College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M: Unique Under Play Incoming?

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M: Unique Under Play Incoming? article feature image
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  • Texas A&M will attempt to bounce back from its first loss of the season.
  • Aggies' quarterback Zach Calzada will start after Haynes King broke his leg vs. Arkansas.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the SEC duel and offers his best bet.

Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Odds

Mississippi State Odds +7 (-105)
Texas A&M Odds -7 (-115)
Moneyline +250 / -320
Over/Under 45.5 (-110 / -110)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Texas A&M Aggies welcome Mike Leach and his Bulldogs to College Station for this SEC clash.

Both teams need to rebound after dropping conference games last week.

Mississippi State outplayed LSU throughout their Week 4 game, but two first-half interceptions gave the Tigers extra opportunities to build a lead that would be just enough despite the Bulldogs’ best efforts to come back.

The Aggies came out flat in their marquee matchup with a surging Arkansas team. They fell down, 17-0, in a flash and then, lacked the firepower to mount a comeback.

This game script could be in the Aggies’ favor as they may receive some assistance from Mother Nature to deal with the air attack of Mississippi State.


Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview

Saturday, October 2
7 p.m. ET
SEC Network

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State Offense

This Mississippi State offense throws the ball a ton and that may even be an understatement judging from the last two games.

Will Rogers had 67 attempts against Memphis and 62 attempts against LSU.

He’s been very effective with the great deal of volume. Rogers is completing 75% of his passes and holds an 11:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

This could be Rogers’ toughest matchup to date as the Aggies’ secondary is the No. 1 ranked unit in Passing Success allowed. That’s also displayed by their rank of fifth in the nation in pass coverage.

The Bulldogs may be forced to come out with a different game plan, and the numbers show that they could have success.

The Bulldogs only run the ball 25% of the time but have strong results when doing so. The team’s leading rusher Dillon Johnson is averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

Mississippi State will also have the edge in the trenches against the Aggies’ defensive line. We saw just last week how successful the Razorbacks had as they ran for 197 yards on the Texas A&M defense.

Pounding the rock more could pay huge dividends for the Bulldogs.


Mississippi State Defense

We have to give credit to the Mississippi State defense for how well its done against the run. It held its opponents to just 71 yards per game and 2.8 yards per rush.

The strength of this defense will play right into the strength of the Aggies’ offense, though.

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Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M Offense

The injury to Haynes King and the implementation of Zach Calzada changed the dynamic of this offense.

Calzada doesn’t have the mobility of King, thus putting a limit on the upside of the unit.

The offensive line hasn’t helped him out much recently either. Calzada has been sacked six times over the last two games, with three of those coming against New Mexico.

He hasn’t exactly helped himself though either, as he’s been largely inefficient, completing under 53 percent of his passes.

One bright spot for this offense has been Isaiah Spiller. He entered the season as one of the best running backs in the country and has only solidified it so far.

Spiller has rushed for 345 yards at 6.6 yards per carry.

He’ll have a difficult matchup as the Bulldogs rank 11th in Rushing Success allowed, but he may need to be leaned on as he’s the only part of the offense that’s working right now.


Texas A&M Defense

The Aggies’ defense shut down opposing offenses until last week’s game against Arkansas.

They’ve allowed only 37 points all season and 20 of those were to Arkansas.

Texas A&M’s defense can’t be discounted for their performance against Arkansas, though, as the unit only allowed three points in the second half to keep the team in it.

As I mentioned earlier, the Aggies’ defense has been elite in their passing defense. Going up against a pass-heavy style offense will be a real test for this unit.


Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and Texas A&M match up statistically:

Mississippi State Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 7 74
Line Yards 51 80
Pass Success 26 1
Pass Blocking** 57 72
Big Play 100 19
Havoc 27 11
Finishing Drives 38 3
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas A&M Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 53 11
Line Yards 49 45
Pass Success 73 43
Pass Blocking** 79 114
Big Play 31 71
Havoc 62 50
Finishing Drives 109 39
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 86 68
PFF Coverage 34 5
Middle 8 75 51
SP+ Special Teams 97 25
Plays per Minute 115 86
Rush Rate 25.2% (129) 47.2% (107)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


This game will be very interesting to watch as it’s strength against strength in nearly all areas.

The rain could be a big factor in this game, though. It will cause the Bulldogs to be out of their element and may force the Aggies into their most successful one.

This game will be won in the trenches as it could be decided by which players slip and fall on the wet surface.


Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Betting Pick

There are expected thundershowers that will bring heavy amounts of rain all afternoon in College Station on Saturday.

While the forecast may lighten up by game time, the field could already be dramatically impacted.

Get your umbrellas ready Ags! We are expecting some stormy weather to follow us out of this week with elevated chances of rain on Friday and Saturday. Monday should bring us back to some nice sunny skies. Thanks & Gig'em! pic.twitter.com/t85TztTBf4

— Texas A&M Weather Broadcasting (@tamuweather) September 30, 2021

Look for both teams to lean heavily on the run as the slick football will mitigate the Bulldogs’ ability to pass.

The Aggies should hold the advantage in a game like this, but their offense has had issues in good weather, so I’ll grab the total before it drops.

Pick: Under 46 (Play to 43.5)

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