College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Minnesota vs. Purdue: Boilermakers Lead Us To Pay Window?

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Minnesota vs. Purdue: Boilermakers Lead Us To Pay Window? article feature image
Credit:

Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Purdue Boilermakers quarterbacks Aidan O’Connell, left, and Jack Plummer.

  • Purdue hosts Minnesota in a Big Ten clash that begins at Noon ET.
  • The Golden Gophers are coming off an ugly, disappointing loss to Bowling Green, while the Boilermakers edged out Illinois.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and offers up his pick.

Minnesota vs. Purdue Odds

Minnesota Odds +2.5 (-110)
Purdue Odds -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline +110 / -130
Over/Under 46.5 (-110 / -110)
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV Big Ten Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Minnesota hits the road to square off against Purdue in Saturday’s Big Ten conference matchup.

The Golden Gophers have won seven of the last eight meetings between these two programs, but the Boilermakers are primed to start a new trend.

The visiting side enters this contest following a shocking loss to Bowling Green. It was a tightly contested meeting, but the Gophers’ inability to succeed in passing situations left them in a bad spot.

In contrast, the Boilermakers persevered in a defensive battle against Illinois. It was a game where they could have widened the margin if not for some costly turnovers.

With both teams combining for 23 points last week, we could be in for another classic Big Ten grinder.


Minnesota vs. Purdue Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 2
12 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota Offense

Minnesota is built on pounding the rock. The Golden Gophers run the ball nearly 73 percent of the time. The amount of volume allows them to be successful in their contests, as they average 209 rushing yards per game.

The downside to this scheme is that it makes comebacks difficult, such as last week against Bowling Green.

Minnesota’s rushing attack is led by sophomore Treyson Potts. He’s second in the nation in rushing attempts (97), which has led to 474 yards on the ground at 4.9 yards per carry.

Where the Golden Gophers need improvement from is their passing game, which falls on Tanner Morgan.

He’s coming off a dreadful performance where he went 5-of-13 for 59 yards, including two interceptions. It was the worst performance of his four-year career and one he certainly needs to put behind him.

That said, look for Morgan to positively regress this week against Purdue.


Minnesota Defense

The Golden Gophers have been stout against the run this season, only allowing 77 yards per game. They built on that number with their effort against Bowling Green, holding the Eagles to just 22 yards rushing and 0.9 yards per carry.

The Boilermakers only carry the ball 42 percent of the time, so we’ll see this Minnesota secondary tested for the first time since their opener against Ohio State.

They’ll have an edge in this one, as they rank 38th in Passing Success Rate and 29th in coverage.

Purdue presents an interesting challenge due to the fact it utilizes two quarterbacks who each have different skill sets.

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Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue Offense

Last week, we saw a diminished Purdue offense struggle to finish drives and maintain success.

They were without starting running back King Doerue, who will not return this season due to a medical condition.

Another huge piece missing from this offense is star receiver David Bell. The standout missed the game with a concussion, with his status remaining in doubt.

As of Tuesday, Bell was still in concussion protocol.

Even with Bell’s absence, it was the Purdue passing attack that ultimately led them to victory against Illinois.

Head coach Jeff Brohm deployed both of his quarterbacks in a more even split than we’ve seen this season. Jack Plummer started the game and had early success, leading the Boilermakers on back-to-back scoring drives that ended with field goals.

However, the offense stalled throughout the second half when Aidan O’Connell entered the game. He displayed his deep-ball prowess, completing 12 passes for 182 yards. He threw two interceptions, including one in the end zone, but he also tossed the game-winning strike late in the fourth quarter.

Plummer and O’Connell thrive in different areas. O’Connell’s performance in the second half might earn him more reps going forward, which would make the offense more explosive.

However, expect Plummer to start as his composure and control of the intermediate passing game tends to set the trend for the offense.

Who will play more this week is a toss-up, but it might come down to the Boilermakers’ game script.


Purdue Defense

Purdue’s defense is in a precarious spot against the Golden Gophers. The team allowed Illinois running back Josh McCray to rush for 156 yards on 6.5 yards per carry last week.

The Boilermakers will now be facing an even more run-heavy offense with perhaps an even better lead back.

Metric-wise, Purdue holds all the advantages over Minnesota’s offense, but its most recent performance isn’t promising. Seeing a strong rushing attack for the second week in a row should benefit Purdue’s defense, though.


Minnesota vs. Purdue Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and Purdue match up statistically:

Minnesota Offense vs. Purdue Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 80 20
Line Yards 74 40
Pass Success 90 3
Pass Blocking** 65 46
Big Play 87 19
Havoc 99 34
Finishing Drives 61 17
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Purdue Offense vs. Minnesota Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 88 32
Line Yards 101 27
Pass Success 46 38
Pass Blocking** 27 56
Big Play 114 27
Havoc 55 52
Finishing Drives 62 102
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 41 27
PFF Coverage 29 86
Middle 8 37 31
SP+ Special Teams 88 66
Plays per Minute 129 63
Rush Rate 72.9% (5) 42.3% (121)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


The Boilermakers are in a position to handle the Golden Gophers, but they were in a better spot last week and came up short.

Minnesota presents a similar task to Illinois when it comes to the defensive side, so Purdue should perform better against the run. The team also has far less to worry about in the passing game.

On the offensive side of the ball, Purdue might have more success with Plummer at quarterback and establishing the run game. The Golden Gophers also rank 27th against big plays.

Bottom line, this game is going to come down to the success of Minnesota’s running game. If the Gophers can blossom and gain a lead, they could cruise to the win. However, if they fall behind their chances of coming back are slim.


Minnesota vs. Purdue Betting Pick

The Boilermakers are short home favorites and should be an even heavier favorite, according to our projections.

I’m taking the best of the number here and counting on Purdue to lead us to the betting window after the showdown to cash our winning ticket.

Pick: Purdue -2.5

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