Maryland vs. Michigan Odds & Picks: Done Backing Terps in College Football?

Maryland vs. Michigan Odds & Picks: Done Backing Terps in College Football? article feature image
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  • Maryland travels to The Big House to take on Michigan.
  • Here's why you shouldn't expect much scoring in the opening half.
  • Kody Malstrom breaks it all down below.

Maryland vs. Michigan Odds

Saturday, Nov. 20
3:30 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Michigan Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-16
57.5
-112o / -109u
-835
Maryland Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+16
57
-112o / -109u
+500
Odds via Gun Lake Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

It’s never easy to separate from the ones that you love. Whether it’s a ex-significant other or a football team in which you’ve put your trust. As of writing, I think it is about time I file for divorce with the Maryland Terrapins.

In what was a lookahead spot for MSU, Maryland came out and floundered against the Spartans. To sum it up with one possession, they had a first and goal and ended it by missing a 30 yards field goal after a intentional grounding. Incredible.

Michigan, meanwhile, is a win and a Michigan State loss to Ohio State away from controlling its own destiny once again.

With Maryland looking for a bowl berth and Michigan with its eyes on next weekend’s huge game, this has value written all over it.


Michigan Wolverines

Efficiency The Name Of The Game For Offense

While all the news has been all about the Michigan defense, this offense can compete with the best of them. While it’s still one of the least explosive units in football, it is the most efficient by being first in Havoc Allowed.

Michigan possesses a dynamic running back duo in Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. While Corum is still out with an injury, Haskins has taken on more of a load. He finished last week’s game against Penn State with 156 yards on 31 carries.

With Michigan’s eyes set on Ohio State, this should serve as more of a tune-up game for the Wolverines. It has plenty of areas to work on, including Finishing Drives.

It will need to put up points when the scoring opportunities present themselves, especially when they get past the 40. Michigan’s defense will only be able to contain for so long, it will be up to the offense to get the job done.


Wolverines’ Defense Is Flat-Out Dominant

This defense is incredible in every facet.

The Wolverines have the best duo of defensive ends in football. Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo rank first and fourth, respectively, among edge defenders, per PFF. This unit has led Michigan to a Pass Rush ranking of second in the nation.

While ranking near top-25 in every defensive metric, the most important ranking of those is Def. Finishing Drives. Teams have found it difficult to put up points once they get past the 40 as Michigan ranks eighth in the nation.

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Maryland Terrapins

Terps May Have Trouble Moving The Ball

Maryland’s handicap in every game starts and ends with their pass attack. The run game is practically non-existent, ranking over 100th in both Rush Success and Line Yards.

The passing has struggled lately, too. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa made some bone-headed plays last week against MSU, including an intentional grounding that cost them points after starting at the goal line on first down.

He is still a lethal threat, as he has thrown for 3,105 yards and 20 touchdowns with a completion percentage of 69.3%. He will find it tough to find success this week, as Michigan has one of the best pass defenses in football.

Maryland is going to need a miracle and some lucky field position as they are 102nd in Finishing Drives, a metric that the Michigan defense ranks eighth in. Not ideal.


Defense Must Focus On Stopping The Run

Maryland’s defense may have checked out by now as this unit has been getting torched game in and game out.

They have given up 30-plus points in every game this season except one, which was a home game against Howard.

The Terps have no impressive metrics on the defensive end, especially when their focus should be the rush defense when going up against Michigan. They currently rank 89th in Def. Rush Success and 71st in Def Line Yards.

If Maryland wants to avoid the blowout, they will need to limit Haskins as much as they can. Easier said than done, but the opportunities will be there as they rank near dead even in Finishing Drives.


Michigan vs. Maryland Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Maryland match up statistically:

Michigan Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 25 89
Line Yards 67 71
Pass Success 42 59
Pass Blocking** 49 113
Big Play 78 95
Havoc 1 85
Finishing Drives 75 70
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Maryland Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 105 22
Line Yards 104 20
Pass Success 26 11
Pass Blocking** 26 2
Big Play 72 25
Havoc 93 26
Finishing Drives 102 8
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 13 67
Coverage 14 106
Middle 8 23 87
SP+ Special Teams 3 100
Plays per Minute 95 21
Rush Rate 61.8% (17) 44.5% (122)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Michigan vs. Maryland Betting Pick

Sign the divorce papers, because I am done backing the Maryland Terps.

While they started out hot behind the passing game of Tagovailoa, the Terps have cooled off with their defense not being able to stop a nose bleed.

Just because I’m not backing the Terps does not mean I’m backing Michigan, either. For a run-heavy, clock-bleeding, drive-stalling type of team, this is too many points for my liking for them to cover.

Instead, my focus will be on the under. Specifically, the first half under.

Michigan’s defense will come out strong, being more than capable of stopping the Terps’ offense. The Michigan defensive line will create disruptions and stoppages all game.

On the other end, Michigan will run it down their throats until they show they can stop them. This will result in chunks of clock coming off with the potential of no points being put on the board with Michigan’s poor Finishing Drives rate.

I will take the first half under as I believe Michigan will call off the dogs later in the game in a look-ahead spot with Ohio State on deck.

Pick: 1H Under 28.5

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