort, last weekend’s offensive performance from the Jayhawks is something to build on, as their 530 yards was the highest mark since Week 9 of 2019.

North Texas transfer Jason Bean has been a bright spot at quarterback, averaging 250 yards of total offense per game (44th in the country) and providing a constant threat to run with his track-level speed. His 270 rushing yards is seventh-most among FBS quarterbacks.

Bean was complemented in the backfield last week by true freshman Devin Neal, who posted a career-high 107 yards and a touchdown.

Is that sustainable or a one-off performance against a lowly run defense? Kansas ranks 99th in Line Yards and 84th in Stuff Rate, which leans toward believing it’s the latter.


Kansas Defense

Defensively, it’s been all downhill since Week 1.

The Jayhawks are allowing 7.79 yards per play, have given up at least 200 rushing yards and opposing quarterbacks have completed nearly 80% of passing attempts over the last three games.

Second halves, in particular, have doomed Kansas, as they’re allowing 6.98 yards per play in the final 30 minutes.

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Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State Offense

If there’s a remedy to an ailing offense, the Kansas defense is the perfect cure.

Quarterback Brock Purdy has looked better over the last two weeks since his benching in Week 2, completing over 70% of his passes with four touchdowns.

Now, he’ll take on a Jayhawks’ secondary that ranks 130th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate.

Also, there should be no shortage of running lanes for star rusher Breece Hall, as he takes on the 126th-ranked run defense that has already allowed 16 touchdowns on the ground.


Iowa State Defense

The Cyclones’ offense is still in disarray, but their defense continues to stifle opponents, ranking in the top 10 nationally in yards per play (3.89), total defense (216 YPG) and rush yards allowed per game (67.5).

The Cyclones allowed a season-high 31 points to Baylor last week, but it was the special teams that led to 10 of those points, giving up a 98-yard kickoff return to Trestan Ebner, muffing a punt and then allowing a 41-yard punt return that resulted in a field goal.

Last week was the first time a team averaged over 2.0 yards per carry vs. the Cyclones.


Kansas vs. Iowa State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Iowa State match up statistically:

Kansas Offense vs. Iowa State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
111
46
Line Yards
99
21
Pass Success
115
24
Pass Blocking**
121
45
Big Play
73
8
Havoc
90
47
Finishing Drives
92
86
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Iowa State Offense vs. Kansas Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
104
117
Line Yards
68
123
Pass Success
65
130
Pass Blocking**
46
96
Big Play
20
118
Havoc
56
123
Finishing Drives
87
117
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
100
34
PFF Coverage
118
44
Middle 8
17
22
SP+ Special Teams
53
69
Plays per Minute
101
101
Rush Rate
58.9% (42)
51.1% (87)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Kansas vs. Iowa State Betting Pick

This is a battle of the trends on Saturday.

The over has hit in nine of the last 11 games for Kansas and the under has won out in six of Iowa State’s last eight matchups with the Jayhawks.

The opening total was 58.5 but it has dropped to 57 as of Thursday afternoon, with our Action Network PRO Report projecting this one for 53.8.

Kansas has shown it can score at a higher rate than years past, but the Jayhawks will face their toughest challenge to date against both this stingy Iowa State defense and some likely inclement weather.

Pick: Under 57

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